Brent Crude futures rose $2.62, or 3.9%, to settle at $69.36 a barrel. The session high for the global benchmark was its highest since January 2020. WTI Crude rose $2.26, or 3.5% to settle at $66.09 a barrel. For the week, Brent was up 5.2%, rising for a seventh week in a row for the first time since December, while WTI was up about 7.4% after gaining almost 4% last week. Both contracts surged more than 4% on Thursday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together known as OPEC+, extended oil output curbs into April, granting small exemptions to Russia and Kazakhstan. “OPEC+ settled for a cautious approach … opting to increase production by just 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April while market participants looked for an increase of 1.5 million bpd,” said UBS oil analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Investors were surprised that Saudi Arabia had decided to maintain its voluntary cut of 1 million bpd through April even after the oil price rally of the past two months on the back of COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe.

Some forecasters revised their price expectations upward following the OPEC+ decision. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude price forecast by $5 to $75 a barrel in the second quarter and $80 a barrel in the third quarter of this year. UBS raised its Brent forecast to $75 a barrel and WTI to $72 in the second half of 2021. In addition, the market got a boost after a report showed the U.S. economy created more jobs than expected in February.

The nonfarm payroll report “shows that Americans are closer to pre-pandemic behavior that will drive strong demand for crude,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. Traders also noted the rising dollar, which hit its highest since November, was limiting the gain in crude prices. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. However, analysts and traders have said that slow physical crude sales and recovery for demand not predicted until around the third quarter suggest that the price rally is unwarranted. “The market suggests a tightness that does not exist. Therefore, we continue to believe that the price risk is mainly downward and that the current price is overshooting,” said Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at ABN Amro.

India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer and consumer, said that the OPEC+ decision to extend cuts as prices move higher could threaten the consumption led-recovery in some countries. The recovery in oil prices to pre-pandemic levels has also spurred U.S. oil drillers to return to the well pad. The oil rig count rose by one this week after rising for six straight months, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes Co.

Ministers from OPEC members and their allies started a meeting to discuss the future of an oil output cut at 1300 GMT. Analysts and traders say a four-month price rally from below $40 a barrel is now out of step with demand and that physical sales are not expected to match supply until later in 2021. But with prices above $60, some analysts have predicted OPEC+ producers will increase output by about 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) and expect Saudi Arabia to at least partially end its voluntary reduction of 1 million bpd. Three OPEC+ sources on Wednesday said some members believe that output should remain unchanged and that it was not immediately clear whether Saudi Arabia would end its voluntary cuts or extend them. “The market … can take back at least 500,000 bpd (excluding Saudi’s extra cuts) from April and even more in following months, in line with the recovery we expect in oil demand,” said Rystad’s head of oil markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen. “Some mild negative price reaction will take place, though, if the decision is to increase output. Such a development would prevent some steep stock draws that had been priced in for a while for coming months.”

In the United States, despite a record surge of more than 21 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles last week, gasoline stocks fell by the most in 30 years as refining plunged to a record low because of the Texas freeze.

Giving a floor to prices, Yemen’s Houthi forces said on Thursday that they had fired a missile at a Saudi Aramco facility in Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea city of Jeddah. There was no immediate confirmation from Saudi authorities.

Crude inventories rose by 21.6 million barrels, the most on record, to 484.6 million barrels, EIA said. Refining capacity use fell to just 56% of overall capacity, the lowest on record, as the U.S. Gulf Coast’s refining capacity use plunged to 40.9%, the lowest ever.

Brent Crude rose $1.75, or 2.8%, to $64.45 a barrel. WTI Crude settled 2.56% higher at $61.28 per barrel. Earlier, oil prices jumped after Reuters, citing three sources, reported that the OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia is considering rolling over production cuts from March into April rather than raising output. The group had previously been widely expected to ease the production cuts on Thursday. Kuwaiti Oil Minister Mohammad al-Fares said the market was being supported by optimism over vaccinations.

Also positive for prices, U.S. President Joe Biden said the United States would have enough COVID-19 vaccines for every American adult by the end of May after Merck & Co agreed to make rival Johnson & Johnson’s inoculation. Biden said he hoped that the United States would be “back to normal” at this time next year and potentially sooner.

Brent Crude dipped 99 cents, to $62.70 per barrel, after easing back from last week’s more than one-year peak above $67. WTI Crude dropped 89 cents to close at $59.75 per barrel, also down from last week’s high.

Prices slipped after a recent rally on expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, would add more oil to the market from April as they ease back on last year’s deep supply cuts. “With the speculative market heavily long, the past three sessions’ falls look corrective ahead of Thursday’s meeting,” said Jeffrey Halley, market analyst at OANDA. OPEC+, which meets on Thursday, could discuss allowing as much as 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) back into the market. OPEC oil output fell in February as a voluntary cut by Saudi Arabia added to reductions agreed to in a previous OPEC+ pact, a Reuters survey found, ending a run of seven consecutive monthly increases.

