July 24th Fueling Strategy: Please, If possible, “PARTIAL FILL ONLY TODAY/TONIGHT” Thursday prices will DROP 2.5 Cents ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 76.96 DN $1.4400

NYMEX ULSD     $2.4099 DN $0.0249

NYMEX Gas       $2.4141 DN $0.0565

NEWS

Supply-demand dynamics, inventory fluctuations, and geopolitical tensions characterize the crude oil market landscape. Analysts at Morgan Stanley project the market to reach equilibrium by the fourth quarter of this year, potentially transitioning to a surplus by 2025. As traders await crucial US oil inventory data, the market is also reacting to geopolitical events, such as the Israeli attack on a Yemeni shipping terminal in retaliation for a recent drone attack on Israel. Also, a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s largest Black Sea oil refinery may cause global supply disruption. Despite these tensions, the short-term outlook for oil prices remains bearish, influenced by ample inventories and weak demand.

Traders are focusing on the release of US oil inventory data. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will provide its estimates on Tuesday. The prior week’s report showed US crude oil inventories declining by 4.44 million barrels for the week ending July 12. Today’s API report is expected to show a smaller draw of -2.47 million barrels. On Wednesday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its report, which is expected to show a build of 0.7 million barrels, a first in three weeks.

In recent market performance, crude oil prices fell to their lowest in over a month on July 23. Crude oil September futures traded at $76.40 per barrel after failing to trade through contract highs of $85.06 on June 2022. Traders have primarily ignored escalating Middle Eastern and Russia-Ukranian tensions, focusing instead on weak technical outlooks, soft demand, and possibly a win by Trump in the upcoming November presidential election. Trump has vowed to “Drill Baby, Drill” on the first day in office, leading to significant supply to the global oil markets.

The short-term forecast for oil prices remains bearish, with ample inventories and weak demand signaling continued downward pressure. However, geopolitical tensions and potential supply disruptions could provide some support. 

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE  

July 23 Out After 09:00 to 11:00 CST

July 26 Out After 15:00 CST

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 31-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“Coming Together is the Beginning; Keeping Together is Progress; Working Together is Success”  ~ Henry Ford

July 23rd Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT, Wednesday prices will go UP 1.5 Cents ~ Be Safe Today

NMEX Crude      $ 79.78 DN $.3500

NYMEX ULSD     $2.4348 UP $.0157

NYMEX Gas       $2.4706 UP $.0202

NEWS

Sep WTI crude oil on Monday closed down -0.35 (-0.31%), and Sep RBOB gasoline closed up +1.46 (+0.60%).

Crude oil prices on Monday extended last Friday’s sharp losses on concern about the global economy and US political uncertainty.  China’s -10 bp rate cut on Monday reinforced worries about China’s weak economy.  The markets were already worried about Asian economic growth after Japan’s Cabinet Office last Friday cut its Japan 2024 GDP projection to +0.9% from a previous estimate of +1.3%.   Meanwhile, US political uncertainty increased after President Biden on Sunday dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Vice President Harris. 

Crude has support from wildfires in Canada that threaten to curb Canadian crude production.  Rystad Energy said last Friday that 52 out-of-control wildfires in Alberta, Canada, threaten nearly 500,000 bpd of crude oil sands output and pipeline shipments to the US.

A decline in crude oil in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Last Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -20% w/w to 74.53 million bbl as of July 12.

In a bearish factor, Russia’s crude exports in the week to July 14 rose by +200,000 bpd to 2.97 million bpd, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.  Also, higher-than-expected Russian crude output is bearish for oil prices.  Russian crude production averaged 9.078 million bpd in June, above its agreed target of 9.049 million bpd.  

OPEC+ rolled out a plan to restore some crude production in Q4, which sparked worries about a glut in global oil supplies.  On June 2, OPEC+ extended the 2 million bpd of voluntary crude production cuts into Q3 but said they would gradually phase out the cuts over the following 12 months, beginning in October.  OPEC pledged to extend its crude production cap at about 39 million bpd to the end of 2025.  Also, the UAE was given a 300,000 bpd boost to its production target for 2025.  In June, OPEC crude production fell -80,000 bpd to 26.98 million bpd.

