Market Close: Jan 21 Mixed
Jan 21st, 2021 by loren
Jan 21st, 2021 by loren
Jan 20th, 2021 by loren
WTI Crude futures climbed 26 cents, to $53.24 a barrel, on a 1.2% rise on Tuesday. Brent Crude futures rose 35 cents, or 0.6%, to $56.25 a barrel, adding to a 2.1% gain on Tuesday.
U.S. President-elect Jo Biden Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen urged lawmakers on Tuesday to “act big” on pandemic relief spending, reinforcing hopes of massive spending to boost growth. “Certainly the expectation is that will support better growth and better demand in the U.S.,” said National Australia Bank’s head of commodity research, Lachlan Shaw. However, the market remains concerned about near-term oil demand as the International Energy Agency cut its outlook for first-quarter oil demand by 580,000 barrels per day, due to tight lock downs and border closures to stop soaring Covid- 19 infections.
China’s capital Beijing on Wednesday announced stricter Covid-19 control measures and will shut down a subway station after the city reported its biggest daily jump in new Covid-19 cases in more than three weeks. The country is experiencing its most severe Covid-19 outbreak since March 2020 ahead of the key Lunar New Year holiday season. More than 20 provincial-level regions have asked people to stay put during the holiday. Germany on Tuesday extended a lock down for most shops and schools for another two weeks, to Feb. 14.
Traders will be watching out for U.S. crude and products inventory data due from the American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday and from the Energy Information Administration on Friday. Six analysts polled by Reuters estimated, on average, that crude stocks fell by 300,000 barrels in the week to Jan. 15, but expect gasoline stockpiles rose by 3.0 million barrels. Distillate inventories, which include diesel, heating oil and jet fuel, were seen up by 800,000 bbl.
Jan 19th, 2021 by loren
Brent Crude for March delivery rose $1.15, or 2.1%, to settle at $55.90 per barrel, while WTI Crude settled 62 cents, or 1.18%, higher at $52.98 per barrel.
Wall Street’s main indexes rose after upbeat earnings from big U.S. banks and comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen ahead of Biden’s inauguration on Wednesday. Yellen urged lawmakers to “act big” on the next coronavirus relief package, adding that the benefits outweigh the costs of a higher debt burden. “As we are approaching the beginning of the Biden administration era in the U.S., traders now have their hopes up for a rapid positive effect on markets coming from the promised ($1.9 trillion) stimulus package,” said Rystad Energy’s head of oil markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen.
Investors were also upbeat on demand in China, the world’s top crude oil importer, after data showed its refinery output rose 3% to a record high in 2020. Halliburton Co, meanwhile, predicted a recovery in the global oil and gas industry from the second quarter after the oilfield services provider beat profit estimates on cost cuts and modest gains in activity following last year’s slump.
And OPEC’s secretary general said he was cautiously optimistic the oil market would recover this year from the slump in demand brought about by the coronavirus pandemic. Crude prices rose even though the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its outlook for oil demand in 2021 but pointed to a recovery in the second half of the year to an annual average of 96.6 million barrels per day.
Jan 15th, 2021 by loren
Brent Crude fell $1.32, or 2.34%, to settle at $55.10 per barrel, after gaining 0.6% on Thursday. WTI Crude settled $1.21, or 2.26%, lower at $52.36 per barrel, having risen more than 1% the previous session. Both benchmarks, which hit their highest in nearly a year earlier in the week, were are heading for their first weekly declines in three weeks.
While producers are facing unparalleled challenges balancing supply and demand equations with calculus involving vaccine rollouts versus lockdowns, financial contracts have been boosted by strong equities and a weaker dollar, which makes oil cheaper, along with strong Chinese demand. These positives were called into question on Friday as the dollar rose and China ramped up lockdown measures. A nearly $2 trillion COVID-19 relief package in the United States unveiled by President-elect Joe Biden may increase oil demand from the world’s biggest crude consumer. Still, some analysts said the move may not be enough to stoke demand. “In terms of being able to talk about demand, Asia was the only brightspot,” said John Kilduff, Partner at Again Capital Management in New York. “This renewed lock down is striking at the heart of the demand picture in Asia. It’s trouble.”
“The COVID-19 pandemic’s spread is taking centre stage again and traders are getting increasingly worried about the long duration of European lockdown and about the new restrictions (in) China,” Bjornar Tonnage from Rystad Energy said. “The market is structurally bullish, but it may be getting too ahead of forward-looking fundamentals.”
Jan 14th, 2021 by loren
Jan 13th, 2021 by loren
“Here’s the opportunity: Oil has found support. Unfortunately, it’s because of a reduction in supply rather than an increase in demand. Oil’s down about 3% now year over year whereas energy stocks are down about 30% year over year. So, there’s definitely the possibility of a catch-up,” he said. “My favorite play here is Diamondback,” Tepper added. “It’s a pure play on the Permian [Basin]. It’s down about 30% year over year. They’re a low-cost producer. They’re one of the few companies that can actually make money if oil were to drop back down to the $30-40 range. And it’s got a pretty decent dividend as well.”
WTI Crude Oil prices were below $53 on today.
With demand falling and the Covid pandemic backing up inventories, Chantico Global founder and CEO Gina Sanchez also anticipated longer-term softness in oil prices. “The estimates are that we’re probably going to recoup about two-thirds of that demand, and that’s good, except that we went into Covid with already a massive inventory of excess supply of oil, and during Covid, guess what? Those inventories grew,” she said in the same interview. “It is going to take us about a year to burn off the excess supply that we have sitting in inventory right now before we can actually see support to oil prices,” said Sanchez, also chief market strategist at Lido Advisors.
