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Market Close: April 06 Up

Fueling Strategy: Please partial fill ONLY tonight, Wednesday prices will fall 6 cents – Be Safe
NYMEX Crude    $ 59.33 UP $.6800
NYMEX ULSD     $1.7941 UP $.0217
NYMEX Gas       $1.9663 UP $.0052
NEWS

The American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday reported a modest draw in crude oil inventories of 2.618 million barrels for the week ending April 2.

Analysts had predicted a smaller draw of 1.436 million barrels for the week. In the previous week, the API reported a build in oil inventories of 3.910 million barrels after analysts had predicted a much smaller build of 107,000 barrels.

After tanking on Monday, oil prices were trading up on the day prior to the data release as fears in the market calmed regarding additional supplies that might be brought onto the market should the talks over the Iranian nuclear deal end with lifting U.S. sanctions. WTI Closed at $59.33, or 1.28% higher on the day. Brent crude traded up at $62.79 per barrel or 1.03% up on the day.

As U.S. oil inventories shrink, U.S. oil production rose modestly to 11.1 million bpd during the week ending March 26, according to the latest data from the Energy Information Administration. It is the second increase in as many weeks. The API reported a build in gasoline inventories of 4.553 million barrels for the week ending April 2—after the previous week’s 6.012-million-barrel barrel draw. Analysts had expected a 221,000 barrel draw for the week. Distillate stocks saw an increase in inventories this week of 2.810 million barrels for the week, after last week’s 2.595-million-barrel increase. Cushing inventory figures fell by 84,000 barrels.

Have a Great Day,
Loren R Bailey, President
Fuel Manager Services Inc.
“Serving the trucking industry since 1992”
Office: 479-846-2761
Cell: 479-790-5581
 
“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” 
Fueling Strategy: Please fuel as needed tonight, Tuesday partial fill ONLY – Be Safe
NYMEX Crude    $ 58.65 DN $2.8000
NYMEX ULSD     $1.7724 DN $0.0592
NYMEX Gas       $1.9611 DN $0.0612
NEWS

Goldman Sachs is still bullish on oil and anticipates strong demand that would require OPEC+ putting another 2 million barrels per day (bpd) on the market in the third quarter, after the around 2 million bpd that the alliance and Saudi Arabia decided to return between May and July. “We forecast a larger rebound in oil demand this summer than OPEC and the IEA, requiring an additional 2 mb/d increase in OPEC+ production from July to October,” Goldman Sachs said, as quoted by CN Wire. The investment bank expects excess oil inventories to normalize by the fall of 2021.

Last week’s OPEC+ agreement to ease the cuts “comes a month sooner than we had expected,” Goldman Sachs says, noting that the increases for June and July are smaller than its analysts had anticipated. OPEC+ decided on Thursday to gradually increase collective oil production by over 1 million bpd over the next three months. The group will raise its production by 350,000 bpd in each of May and June and by more than 400,000 bpd in July. Additionally, Saudi Arabia will also gradually ease its extra unilateral cut of 1 million bpd over the course of the next few months, beginning with monthly production increases of 250,000 bpd in each of May and June.

Goldman Sachs continues to hold a bullish view on oil demand, despite the recent concerns about demand in Europe and India, which sent oil prices down by 2 percent early on Monday. At the beginning of March, Goldman Sachs said it expected Brent Crude prices to hit $80 a barrel in the third quarter this year, up by $5 compared to the previous forecast issued two weeks earlier. Even after the sell-off in oil in mid-March, Goldman said that the “big breather” was a buying opportunity for oil and continued to forecast Brent hitting $80 per barrel in the summer.

Have a Great Day,
Loren R Bailey, President
Fuel Manager Services Inc.
“Serving the trucking industry since 1992”
Office: 479-846-2761
Cell: 479-790-5581
 
“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” 

Market Close: April 01 Up

Fueling Strategy: Please fuel as needed tonight, Friday prices will drop 2 cents but Saturday we’ll see prices go back up 6 cents  – Be Safe
NYMEX Crude    $  61.45 UP $2.2900
NYMEX ULSD     $1.8316 UP $0.0618
NYMEX Gas       $2.0223 UP $0.0626
NEWS
A group consisting of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers on Thursday decided to gradually curb existing output cuts beginning next month. Starting in May an additional 350,000 barrels per day will be added to production, with another 350,000 coming on the market in June. Come July output will be increased by 450,000 barrels per day. The OPEC+ alliance is currently cutting by just over 7 million barrels per day in an attempt to prop up prices and reduce oversupply. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has voluntarily added an additional 1 million barrels per day to those cuts. Saudi Arabia said that it will begin curbing its voluntary output cuts in May.