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE  

July 19 After Lunch

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 31-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“Coming Together is the Beginning; Keeping Together is Progress; Working Together is Success”  ~ Henry Ford

July 20th Fueling Strategy: If possible, Please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY TODAY/TONIGHT” Sunday prices will DROP 7 Cents ~ Be Safe

NYEX Crude      $  80.13 DN $2.6900

NYMEX ULSD     $2.4868 DN $0.0677

NYMEX Gas       $2.5164 DN $0.0660

NEWS

August WTI crude oil on Friday closed down -2.69 (-3.25%), and Aug RBOB gasoline closed down -6.60 (-2.62%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday closed sharply lower, with crude sliding to a 1-month low.  A stronger dollar on Friday undercut energy prices.  Losses in crude accelerated Friday after the S&P 500 dropped to a 2-1/2 week low, which undercut confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand.  

Friday’s action by Japan’s Cabinet Office to cut its Japan 2024 GDP projection to 0.9% from a previous estimate of 1.3% was bearish for energy demand and crude oil prices. Crude has support from wildfires in Canada that threaten to curb Canadian crude production.  On Friday, Rystad Energy said 52 out-of-control wildfires in Alberta, Canada, threaten nearly 500,000 bpd of crude oil sands output and pipeline shipments to the US. A decline in crude oil in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -20% w/w to 74.53 million bbl as of July 12.

In a bearish factor, Russia’s crude exports in the week to July 14 rose by +200,000 bpd to 2.97 million bpd, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.  Also, higher-than-expected Russian crude output is bearish for oil prices.  Russian crude production averaged 9.078 million bpd in June, above its agreed target of 9.049 million bpd.

OPEC+ rolled out a plan to restore some crude production in Q4, which sparked worries about a glut in global oil supplies.  On June 2, OPEC+ extended the 2 million bpd of voluntary crude production cuts into Q3 but said they would gradually phase out the cuts over the following 12 months, beginning in October.  OPEC pledged to extend its crude production cap at about 39 million bpd to the end of 2025.  Also, the UAE was given a 300,000 bpd boost to its production target for 2025.  In June, OPEC crude production fell -80,000 bpd to 26.98 million bpd.

Crude oil prices have underlying support from the Hamas-Israel conflict.  Israel’s military continues to conduct operations in Gaza, and there is the continued risk that the war might spread to Hezbollah in Lebanon or even to a direct conflict with Iran.  Meanwhile, ongoing attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have forced shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting global crude oil supplies.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 12 were -4.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were +0.03% above the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -6.7% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending July 12 was unchanged w/w and matched a record high of 13.3 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending July 19 fell -1 rig to a 2-1/2 year low of 477 rigs.  The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
 

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE  

July 19 After Lunch

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 31-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“Coming Together is the Beginning; Keeping Together is Progress; Working Together is Success”  ~ Henry Ford

July 19th Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED TODAY/TONIGHT, Saturday prices will go up less than a penny ~ Be Safe Today!

NYEX Crude      $  82.82 DN $.0300

NYMEX ULSD     $2.4868 DN $.0072

NYMEX Gas       $2.5164 UP  $.0151

NEWS

August WTI crude oil on Thursday closed down -0.03 (-0.04%), and Aug RBOB gasoline closed up +1.51 (+0.60%). Crude oil and gasoline prices Thursday gave up an early advance and settled mixed.  A stronger dollar Thursday weighed on energy prices.  Crude prices also turned lower Thursday after stocks erased an early rally and retreated, which undercut confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand.