For now, Sanchez is steering clear, noting that while demand might recover, it may not be enough to offset industry shifts years in the making. “We’ve got a lot of oil to work through before we’re actually running any kind of a shortage, and so, prices are probably going to be somewhat soft,” Sanchez said. “The long-term trend, as Mark said, … has been down. We have seen technological innovation in oil that’s been driving down prices for a decade. So, I think it’s a challenge. I think the rotation into clean energy is probably the play for the next many years.”
Jan 12th, 2021 by loren
Brent Crude was 80 cents, or 1.4%, higher at $56.44 a barrel and earlier hit $56.75, the highest since last February. WTI Crude settled 1.8%, or 96 cents, higher at $53.21 per barrel. “Saudi Arabia in particular is ensuring through its additional voluntary production cuts that the market is undersupplied if anything,” said Eugen Weinberg of Commerzbank. The Saudi cut is part of an OPEC-led deal in which most producers will hold output steady in February. Record cuts by OPEC and its allies in 2020 helped oil recover from historic lows in April. Some analysts see further gains as likely. “We advise investors with a high risk tolerance to be long Brent or to sell its downside price risks,” said Giovanni Staunovo of UBS in a report on Tuesday.
Oil also gained on the expectation of a drop in U.S. crude stockpiles. Analysts expect crude inventories to fall by 2.7 million barrels for a fifth straight week of declines. The first of this week’s two supply reports, from the American Petroleum Institute, is due at 2130 GMT. The prospect of increased economic stimulus in the United States lent further support. President-elect Joe Biden, who takes office on Jan. 20, has promised “trillions” in extra pandemic-relief spending. Concerns about demand due to rising coronavirus cases worldwide limited gains.
Chinese authorities introduced new curbs in areas surrounding Beijing on Tuesday and Japan is to widen a state of emergency beyond Tokyo.
Jan 11th, 2021 by loren
WTI Crude settled 1 cent higher at $52.25 per barrel. International benchmark Brent Crude fell 33 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $55.66 per barrel.
“The renewed concerns about demand due to very high numbers of new corona cases and further mobility restrictions, plus the stronger U.S. dollar, are generating selling pressure,” Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said. Worldwide coronavirus cases surpassed 90 million, according to a Reuters tally. Despite strict national lock downs, Britain is facing the worst weeks of the pandemic, and in Germany cases are still rising. Mainland China saw its biggest daily increase in virus infections in more than five months, authorities said, as new infections rose in Hebei, which surrounds the capital, Beijing. In Shijiazhuang, the provincial capital and epicentre of the new outbreak, people and vehicles are barred from leaving, as authorities seek to rein in the spread.
A stronger dollar, supported by hopes for more stimulus to boost the world’s largest economy, also weighed on oil prices. Oil is usually priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar makes crude more expensive for buyers with other currencies. Monday’s losses follow a strong week for oil prices. Brent and WTI rose almost 8% last week, supported by Saudi Arabia’s pledge for a voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February and March as part of a deal for most OPEC+ producers to hold production steady. “Although oil prices are declining today, the Saudi move is still keeping them at quite high levels,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s head of oil markets. “Today the correction is not massive, rather a logical adjustment caused by some bearish demand signals and by a strengthening U.S. dollar.”
The Saudi cut is expected to bring the oil market into deficit for most of 2021 even though lockdowns are hitting demand, analysts said. Brent could rise to $65 per barrel by summer 2021, Goldman Sachs said, driven by Saudi cuts and the implications of a shift in power to the Democrats in the United States.
Jan 8th, 2021 by loren
The pandemic claimed its highest U.S. death toll yet this week, killing more than 4,000 people in a single day, while China reported the biggest rise in daily cases in more than five months and Japan may extend a state of emergency beyond the greater Tokyo region.
A global equities rally pushed Japan’s Nikkei and U.S. stock benchmarks to new records, as investors focused on further stimulus to mend the economic damage of the pandemic. The U.S. Congress may soon approve more pandemic relief, a scenario that became more likely after two Georgia Democrats won Senate seats that handed Democrats control of both houses of Congress once Biden is sworn in.
“The energy complex (is) placing particular focus on the democratic victories in the Georgia elections that, in turn, boost the likelihood of larger stimulus measures,” said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates.
Jan 7th, 2021 by loren
Brent Crude was up 22 cents, or 0.41%, at $54.52 per barrel, after gaining 1.3% overnight. WTI Crude gained 23 cents, or 0.45%, to trade at $50.86 per barrel. The contract rose 1.4% on Wednesday.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, said it would voluntarily cut 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of output in February and March, after OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, including Russia, met earlier this week. “WTI crude seems poised to rise higher as the Biden administration will clamp down on U.S. crude production, the Saudis tentatively alleviated oversupply concerns with their 1-million bpd cut present, and as the dollar’s days seem numbered,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.
A lower dollar, which makes oil cheaper because the commodity is mostly traded using the greenback, is also supporting prices, analysts said. U.S. crude stocks dropped and fuel inventories rose, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories were down by 8 million barrels in the week to Jan. 1 to 485.5 million barrels, against a Reuters poll showing analysts expected a 2.1 million-barrel decline. The drop in crude stocks is a typical year-end occurrence as energy companies take oil out of storage to avoid tax bills. A sustained rise in WTI prices, though, may result in a resurgence in U.S. output. “If the U.S benchmark makes a sustained break above $50/bbl and beyond, it could encourage additional U.S. supply, which may be troublesome in the long run for many OPEC+ members,” said Kevin Solomon, energy market analyst at StoneX.
Trump supporters swarmed the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday, sending it into lock down, as Vice President Mike Pence refused a demand from the president to cancel his loss to President-elect Biden. Police have declared the situation secure and the certification of the election result has resumed.