The meeting comes shortly after the Suez Canal reopened to traffic and as the coronavirus continues to spread worldwide, with French President Emmanuel Macron ordering the country into its third national lock down to alleviate some of the pressure on hospitals. The ongoing coronavirus crisis continues to cloud the demand outlook and analysts expect this to reaffirm Saudi Arabia’s caution about the global economic recovery.

Ahead of the meeting, analysts thought the group would keep production levels consistent. Analysts at Eurasia Group noted that the last month in global oil markets “featured a significant level of volatility” and a sell-off that brought Brent crude futures down to $62 a barrel from $70, before stabilizing around $64 in recent days. “The Suez Canal incident probably helped many oil producers, as it prevented a further slide in prices,” analysts at Eurasia Group said in a research note published Wednesday.

“Once again, it is far from clear that a sustainable recovery would justify a strong cycle of OPEC+ tapering to be followed each month. Saudi Arabia’s caution about the global economic recovery was in many respects warranted,” they added. International benchmark Brent Crude Futures gained $2.38, or 3.8%, to trade at $65.08 per barrel. U.S. WTI Crude futures settled at $61.45, up more than 4%. Both contracts had previously traded in the red during the session.

Have a Great Day,
Loren R Bailey, President
Fuel Manager Services Inc.
“Serving the trucking industry since 1992”
Office: 479-846-2761
Cell: 479-790-5581
 
“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” 
Fueling Strategy: Please partial FILL Only Tonight due to Thursday prices will fall 2 cents – Be Safe
NYMEX Crude    $ 59.16 DN $1.3900
NYMEX ULSD     $1.7713 DN $0.0179
NYMEX Gas       $1.9533 DN $0.0357
NEWS
Oil prices fell on Wednesday on concerns about the market’s recovery after OPEC and its allies lowered their 2021 demand growth forecast, although strong Chinese factory activities lent some support. Brent Crude for May, which expires on Wednesday, fell 48 cents, or 0.8%, to $63.66 per barrel. The more active Brent contract for June was down 53 cents, or 0.83%, at $63.64 a barrel. WTI Crude futures declined $1.39, or 1.9%, to $59.16 per barrel.

OPEC+ has lowered its oil demand growth forecast for this year by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), a report from its experts panel meeting seen by Reuters showed. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, are set to meet on Thursday, to decide on output policy. “Given this pessimistic outlook, it seems likely that the production quotas will be left in place for another month,” said Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg. OPEC+ are currently curbing output by just over 7 million bpd in a bid to support prices and reduce oversupply. Saudi Arabia has added to those cuts with an additional one million bpd. “The oil market is still playing a guessing game today as to what supply policy OPEC+ will set out at tomorrow’s meeting, but the $64 per barrel Brent price signals that traders expect a cautious approach from the alliance,” said Rystad Energy’s analyst Louise Dickson.

Kuwait’s Oil Minister Oil Mohammad Abdulatif al-Fares expressed “cautious optimism” on Wednesday that global oil demand will improve as COVID-19 vaccination programmes gather pace and industrial output recovers. OPEC oil output rose in March as higher supply from Iran countered reductions by other members under a pact with allies, a Reuters survey found, a headwind for its supply-limiting efforts if Tehran’s boost is sustained.

Meanwhile, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a bigger than expected build in U.S. crude stocks. Traders will be eying data later on Wednesday from the U.S. Energy Information (EIA) for further guidance. Oil prices found some support as China’s manufacturing activity expanded at the quickest pace in three months in March as factories cranked up production after a brief lull during the Lunar New Year holidays.