Crude prices Thursday initially moved higher as wildfires in Canada threatened to cut 400,000 bpd of oil production.  Crude also has carryover support from Wednesday when the  EIA reported crude inventories fell more than expected to a 5-month low. Comments Thursday from ECB President Lagarde were bearish for crude when she said, “The risks to economic growth are tilted to the downside, and a weaker world economy or an escalation in trade tensions between major economies would weigh on Eurozone growth.” Crude has support from wildfires in Canada that threaten to curb 400,000 bpd of Canadian crude production, putting crude oil pipeline shipments to the US at risk.  Hot weather in Alberta has sparked 50 out-of-control blazes and has reduced Canada’s crude production.

Thursday’s global economic news was mixed for energy demand and crude prices.   On the negative side, US weekly continuing claims rose +20,000 to a 2-1/2 year high of 1.867 million, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 1.856 million.  Also, Eurozone May construction output fell -0.9% m/m, the third straight monthly decline and the biggest drop in 14 months.  On the positive side, the US July Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose +12.6 to 13.9, stronger than expectations of 2.9.

In a bearish factor, Russia’s crude exports in the week to July 14 rose by +200,000 bpd to 2.97 million bpd, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.  Also, higher-than-expected Russian crude output is bearish for oil prices.  Russian crude production averaged 9.078 million bpd in June, above its agreed target of 9.049 million bpd.  

Crude oil prices have underlying support from the Hamas-Israel conflict.  Israel’s military continues to conduct operations in Gaza, and there is the continued risk that the war might spread to Hezbollah in Lebanon or even to a direct conflict with Iran.  Meanwhile, ongoing attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have forced shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting global crude oil supplies. A decline in crude oil in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -20% w/w to 74.53 million bbl as of July 12.

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE  

July 19 After Lunch

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 31-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“Coming Together is the Beginning; Keeping Together is Progress; Working Together is Success”  ~ Henry Ford

July 18th Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT, Friday prices will go UP 3 Cents ~ Be Safe Today

NYEX Crude      $  82.85 UP $2.0900

NYMEX ULSD     $2.4940 UP $0.0448

NYMEX Gas       $2.5013 UP $0.0238

NEWS

August WTI crude oil (CLQ24) on Wednesday closed up +2.09 (+2.59%), and Aug RBOB gasoline closed up +2.38 (+0.96%). Crude oil and gasoline prices Wednesday settled moderately higher.  Wednesday’s slump in the dollar index to a 3-3/4 month low is bullish for energy prices.  Gains in crude accelerated Wednesday after weekly EIA crude inventories fell more than expected to a 5-month low.  However, demand concerns limited gasoline gains after weekly EIA gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly increased.

Wednesday’s US economic news was supportive of energy demand and crude prices.   Jun housing starts rose +3.0% m/m to 1.353 million, stronger than expectations of 1.300 million.  Also, Jun building permits, a proxy for future construction, rose +3.4% m/m to 1.446 million, stronger than expectations of 1.400 million.  In addition, Jun manufacturing production rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m. Weakness in the crude crack spread is bearish for crude prices.  Wednesday’s crack spread fell to a 6-month low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil and refining it into gasoline and distillates.

In a bearish factor, Russia’s crude exports in the week to July 14 rose by +200,000 bpd to 2.97 million bpd, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.  Also, higher-than-expected Russian crude output is bearish for oil prices.  Russian crude production averaged 9.078 million bpd in June, above its agreed target of 9.049 million bpd.

Crude oil prices have underlying support from the Hamas-Israel conflict.  Israel’s military continues to conduct operations in Gaza, and there is the continued risk that the war might spread to Hezbollah in Lebanon or even to a direct conflict with Iran.  Meanwhile, ongoing attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have forced shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting global crude oil supplies.

A decline in crude oil in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -20% w/w to 74.53 million bbl as of July 12. OPEC+ rolled out a plan to restore some crude production in Q4, which sparked worries about a glut in global oil supplies.  On June 2, OPEC+ extended the 2 million bpd of voluntary crude production cuts into Q3 but said they would gradually phase out the cuts over the following 12 months, beginning in October.  OPEC pledged to extend its crude production cap at about 39 million bpd to the end of 2025.  Also, the UAE was given a 300,000 bpd boost to its production target for 2025. A decrease in OPEC crude output is positive for oil prices.  OPEC’s June crude production fell -80,000 bpd to 26.98 million bpd.

Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was mixed for crude prices.  On the positive side, EIA crude inventories fell -4.87 million bbl to a 5-month low, a larger draw than expectations of -1.08 million bbl.  Also, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell by -875,000 bbl.  On the negative side, EIA gasoline supplies unexpectedly rose +3.3 million bbl versus expectations of a -1.23 million bbl draw.  Also, EIA distillate stockpiles rose +3.45 million bbl, well above expectations of a +200,000 bbl increase.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 12 were -4.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were +0.03% above the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -6.7% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending July 12 was unchanged w/w and matched a record high of 13.3 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending July 12 fell -1 rig to a 2-1/2 year low of 478 rigs.  The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE  

July 19 After Lunch

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 31-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“Coming Together is the Beginning; Keeping Together is Progress; Working Together is Success”  ~ Henry Ford

7/17/24 Fueling Strategy: Please, If possible, “PARTIAL FILL ONLY TODAY/TONIGHT” Thursday prices will DROP 4.5 Cents ~ Be Safe

NYEX Crude      $  80.76 DN $1.1500

NYMEX ULSD     $2.5136 DN $0.0448

NYMEX Gas       $2.4916 DN $0.0141

NEWS

WTI Crude Oil futures struggled to hold footing Monday after Chinese GDP came in at 4.7% y/y Sunday night, lower than the 5.1% forecast and the lowest since Q1 2023.

Although Industrial Production for June did beat at 5.3% versus 4.9%, it slowed from the prior month’s while Retail Sales also missed and Fixed Asset Investment hit a four-month low. The slate of poor economic data played into the “slowing China” narrative and left a difficult path for Crude Oil which has hit the lowest since June 26th this morning.

U.S. Retail Sales data came in better than expected this morning, which reinforces the idea of a strong economy domestically, and one that can support prices at the pump.

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE  

July 19 After Lunch

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 31-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“Coming Together is the Beginning; Keeping Together is Progress; Working Together is Success”  ~ Henry Ford

Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED TODAY/TONIGHT”  Prices will go up less than  1/2 cents Wednesday~ Be Safe

NYEX Crude      $  81.91 DN $.3000

NYMEX ULSD     $2.5136 UP $.0040

NYMEX Gas       $2.4916 DN $.0237

NEWS

LONDON, July 16 (Reuters) – Oil prices declined more than 1% on Tuesday on worries of a slowing Chinese economy crimping demand and despite a growing consensus the U.S. Federal Reserve could begin cutting its key interest rate as soon as September. Brent futures were down $1.31, or 1.54%, to $83.54 a barrel at 1317 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $1.41, or 1.72%, to $80.50.

The weaker Chinese economic data “cast some doubts on whether market participants are being overly optimistic” regarding China’s oil demand outlook, IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong wrote in an email.

The world’s second-largest economy grew 4.7% in April-June, official data showed, its slowest rate since the first quarter of 2023 and missing a 5.1% forecast in a Reuters poll. It slowed from the previous quarter’s 5.3% expansion, hamstrung by a protracted property downturn and job insecurity.

“Its 2Q GDP and retail sales figures had surprised on the downside by a significant margin, while anticipation for stronger stimulus measures at the Third Plenum may face the risk of disappointment,” Yeap added, referring to a key economic leadership meeting in Beijing this week.

n the U.S., Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday the three U.S. inflation readings over the second quarter of this year “add somewhat to confidence” that the pace of price increases is returning to the central bank’s target in a sustainable fashion, remarks which market participants interpreted as indicating that a turn to interest rate cuts may not be far off.

Lower interest rates decrease the cost of borrowing, which can boost economic activity and oil demand.

