West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery edged up by a nickel, or nearly 0.1%, to settle at $88.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the highest settlement value for a front-month contract since Oct. 7, 2014, according to Dow Jones Market Data. April Brent crude, the global benchmark, declined by 10 cents, or 0.1%, to end at $89.16 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

OPEC+ has so far stuck to a timetable that has seen it add 400,000 barrels a day to output in monthly increments, resisting calls by the U.S. and oil-consuming countries for larger increases. Members, meanwhile, have struggled to meet the increased quotas. “OPEC is still unable to implement the agreed expansion of production,” said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank, in a note. Citing data from a Reuters survey, he noted that output from the 10 OPEC members subject to production quotas rose by 230,000 barrels a day in January, falling short of the 250,000 barrels-a-day rise that had been agreed.

At a meeting on Tuesday, the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee said it expects the overall oil-supply surplus in 2022 to reach 1.3 million barrels per day — less than the previous forecast of 1.4 million barrels per day, according to Reuters, which viewed a report prepared by the committee. Meanwhile, oil traders continued to monitor developments tied to Ukraine, which can contribute global oil-supply risks.

The U.S. and Russia exchanged sharp accusations against each other over Ukraine at a meeting of the U.N. Security Council on Monday. On Tuesday, Russian officials denied reports that Mosco had sent Washington a written response to a U.S. proposal aimed at de-escalating the crisis over Ukraine. Russia has massed around 100,000 troops near its border with Ukraine and taken other actions that have sparked fears an invasion of the neighboring country may be imminent. The U.S. and its allies have threatened harsh sanctions against Moscow in the event of an attack. Russia has insisted that NATO rule out membership for Ukraine and has made other security demands that the U.S. and its allies have deemed nonstarters.

In other Nymex energy trading Tuesday, March gasoline added 0.8% to $2.575 a gallon, while March heating oil added 0.9% to $2.741 a gallon.

Still the longer-term outlook for oil remains favorable, he told MarketWatch. U.S. output hasn’t yet responded to higher prices, compliance among OPEC+ members to individual production quotas remains above 100%, and the demand outlook continues to improve as “omicron fears fade and growth outlooks rebound.”

WTI crude for March deliveryfell 41 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $85.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, trimming the U.S. benchmark’s weekly advance to 2.2%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. March Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost 49 cents, or nearly 0.6%, at $87.89 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, for a 2.1%weekly gain. Both WTI and Brent closed Wednesday at their highest since October 2014 and marked a fifth consecutive weekly gain.

“Crude prices may not have a one-way ticket to $100 oil, but the supply-side fundamentals certainly support that could happen by the summer,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, in a market update. “The next few trading sessions could be difficult for energy traders as oil prices may move more so on investor positioning ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC policy decision and over a handful of brewing geopolitical risks, that include Russia-Ukraine tensions, Iran nuclear talks, and developments with global handling over North Korea,” Moya said.

Friday’s decline followed minor losses Thursday, the day the Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude inventories, excluding the SPR, unexpectly climbed by 500,000 barrels for the week ended Jan. 14. The EIA also reported a weekly inventory increase of 5.9 million barrels for gasoline, while distillate stockpiles fell by 1.4 million barrels.

Crude prices had “recently been reacting only to news that supported higher prices, such as temporary supply outages that have meanwhile been resolved. The question now is whether the correction will continue or whether the lower price level will be viewed by market participants as a buying opportunity,” said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank, in a note. “Both scenarios are possible as things currently stand.” 7-year high WTI oil futures traded at their highest since October 2014 this week. Crude Oil CAnalysts said a continued slide in equities was taking a toll on sentiment for other assets viewed as risky.

A sharp rise in Treasury yields tied to expectations for a series of rate increases by the Fed that is expected to be more aggressive than previously expected has been blamed for a stock-market selloff that’s sent the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite into correction territory, while also dragging down other major indexes, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500. Growing risks to global supplies provided support for oil prices overall for the week, spurring talk of an eventual rise to $100 a barrel. WTI and Brent haven’t traded at a level that high since 2014. The market has been closely following geopolitical developments this month, including unrest in Kazakhstan, an attack on oil infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, a temporary disruption to crude flows through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline and the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. On Friday, tensions in the Middle East worsened as a Saudi-led coalition airstrike on Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen hit a prison, killing dozens of people, according to The Wall Street Journal. Oil prices are likely to reach $100, but “without a serious geopolitical shock,” that may not happen until next year, Matthew Parry, head of long-term analysis at Energy Aspects, recently told MarketWatch. “The main cause of this predicted upside will be total liquid [petroleum] demand consistently outpacing relatively anemic supply growth — a consequence of years of insufficient [capital expenditures] — as persistent deficit coincides with relatively low levels of global stocks,” he said.

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Oil futures surged following initial reports of the explosion, giving back some of the gains after operations were resumed. Analysts said the reaction to the outage and its subsequent resolution underscores how sensitive the market is to supply concerns. “The pattern of recent weeks is being repeated, in other words: news about supply outages pushes prices up significantly, yet prices do not drop back to their previous level once the problems have been resolved,” said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank, in a note.

West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery rose $1.53, or 1.8%, to settle at $86.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after trading as high as $87.92. The most active March WTI contract, which becomes the front month after Thursday’s settlement, rose 97 cents, or 1.1%, at $85.80 a barrel. March Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 93 cents, or 1.1%, at $88.44 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, after hitting a high of $89.17. Both WTI and Brent logged their highest settlements since October 2014, based on the front-month contracts.

Geopolitical instability, following a rocket attack earlier this week in the United Arab Emirates, attributed to the Yemeni Houthi movement, as well as “growing alert over a possible Russian attack in Ukraine,” have also contributed to oil’s rise, said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActiveTrades, in a daily note. Has been tight for a while, as global demand continues to bounce back and OPEC+ member countries so far failing to reach a previously agreed increase in production,” Evangelista said. So “the latest developments are an unwelcome addition, exacerbating pressure on already tight markets and creating scope for further oil price increases.”

Meanwhile, the Paris-based International Energy Agency on Wednesday forecast global oil demand to return to pre-pandemic levels this year. The IEA hiked its oil-demand growth forecast for 2022 by 200,000 barrels a day, to 3.3 million barrels a day. It also raised its demand growth forecast for 2021 by 200,000 barrels a day to 5.5 million barrels a day. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in its monthly report on Tuesday, left its forecast for 2022 growth in oil demand unchanged at 4.2 million barrels a day, estimating total global consumption at 100.8 million barrels a day.

Weekly U.S. petroleum supply data from the Energy Information Administration will be delayed to Thursday, a day later than usual because of Monday’s Martin Luther King, Jr., holiday. On average, analysts expect a decline of 700,000 barrels in domestic crude inventories for the week ended Jan. 14, according to a poll conducted by S&P Global Platts. They also forecast an increase of 2.4 million barrels for gasoline stockpiles, but distillate supplies are seen down by 1.1 million barrels.