In Asia, China’s factory activity growth slipped to a nine-month low in February, which could curtail Chinese crude demand. Oil buying by the world’s top importer has recently eased. “There are signs that the physical market is not as tight as futures markets suggest,” ING Economics said in a note.

Brent Crude fell 81 cents, or 1.3%, to trade at $63.61 per barrel, and WTI Crude fell 86 cents, at $60.64 per barrel. Both contracts finished February 18% higher.

China’s factory activity growth slipped to a nine-month low in February, sounding alarms over Chinese crude buying and pressuring oil prices. “One negative is more and more talk about Chinese oil demand maybe faltering, that they bought all the oil that they’re going to need for a while,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “There’s some talk that their strategic reserves are filled up, and so some people are betting against the Chinese continuing to drive oil prices.”

Support for the market came from rising COVID-19 vaccinations stirring up economic activity along with a $1.9 trillion coronavirus-related relief package passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on Saturday. If approved by the Senate, the stimulus package would pay for vaccines and medical supplies, and send a new round of emergency financial aid to households and small businesses, which will have a direct impact on energy demand. The approval of Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 shot also buoyed the economic outlook. Outside of China, some manufacturing data was positive, helping to keep prices from moving lower. German activity hit its highest level in more than three years and Euro zone factory activity raced along, driven by rising demand.

OPEC oil output fell in February as a voluntary cut by Saudi Arabia added to agreed reductions under a pact with allies, a Reuters survey found, ending a run of seven consecutive monthly increases. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, meet on Thursday and could discuss allowing as much as 1.5 million barrels per day of crude back into the market. ING analysts said OPEC+ needs to avoid surprising traders by releasing too much supply. “There is a large amount of speculative money in oil at the moment, so they will want to avoid any action that will see (those investors) running for the exit,” the analysts said.

Brent Crude was up 18 cents, or 0.28%, at $65.42 a barrel, still close to its highest levels since January 2020. WTI Crude settled 3 cents lower at $61.67 per barrel. Both contracts rose more than $1 earlier before retreating.

“Vaccine news is helping oil, as the likely removal of mobility restrictions over the coming months on the back of vaccine roll outs should further boost the oil demand and price recovery,” UBS oil analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. But, tempering the upbeat mood, the chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said the U.S. economic recovery remained “uneven and far from complete” and it would be “some time” before the central bank considered changing policies it had adopted to help the country back to full employment.

Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said the recent oil price rise was buoyed by upbeat price forecasts from U.S. brokers. Goldman Sachs expects Brent prices to reach $70 per barrel in the second quarter from the $60 it predicted previously, and $75 in the third quarter from $65 forecast earlier. Morgan Stanley, which expects Brent to reach $70 in the third quarter, said new COVID-19 cases were falling while “mobility statistics are bottoming out and are starting to improve”. Bank of America said Brent prices could temporarily spike to $70 per barrel in the second quarter.

In the United States, traffic at the Houston ship channel was slowly returning to normal after last week’s winter storm, although production was not expected to fully restart soon. Some U.S. shale producers forecast lower oil output in the first quarter. Stockpiles of U.S. crude oil and refined products likely declined last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday, due to the disruption in Texas.

Brent Crude was up $2.04, or 3.2%, at $64.95 a barrel, while WTI Crude rose $2.25, or 3.8%, to settle at $61.49 a barrel. The U.S. benchmark crude contract for March delivery expires on Monday, and the more widely-traded April contract was up $1.91, or 3.2%, at $61.19 a barrel.

Shale oil producers in the region could take at least two weeks to fully restart normal output, sources said, as damage assessments and power disruptions slow their recovery. “The significant loss of both crude and gasoline production suggests more upside and likelihood of new highs possibly within a one-week time frame,” said Jim Ritterbusch of consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates. But with limited refining capacity, and the expectation that refiners, too, could take weeks to return to normal, oil prices may stumble from a lack of demand, said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York. “The market is behaving as if the refiners are going to come online quicker than the headlines would lead you to believe,” said Yawger. Gasoline crackspreads, an indicator of refiners’ margins have dropped by 5%.

For the first time since November, U.S. drilling companies cut the number of oil rigs operating due to the cold and snow enveloping Texas, New Mexico and other energy-producing centres, signalling even tighter supplies ahead. OPEC+ oil producers are set to meet on March 4, with sources saying the group is likely to ease curbs on supply after April given a recovery in prices, although any increase in output will likely be modest given lingering uncertainty over the pandemic. “Saudi Arabia is eager to pursue yet higher prices in order to cover its social break-even expenses at around $80 a barrel while Russia is strongly focused on unwinding current cuts and getting back to normal production,” said SEB chief commodity analyst Bjarne Schieldrop.