Have a Great Day,
Loren R Bailey, President
Fuel Manager Services Inc.
“Serving the trucking industry since 1992”
Office: 479-846-2761
Cell: 479-790-5581
 
“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” 
Fueling Strategy: Please fuel as needed today/tonight – Be Safe
NYMEX Crude    $ 61.56 UP $.5900
NYMEX ULSD     $1.8098 DN $.0002
NYMEX Gas       $1.9952 UP $.0279
NEWS
Oil futures ended higher Monday, shaking off earlier gains, with traders expecting shipping delays to persist, even as one of the world’s largest container vessels has been freed in the Suez Canal. The ship had run aground nearly a week ago, blocking the flow of global trade goods, including crude oil, through the crucial waterway. “The release of the tanker frees the bottleneck allowing awaiting oil and petroleum products” to pass through, but “there will still be a delay in their arrival,” said James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics. He also said “many of the vessels are empty returning to Europe to pick up cargoes,” so “we can expect congestion in European ports for a while.” Freight rates should “normalize in a few weeks and we will see a bit of downward pressure on crude and product prices,” said Williams. The Suez Canal Authority announced on Monday that the container ship, known as the Ever Given, was successfully refloated. The vessel was moving north to an anchor point, and shipping traffic began to move Monday afternoon, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday, noting that over 360 vessels were waiting to pass through the canal.

While the development in the Suez Canal is promising for the return of oil shipments through the water conduit, “due to the large number of vessels that have accumulated, it could still be days or weeks until the canal is fully back to normal operations,” said Louise Dickson, oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy. Some leftover downstream ripple effects should be expected in the meantime,” she said in daily commentary, adding that “oil loadings, as well as some oil demand could be affected as manufacturers may have to close or pause production as they wait for delayed goods to arrive at plants.”

Against that backdrop, West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery,  the U.S. benchmark, rose 59 cents, or 1%, to settle at $61.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the highest front-month contract finish since March 17, according to Dow Jones Market Data. May Brent crude added 41 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $64.98 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

Have a Great Day,
Loren R Bailey, President
Fuel Manager Services Inc.
“Serving the trucking industry since 1992”
Office: 479-846-2761
Cell: 479-790-5581
 
“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.”

Market Close: March 26 Up

Fueling Strategy: Please partial fill ONLY today/tonight, Saturday prices will drop 8 cents then Sunday prices will go back UP 6.5 cents – Be Safe
NYMEX Crude    $ 60.97 UP $2.4100
NYMEX ULSD     $1.8100 UP $0.0655
NYMEX Gas       $1.9673 UP $0.0464
NEWS
Oil prices bounced back on Friday from a plunge a day earlier on concerns that a large container ship that ran aground in the Suez Canal may block the vital shipping lane for weeks, squeezing supply.

Prices, however, were still headed for a third consecutive weekly loss. Brent Crude settled 4.23% higher at $64.57 per barrel, after dropping 3.8% on Thursday. WTI Crude advanced 4.12% to settle at $60.97 per barrel, having tumbled 4.3% a day earlier. Both benchmarks were on track for a weekly loss of more than 3%, following a more than 6% decline last week.

The trapped container ship is blocking traffic in the Suez Canal, one of the world’s busiest shipping channels for oil and refined fuels, grain and other trade between Asia and Europe. Officials stopped all ships entering the canal on Thursday, and a salvage company said the vessel may take weeks to free. “Expectations that the blockage of the Suez Canal may last for weeks raised fears of supply tightness in oil markets,” said Nissan Securities researcher Yasushi Osada.

“But lingering worries that a fresh wave of lock downs in Europe and elsewhere may slow a recovery of global fuel demand are expected to limit price gains,” he said. Countries in Europe are renewing restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19, which will likely reduce fuel demand from the region. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has seen its biggest increase in coronavirus cases since January. In parts of western India, authorities ordered people indoors as new infections hit the highest level in five months.

The oil market was also under pressure as producers had difficulty selling to Asia, especially China. Asian buyers instead took cheaper oil from storage while refinery maintenance has reduced demand, industry sources said.

Have a Great Day,
Loren R Bailey, President
Fuel Manager Services Inc.
“Serving the trucking industry since 1992”
Office: 479-846-2761
Cell: 479-790-5581
 
“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” 
Fueling Strategy: Please keep tanks topped today/tonight, Friday prices are going to jump back UP 8 cents the Saturday prices will drop back down 8 cents – Be Safe
NYMEX Crude    $ 58.56 DN $2.6200
NYMEX ULSD     $1.7478 DN $0.0778
NYMEX Gas       $1.9209 DN $0.0681
NEWS
Oil prices fell on Thursday as a new round of coronavirus restrictions in Europe revived worries about demand, even as tug boats struggled to move a stranded container ship blocking crude oil carriers in the Suez Canal.