Some analysts cautioned about being overly bullish as expected weakness in some macroeconomic data from the U.S. could still indirectly hurt oil demand in the near term.

“Macro factors are not in favour of higher oil prices in the near term (capped below $85/barrel for WTI crude) due to the prospect of weaker U.S. retail sales for June that are due later today,” OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong wrote in an email.

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE  

July 19 After Lunch

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 31-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“Coming Together is the Beginning; Keeping Together is Progress; Working Together is Success”  ~ Henry Ford

Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED TODAY/TONIGHT, Prices are down less than 1/2 cent today and will drop another 3/4 cent Sunday~ Be Safe Today

NYEX Crude      $  82.21 DN $.4100

NYMEX ULSD     $2.5096 DN $.0086

NYMEX Gas       $2.5153 DN $.0025

NEWS

NEW YORK, July 12 (Reuters) – Oil futures prices settled slightly lower on Friday as investors weighed weaker U.S. consumer sentiment against mounting hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Brent crude futures settled 37 cents lower to $85.03 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 41 cents, or 0.5%, to close at $82.21 a barrel. For the week, Brent futures fell more than 1.7% after four weeks of gains. WTI futures posted 1.1% weekly decline.

A monthly survey by the University of Michigan showed U.S. consumer sentiment fell to an eight-month low in July, although inflation expectations improved for the next year and beyond. The U.S. Labor Department said the producer price index (PPI) rose 0.2% in June, slightly more than expected, as the cost of services climbed. Still, investors expect the Fed could start cutting rates in September. “The market isn’t afraid of the Fed at this point,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

Lower rates are expected to boost economic growth, which could boost fuel consumption. “Cooling U.S. inflation numbers may support the case for the Fed to kick-start its policy easing process earlier rather than later,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG. “It also adds to the series of downside surprises in U.S. economic data, which points to a clear weakening of the U.S. economy,” he added.

Oil prices have drawn some support from U.S. gasoline demand, which government data showed on Wednesday was at 9.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week ended July 5, the highest since 2019 for the week that includes the Independence Day holiday. Jet fuel demand on a four-week average basis was at its strongest since January 2020. The strong fuel demand encouraged U.S. refiners to ramp up activity and draw from crude oil stockpiles. U.S. Gulf Coast refiners’ net input of crude rose last week to more than 9.4 million bpd for the first time since January 2019, government data showed. Signs of weaker demand from China, the world’s biggest oil importer, could counter the outlook from the United States and weigh on prices. “The recent downside correction is evidently over, although the speed of further ascent might be hindered by falling Chinese crude oil imports, which plummeted 11% in June from the previous year,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.

U.S. active oil rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by one to 478 this week, the lowest since December 2021, energy services firm Baker Hughes (BKR.O), opens new tab reported on Friday. 

Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to July 9, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE  

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED TODAY/TONIGHT, Prices are down 1/2 cent today and will drop another 1/2 Saturday ~ Be Safe Today

NYEX Crude      $  82.62 UP $.5200

NYMEX ULSD     $2.5182 DN $.0002

NYMEX Gas       $2.5178 UP $.0144

NEWS 07/11/2024

Today’s monthly report from the IEA was bearish for crude as the report said global crude consumption in Q2 rose by +710,000 bpd, the smallest increase since late 2022 as Chinese crude demand slipped into a contraction.

A report late Wednesday from JPMorgan Chase shows stronger global oil demand that is bullish for crude prices as the report said global oil demand averaged 103.6 million bpd in the month-to-date through July 6, rising by +1.7 million bpd from a year ago.  The report cites a rebound in US and Chinese air travel, as well as weather-related increases in fuel oil and gasoil use in the Middle East.

Reduced crude exports from Russia are limiting global oil supplies and are supporting oil prices.  According to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, Russia’s crude exports in the week to July 7 fell by -990,000 bpd to 2.67 million bpd, the lowest in over five months.

