Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT” ahead of Saturday’s price JUMP UP of 2.5 Cents ~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 71.95 UP $1.0400
NYMEX ULSD $2.1720 UP $0.0245
NYMEX Gas $2.0600 UP $0.0493
NEWS
Oct WTI crude oil Thursday closed up +1.04 (+1.47%), and Oct RBOB gasoline closed up +4.93 (+2.45%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices rallied to 2-week highs on Thursday and settled moderately higher. Crude rose Thursday after the Fed’s aggressive 50 bp interest rate cut on Wednesday sparked risk-on sentiment in asset markets. Crude oil prices are also moving higher in the hope that the Fed’s aggressive rate cut will spur economic growth that boosts energy demand. In addition, Thursday’s rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high shows optimism in the economic outlook that is bullish for energy demand.
Concerns that conflict in the Middle East may widen and disrupt the region’s crude supplies is bullish for crude. Israeli Defense Minister Gallant announced a “new phase” in the war with regional Islamist groups as Israel moved troops toward the Lebanon border, raising fears about a wider conflict that could involve Iran, a major oil producer.
Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT” ahead of Friday’s price JUMP UP of 1 Cents ~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 70.91 DN $.2800
NYMEX ULSD $2.1475 UP $.0108
NYMEX Gas $2.0107 UP $.0088
NEWS
Oct WTI crude oil Wednesday closed down -0.28 (-0.39%), and Oct RBOB gasoline closed up +0.88 (+0.44%). Crude oil and gasoline prices Wednesday settled, with gasoline posting a 2-week high. Crude was under pressure Wednesday on concerns about Chinese energy demand after two Chinese refiners run by Sinochem Group declared bankruptcy due to lackluster demand and poor refining margins. Crude has support on concerns of escalation of hostilities in the Middle East after Lebanon accused Israel of orchestrating an attack that killed several people and wounded nearly 3,000 when their pagers exploded. Crude prices also found support on Wednesday’s bullish weekly EIA report. Wednesday’s fall in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 14-month low limited losses in crude.
Wednesday’s action by the FOMC to cut interest rates by 50 bp was also positive for crude prices as the easier monetary policy may spark economic growth that supports energy demand.Wednesday’s US economic reports showed strength that supports energy demand and prices. Aug housing starts rose +9.6% m/m to a 4-month high of 1.356 million, stronger than expectations of 1.318 million. Also, Aug building permits, a proxy for future construction, rose +4.9% m/m to a 5-month high of 1.475 million, stronger than expectations of 1.410 million.
Concerns that the Israel-Hamas war could escalate into Lebanon and lead to disruption of Middle Eastern crude supplies are bullish for crude prices higher. On Tuesday, Lebanon accused Israel of installing malware or explosives in pagers used by the Lebanese people that caused the devices to explode, which left nearly 1,500 Hezbollah militants injured. Pagers are used by Hezbollah fighters for most of their communications on the belief they can avoid interceptions by Israeli intelligence. Reduced Libyan oil production and exports support oil prices as UN-led talks failed to break an impasse in Libya over control of the country’s central bank, leading to reduced crude exports. Libya’s crude exports fell to 314,000 bpd last week from 468,00 bpd at the beginning of this month. Earlier this month, Libya’s eastern government declared force majeure on all oil fields, terminals, and crude export facilities as it called for a halt to all crude production and exports due to political conflict over who controls the country’s central bank and oil revenues.
Signs of weakness in European fuel demand are bearish for crude prices after Italian refiner Eni SpA and Spain’s Repsol SA, which together account for about 13% of Europe’s oil refining capacity, said they were reducing processing at their plants because of weak margins, a sign of lackluster fuel demand in Europe.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -1.5% w/w to 65.53 million bbl in the week ended September 13.
Crude prices found support after OPEC+ on September 5 agreed to pause its scheduled crude production hike of 180,000 bpd in October and November due to recent weakness in crude prices and signs of fragile global energy demand.
An increase in Russian crude exports is negative for crude. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports rose by +110,000 bpd to 3.25 million bpd in the week to September 15. Meanwhile, a decline in Russian crude production is positive for oil prices after Russia’s Energy Ministry reported last Tuesday that Russia’s Aug crude production was 9.059 million bpd, down -30,000 bpd from July but +81,000 bpd above the output target it agreed to with OPEC+.
Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was bullish for crude. EIA crude inventories fell -1.63 million bbl to an 11-month low, a larger draw than expectations of -100,000 bbl. EIA gasoline supplies rose +69,000 bbl, a smaller build than expectations of +1.0 million bbl. In addition, EIA distillate stockpiles rose +125,000 bbl, a smaller build than expectations of +1.0 million bbl. Finally, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, fell -1.98 million bbl to a 10-1/2 month low.
Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of September 13 were -4.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -0.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -8.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending September 13 fell -0.8% w/w to 13.2 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.4 million bpd from the week of August 16.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending September 13 rose by +5 rigs to 488 rigs, modestly above the 2-1/2 year low of 477 rigs posted in the week ending July 19. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT” ahead of Wednesday’s price JUMP UP of 1.5 Cents ~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 70.09 UP $1.4400
NYMEX ULSD $2.0968 UP $0.0125
NYMEX Gas $1.9682 UP $0.0380
NEWS
Oct WTI crude oil Monday closed up +1.44 (+2.10%), and Oct RBOB gasoline closed up +3.80 (+1.97%). Crude oil and gasoline prices Monday rallied sharply to 1-week highs. Monday’s slide in the dollar index to a 1-week low was bullish for most commodity prices. Also, the disruption of crude exports from Libya has tightened global supplies and supported oil prices. A negative for crude is concern about Chinese fuel demand after Monday’s weaker-than-expected Chinese economic reports.
Reduced Libyan oil production and exports are supporting oil prices as UN-led talks failed to break an impasse in Libya over control of the country’s central bank, which has led to reduced crude exports. Libya’s crude exports fell to 314,000 bpd last week from 468,00 bpd at the beginning of this month. Earlier this month, Libya’s eastern government declared force majeure on all oil fields, terminals, and crude export facilities as it called for a halt to all crude production and exports due to political conflict over who controls the country’s central bank and oil revenues.
Chinese economic news Monday was weaker than expected, which sparked concerns about fuel demand in China, the world’s second-largest crude-consuming country. China Aug industrial production rose +4.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +4.7% y/y. Also, Aug retail sales rose +2.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.5% y/y. In addition, Aug new home prices fell -0.73% m/m, the largest decline in 9-3/4 years.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -1.5% w/w to 65.53 million bbl in the week ended September 13. Crude prices found support after OPEC+ on September 5 agreed to pause its scheduled crude production hike of 180,000 bpd in October and November due to recent weakness in crude prices and signs of fragile global energy demand.
An increase in Russian crude exports is negative for crude. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports rose by +40,000 bpd to 3.14 million bpd in the week to September 8. Meanwhile, a decline in Russian crude production is positive for oil prices after Russia’s Energy Ministry reported Tuesday that Russia’s Aug crude production was 9.059 million bpd, down -30,000 bpd from July but +81,000 bpd above the output target it agreed to with OPEC+.
Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of September 6 were -4.3% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -0.6% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -8.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending September 6 was unchanged w/w at 13.3 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.4 million bpd from the week of August 16.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending September 13 rose by +5 rigs to 488 rigs, modestly above the 2-1/2 year low of 477 rigs posted in the week ending July 19. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
Sep 14th Fueling Strategy: Prices are UP 3 cent today, Please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY TODAY/TONIGHT” (cap all fuel at 50 gallons max or better yet, Don’t fuel today) Sunday prices will DROP of 3 Cents ~ Be Safe Today
Love’s teams are monitoring the latest developments as Hurricane Francine makes landfall along Louisiana. We have taken precautions and have increased fuel and food deliveries to stay stocked. Our stores are prepared to safely serve customers as long as possible.
For the most up to date information regarding business interruptions, please refer to Loves.com/weather and the Love’s Connect app.
With safety our number one priority, we are proactively preparing our travel centers and team members for Hurricane Francine. We’ve initiated Pilot’s emergency response team and have daily calls to track the storm and guide our operations.
Current forecasts indicate Hurricane Francine will make landfall around Morgan City, Louisiana, later this evening as a Category 1 hurricane.
See below for an update on our operations and a store watch list.
Store Operations:
We have temporarily closed three locations in the storm’s projected path. All other stores in the region are currently open and will remain open as long as it is safe for our team members to serve your drivers, emergency personnel and the community.