Brent Crude slid 3.8% to $61.95 per barrel. WTI Crude dropped 4.28% to settle at $58.56 per barrel. Both contracts jumped about 6% on Wednesday after a ship ran aground in the Suez Canal, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes. The Suez Canal Authority said on Thursday it had suspended traffic temporarily while eight tugs work to free the vessel. “We believe that the incident mostly creates noise in the market and should remain without any lasting fundamental impact,” said Norbert Rücker, analyst at Julius Baer bank. Wood Mackenzie’s vice president, Ann-Louise Hittle, said a few days of delays in crude or product travelling through the Suez Canal to Europe and the United States should not have a prolonged impact on prices in those markets.

The impact of the Suez Canal blockade on oil prices is also limited as the destination of most oil tankers is Europe, but European demand is currently weak due to a new round of lockdowns. “If Europe was in a better state in its COVID-19 battle, then the disruption would possibly create a more prolonged issue but this is not the case. That is why traders today quickly corrected some of the previous day’s gains,” said Rystad Energy’s analyst Bjornar Tonhaugen. The technical manager of the ship said another effort to re-float the vessel will be undertaken later in the day after an earlier attempt failed. The salvage company said it might take weeks.

Given the persistent demand worries and falling prices, expectations are growing that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, will roll over their current supply curbs into May at a meeting scheduled for April 1, four OPEC+ sources told Reuters. “Oil markets are unlikely to renew their upward momentum aggressively until OPEC+’s next meeting in early April, which should leave production cuts unchanged,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA. The global oil market was also under pressure as producers faced difficulties selling to Asia, especially China. Asian buyers instead took cheaper oil from storage while refinery maintenance has reduced demand, industry sources said.

A strong dollar also weighed on oil prices. The dollar hit a new four-month high against the euro as the U.S. pandemic response continued to outpace Europe’s.

Have a Great Day,
Loren R Bailey, President
Fuel Manager Services Inc.
“Serving the trucking industry since 1992”
Office: 479-846-2761
Cell: 479-790-5581
 
“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” 

Market Close: March 24 Up

Fueling Strategy: Please partial fill only tonight, Thursday prices will drop 8 cents – Be Safe
NYMEX Crude    $ 61.18 UP $3.4200
NYMEX ULSD     $1.8256 UP $0.0767
NYMEX Gas       $1.9890 UP $0.0926
NEWS
Oil rose more than 6% on Wednesday after a ship ran aground in the Suez Canal, and worries that the incident could tie up crude shipments gave prices a boost after a slide over the last week. The crude benchmarks, U.S. crude and London-based Brent, added to gains after U.S. inventory figures showed a further rebound in refining activity, suggesting U.S. refiners are mostly recovered from the cold snap that slammed Texas in February. Brent Crude gained $3.69, or 6%, to trade at $64.48 a barrel, after tumbling 5.9% the previous day. WTI Crude climbed $3.42, or 6.1%, to $61.18, having lost 6.2% on Tuesday.

The gains appeared to stabilize the market that had slumped after early this month, when oil prices hit their highest levels this year earlier on expectations for demand recovery that have since been dashed as European nations re-entered lockdowns to halt another wave of the pandemic. Oil has recovered from historic lows reached last year as OPEC and its allies made record output cuts. On Tuesday, both benchmarks touched their lowest since February. A giant container ship has been blocking the Suez Canal for more than a day, but it has been partially refloated, with traffic along the fastest shipping route from Europe to Asia expected to resume soon, port agent GAC said on Wednesday. “Price support is coming courtesy of a transport blockage,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM. “Yet market sentiment will likely struggle to shake off its newfound bearish trend.”

Oil prices briefly pared gains after U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed crude, gasoline and distillate stocks rose last week despite refinery runs recovering after a winter storm shut Texas refineries last month. “The refiners are coming out of maintenance and recovering from the power outages. The expectation is now that they’re getting back to work, we will see crude inventories trending lower in the coming weeks,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

Italy, France and other European countries have re-imposed movement restrictions. But German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she was reversing a decision for a stricter Easter shutdown. Germany is Europe’s biggest oil consumer.

OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, meet on April 1 to consider whether to unwind more of their output cuts.