Weakness in crude demand in China, the world’s second-largest crude consumer, is bearish for oil prices.  Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that in the week ending June 28, only 86 global oil tankers indicated China as their next destination in the coming three months, five fewer than the prior week and the lowest weekly tally since August of 2022.

Crude oil prices have underlying support from the Hamas-Israel conflict.  Israel’s military continues to conduct operations in Gaza, and there is also concern that the war might spread to Hezbollah in Lebanon or even to a direct conflict with Iran.  Meanwhile, ongoing attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have forced shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting global crude oil supplies.

Higher than expected Russian crude output is bearish for oil prices.  Russian crude production averaged 9.078 million bpd in June, above its agreed target of 9.049 million bpd.  

An increase in crude oil in floating storage is bearish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +11% w/w to 86.58 million bbl as of July 5.

OPEC+ rolled out a plan to restore some crude production in Q4, which sparked worries about a glut in global oil supplies.  OPEC+, on June 2, extended the 2 million bpd of voluntary crude production cuts into Q3 but said they would gradually phase out the cuts over the following 12 months, beginning in October.  OPEC pledged to extend its crude production cap at about 39 million bpd to the end of 2025.  Also, the UAE was given a 300,000 bpd boost to its production target for 2025.

A decrease in OPEC crude output is positive for oil prices.  OPEC’s June crude production fell -80,000 bpd to 26.98 million bpd.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 5 were -4.4% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -1.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -8.2% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending July 5 rose +0.8% w/w and matched a record high of 13.3 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending July 5 were unchanged at a 2-1/2 year low of 479 rigs.  The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE  

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 31-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“Coming Together is the Beginning; Keeping Together is Progress; Working Together is Success”  ~ Henry Ford

Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED TODAY/TONIGHT”  Today’s prices are down 5.5 cents but will drop another 1/2 cents Friday~ Be Safe

NYEX Crude      $  82.10 UP $.6900

NYMEX ULSD     $2.5184 DN $.0052

NYMEX Gas       $2.5034 DN $.0240

NEWS 07/10/2024

HOUSTON, July 10 (Reuters) – Oil prices settled higher on Wednesday after a jump in U.S. refining activity last week drove a larger-than-expected decline in gasoline and crude inventories, but gains were capped due to minimal supply disruptions from Hurricane Beryl.

Brent futures settled up 42 cents, or 0.5% at $85.08 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled up 69 cents, or 0.85%, at $82.10 a barrel.

WTI rose by as much as $1 during the session, after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels to 445.1 million barrels in the week ended July 5, far exceeding analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.3 million-barrel draw.

Gasoline stocks fell by 2 million barrels to 229.7 million barrels, much bigger than the 600,000-barrel draw analysts expected during U.S. Fourth of July holiday week.

“More than anything the EIA data seems to be the driving force right now for higher prices,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group.

Both crude futures contracts had ended the previous three sessions lower on signs that the Texas energy industry came off relatively unscathed from Hurricane Beryl.

Oil and gas companies restarted some operations on Tuesday. On Wednesday morning, the Port of Houston said it had returned to normal start times for operations at its eight public terminals.

Refineries and offshore production facilities saw limited storm damage and have largely returned to normal operations, easing concerns of a supply disruption.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he was not yet ready to declare inflation beaten, but felt the U.S. remained on a path to stable prices and continued low unemployment.

Investors are betting on interest rate cuts for September, which could boost economic growth and oil demand.

Geopolitical risk did little to move prices, analysts said, with investors somewhat fatigued over discussions about a ceasefire in Gaza and the war in Ukraine, said Tim Snyder, economist at Matador Economics.

“We see news stories out there that are having little impact on the market, which means the market is discounting those,” he added.

In the Middle East, Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said that if Hamas reached a Gaza ceasefire deal with Israel, Hezbollah would stop its operations with no need for separate talks. The group began firing at Israeli targets on the border in support of Palestinians after its ally Hamas launched the Oct. 7 attack on Israel that precipitated the war in Gaza.

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