Meanwhile, OPEC said Monday that Haithan Al-Ghasis of Kuwait will become its Secretary General on Aug. 1 to serve a three-year term, taking over for Nigeria’s Mohammad Barkindo, who has been OPEC’s secretary general since 2016. Reaction to the early talk on production out of OPEC is “rather muted and oil prices are rising after a big selloff going into the New Year’s Day holiday, where we saw prices fall on very light volume,” Flynn said. The market appeared to rise “on a risk-on mode and on reports of threats to global supply.” There are reports that Libya expects its oil production to fall by another 200,000 barrels a day as crews work on a damaged pipeline — two weeks after news reports said militias shut down the OPEC member’s biggest field, prompting output to drop by 350,000 barrels per day, said Flynn. “This becomes a bigger issue because OPEC is predicting [a supply] deficit in the next two quarters,” he said. “This should be very supportive for prices, especially if [Libyan output] can’t get this back online soon.”

West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery rose 87 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $76.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. March Brent crude, the global benchmark, added $1.20, or 1.5%, at $78.98 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. WTI, the U.S. benchmark, rose 55% in 2021, the strongest percentage gain based on front-month contracts since 2009. Brent advanced 50.2% — its strongest percentage rise since 2016.

Over the past week, the average number of new U.S. COVID-19 cases has topped 400,000 for the first time, up more than 200% over the last 14 days, according to a New York Times tracker. Deaths have fallen by 3% over the same period. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease doctor, said Sunday that the focus should be on the number of hospitalizations, which could overwhelm health systems, rather than new infections. Many infections are mild or asymptomatic and scientists believe the omicron variant, while more infectious, may be less virulent than other variants. But other variants are also circulating. Moreover, the risk of severe disease from any circulating variant, including omicron is much, much higher for the unvaccinated, Fauci warned last week. “Though omicron cases continue to climb in key geographies, the absence of widespread lock down restrictions will likely keep near term [oil] demand concerns in check,” analysts at RBC Capital Markets, led by Helima Croft, wrote in a Monday note.

“Two key geopolitical stories that we will continue to watch are the ongoing Russia-Ukraine standoff as well as the Iranian nuclear negotiations,” they said.

Upbeat economic reports also provided support for energy bulls, as the U.S Labor Department data on Thursday showed that 198,000 applied for unemployment benefits during the week ended Dec. 25, leaving new jobless claims around a 52-year low amid the spread of omicron. Separately, the Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, rose to 63.1 in December up from 61.8 last month, with the report viewed as an early gauge of the Institute for Supply Management’s more closely followed report on manufacturing activity next Tuesday.

West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery traded 43 cents, or 0.6%, higher to settle at $76.99 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after the U.S. benchmark rose 0.8% on Wednesday. The contract has posted seven straight gains, marking the longest such advance since the eight-session period ended Feb. 10, according to Dow Jones Market Data. February Brent crude added 9 cents, or 0.1%, to finish at $79.32 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, after rising 0.4% to the highest price since Nov. 25 for the global benchmark. Brent has climbed for four straight sessions. Both contracts had pared early, modest losses to pivot higher in the middle of the session.

U.S. Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday showed crude oil inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels in the week to Dec. 24. Gasoline and distillate inventories also declined, indicating demand remained strong despite record U.S. COVID-19 cases. Global oil prices have rebounded by between 50% and 60% in 2021 as fuel demand recovered to near pre-pandemic levels and output management by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) for most of the year erased a supply glut. OPEC+ will meet on Jan. 4 to decide whether to continue increasing output in February and the early speculation is that the organization will stand pat on its plan to raise overall monthly production by 400,000 per day starting in January.

The People’s Bank of China pledged greater support for the real economy, with the central bank saying that it would aim for targeted policy measures to stimulate the world’s second-largest economy. Energy experts also pointed to reported comments from Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, in which the energy official of one of the biggest oil producing nations said the world faces a 30 MBD shortfall by the end of the decade, Bloomberg reported. Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the PRICE Futures Group, also said buying was supported by reports suggesting that Prime Minister Boris Johnson was disinclined, at the moment, to impose mobility restrictions in the U.K. The British leader, however, still appeared to be examining the impact of the spread of omicron domestically.

Crude futures concluded an abbreviated week of trade last week with a 4% weekly rise during the Christmas stretch, with U.S. markets closed on Friday in observance of the holiday. Next week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, forming a group known as OPEC+, is set to gather Jan. 4. “The group is expected to stick with its decision to raise oil output by a further 400k barrels a day, although some have argued they will be more cautious because of the virus situation,” wrote Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at ThinkMarkets, in a note dated Friday. “If they do stick with status quo, I think this will put some pressure on oil prices,” the ThinkMarkets analyst wrote.

West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery was trading $1.78, or 2.4%, higher, to settle at $75.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after putting in a 4.3% weekly gain on Thursday, which pushed the U.S. benchmark contract to the highest finish since Nov. 24. Meanwhile, February Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose $2.46, or 3.2%, to close at $78.60 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, following a 3.6% weekly finish on Friday, with the ICE Europe market open on Christmas Eve.

Since the weekend, airlines have canceled thousands of flights globally, citing staffing problems tied to COVID, as travel woes extended beyond Christmas, with no clear indication when normal schedules would resume.

West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery rose $1.64, or 2.3%, to close at $72.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest close for a most actively traded contract since Nov. 24. February Brent crude, the global benchmark, gained $1.31, or 1.8%, to settle at $75.29 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, its highest close since Dec. 8.

Oil initially pared gains, then pushed to a new session high after the Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.7 million barrels last week. Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts, on average, had looked for a decline of 3.9 million barrels, while sources said the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday had reported a fall of 3.67 million barrels. Gasoline inventories, however, jumped 5.5 million barrels, versus analyst expectations for a rise of 600,000 barrels and API data showing a 3.7 million barrel increase. The EIA said distillate stocks rose by 400,000 barrels. Analysts had looked for a decline of 1.6 million barrels, while API data was said to show a fall of 849,000 barrels.

“A bullish draw to crude inventories has been somewhat offset by a large build to gasoline stocks as implied demand dipped significantly after last week’s pop higher. Distillates showed a minor build despite implied demand also showing a decent drop,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst, Americas, at Kpler, in emailed comments. The draw on crude inventories was driven by a decline on the U.S. Gulf Coast amid stronger refinery runs, while imports were once again subdued due to end-of-year ad valorem tax considerations, Smith said, while continued strength in exports also pulled down Gulf Coast stocks.

A push above the 100-day moving average for WTI, which now stands at $73.97, would likely signal a “big entry point” for speculative traders, said Robert Yawger, executive director for energy futures at Mizuho Securities, in a note, observing that the average hasn’t been topped since the Nov. 26 slide.

With a relative strength index, a gauge used to measure technically overbought and oversold conditions, near 48.23, the market appears to have “room to roam, and could probably take out the 100-day before running into overbought RSI territory,” which is seen when the gauge moves above 70.