Have a Great Day,
Loren R Bailey, President
Fuel Manager Services Inc.
“Serving the trucking industry since 1992”
Office: 479-846-2761
Cell: 479-790-5581
 
“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.”
Fueling Strategy: Please fuel as needed today/tonight, Wednesday prices will go up one penny then Thursday prices will drop 8 cents – Be Safe
NYMEX Crude    $ 57.76 DN $3.8000
NYMEX ULSD     $1.7489 DN $0.0804
NYMEX Gas       $1.8964 DN $0.0634
NEWS
Oil prices fell more than 4% on Tuesday, hit by concerns over new pandemic curbs and slow vaccine rollouts in Europe as well as a stronger dollar. Brent Crude were down by $2.61, or 4%, to $62.01 a barrel, having hit a low of $61.41. WTI Crude U.S. crude futures fell by $2.71, or 4.4%, to $57.76, after falling to as low as $58.47. Both contracts traded near lows not seen since February 12. The front-month Brent spread flipped into a small contango for the first time since January.

Contango is where the front-month contracts are cheaper than future months, and could encourage traders to put oil into storage. “Continental Europe is tightening the coronavirus measures and thereby further restricting mobility,” Commerzbank analysts said. “This is likely to have a correspondingly negative impact on oil demand.” Extended lock downs are being driven by the threat of a third wave of infections, with a new variant of the coronavirus on the continent. Germany, Europe’s biggest oil consumer, is extending its lockdown until April 18 and asked citizens to stay home to try to stop a third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nearly a third of France entered a month-long lock down on Saturday following a jump in COVID-19 cases in Paris and parts of northern France.

A stronger U.S. dollar also weighed on prices. As oil in priced in U.S. dollars, a stronger greenback makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Physical crude markets are indicating that demand is lower, much more so than the futures market. “Physical prices have been weaker than futures have been suggesting for several weeks now,” said Lachlan Shaw, head of commodity research and National Australia Bank.

Have a Great Day,
Loren R Bailey, President
Fuel Manager Services Inc.
“Serving the trucking industry since 1992”
Office: 479-846-2761
Cell: 479-790-5581
 
“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” 

Market Close: March 22 Up

Fueling Strategy: Please fuel as needed today/tonight – Be Safe
NYMEX Crude    $ 61.55 UP $.1300
NYMEX ULSD     $1.8293 UP $.0070
NYMEX Gas       $1.9598 UP $.0167
NEWS
Oil steadied on Monday as hopes for a pick-up in demand later this year helped arrest last week’s broad sell-off, but prices stayed under pressure as new European coronavirus lock downs made a quick recovery look less likely.

Brent Crude was up 6 cents or 0.1% to $64.59 a barrel, while WTI Crude for delivery in April gained 13 cents to settle at $61.55 per barrel. The more active U.S. crude futures for delivery in May rose 14 cents or 0.2% to $61.58 a barrel. Both contracts fell more than 6% last week after making steady gains for months on the back of output cuts and an expected demand recovery. “Oil (had) its worst week this year as concerns grow over a flaring up in COVID-19 cases across Europe,” Dutch bank ING said in a note. “This comes at a time when there are clear signs of weakness in the physical oil market.” Physical markets have come under pressure as refiners around the world, including China and the United States, begin maintenance activities.

Chinese refinery maintenance season is due to peak in May and begin tapering in June, traders have said, depriving some crude grades such as those in West Africa of their main outlet. Nearly a third of French people entered a month-long lockdown on Saturday, while Germany plans to extend its lockdown into a fifth month, according to a draft proposal. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned on Monday that the third wave of COVID-19 infections sweeping across Europe could be heading towards Britain. “Vaccination campaigns haven’t been as fast as the market had hoped for and consequently this will have an effect on the oil demand recovery, which in turn hurts prices,” said Louise Dickson, oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy.

While a broad economic recovery remains elusive, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser was optimistic on longer-term prospects for the world’s top oil exporter. On Sunday Nasser said global oil demand was on track to reach 99 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of 2021. “While I think demand is going to improve further as more economies ease travel restrictions in the coming months, the impact of this will be offset to some degree by rising oil supply,” Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at ThinkMarkets said.“OPEC+ will be easing supply restrictions slowly, while U.S. shale production is likely to ramp up due to the attractive oil prices again. All told, I can’t see oil prices rising significantly further.” “I think Brent will struggle to stay above $70 and reckon WTI is going to average around $60 per barrel in 2021,” he added.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, together known as OPEC+, have put in place unprecedented production cuts to balance global markets after demand plunged during the COVID-19 pandemic.

U.S. drillers meanwhile are starting to take advantage of the recent spike in prices, adding the most rigs since January in the week ending last Friday.

Have a Great Day,
Loren R Bailey, President
Fuel Manager Services Inc.
“Serving the trucking industry since 1992”
Office: 479-846-2761
Cell: 479-790-5581
 
“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.”

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