Temporarily closed: Pilot #300 – Hammond, LA Pilot #79 – Denham Springs, LA Pilot #1439 – Port Allen, LA
Supply Conditions: Pilot’s logistics team has us well-positioned to help prevent any service interruptions. We have ample supply in the impacted areas to keep your drivers and fleet fueled.
Sep 12th Fueling Strategy: Prices are down 8 cents today, Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT” ahead of Friday’s price MOVE UP of 3 Cents ~ Be Safe Today
NYEX Crude $ 67.31 UP $1.5600
NYMEX ULSD $2.0917 UP $0.0337
NYMEX Gas $1.8972 UP $0.0272
NEWS
The Oct WTI trading session settled at 67.31 (+1.56), had a high of 67.97, a low of 65.63. Cash price is at 65.79 (-2.91), while open interest came in at 233,215. Higher on the day by 2.37% CLV traded below its 200 day (77.5), its 50 day (76.48), its 20 day (72.72) and its 7 day (68.54) moving averages.
The COT report as of 9/3 showed commercials with a net short position of -239,369 compared to non-commercials who are net long 204,784. Crude oil recovered some of the losses from yesterday, with today’s rally driven by several factors in my view.
These include Tropical Storm Francine being upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane, which has led to the shutdown of Exxon, Chevron, and Shell refinery facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, a smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. inventory levels, and the transition from October to November contracts.
The EIA reported that domestic crude oil inventories rose by 833,000 barrels for the week ending September 6, reversing the previous week’s decrease of 6.873 million barrels, the market forecast was expecting ~1 million barrels. Although it wasn’t the draw bulls would have liked to have seen, the build up being less than the forecast could be viewed as slightly bullish in my opinion.
On top of that, yesterday the API reported a larger-than-expected drop in commercial inventories, which fell by 2.79 million barrels last week. Reuters reported that Libya’s crude oil exports sank by 81% this week compared to the previous week, amid the ongoing standoff between the two government factions.
Sep 11th Fueling Strategy: Prices are UP 2.5 cent today, Please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY TODAY/TONIGHT” (cap all fuel at 50 gallons max or better yet, Don’t fuel today) Thursday prices will DROP of 8 Cents ~ Be Safe Today
NYEX Crude $ 65.75 DN $2.9600
NYMEX ULSD $2.0580 DN $0.0814
NYMEX Gas $1.8700 DN $0.0504
NEWS
Oct WTI crude oil Tuesday closed down -2.96 (-4.31%), and Oct RBOB gasoline closed down -5.04 (-2.62%). Crude oil and gasoline prices Tuesday sold off sharply, with crude falling to a 16-month nearest-futures low and gasoline dropping to a 3-1/2 year low. A stronger dollar on Tuesday was bearish for energy prices. Crude oil prices also fell on concern about global energy demand after news that Chinese imports rose less than expected.
Crude prices also came under pressure Tuesday after Morgan Stanley cut its Brent crude price forecast for the second time in two weeks. Morgan Stanley projects Brent crude will average $75 a barrel in the fourth quarter, down from a previous projection of $80 a barrel.
Chinese trade news Tuesday was mixed for energy demand and crude prices. On the negative side, China Aug imports rose +0.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.5% y/y. Conversely, China’s Aug exports rose +8.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +6.6% y/y and the largest increase in 17 months.
Crude oil prices have some support as Tropical Storm Francine is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico as soon as tonight, which could disrupt US crude production and refining on the Gulf Coast, where 20% of US crude production is produced and 48% of US petroleum refining capacity is located.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -2.14% w/w to 60.25 million bbl in the week ended September 6.
Crude prices found support last Thursday after OPEC+ agreed to pause its scheduled crude production hike of 180,000 bpd in October and November due to recent weakness in crude prices and signs of fragile global energy demand.
Crude oil prices have had some negative carryover since last Tuesday when Libyan central bank governor Sadiq Al-Kibir said there are “strong” indications that political factions are nearing an agreement to overcome political differences and resume the country’s crude oil production. Last week, Libya’s eastern government declared force majeure on all oil fields, terminals, and crude export facilities as it called for a halt to all crude production and exports due to political conflict over who controls the country’s central bank and oil revenues. The halt to Libya’s crude exports threatened to remove more than 1 million bpd of crude from the global market.
A supportive factor for crude is a decline in Russian crude exports. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports fell by -25,000 bpd to 3.1 million bpd in the week to September 1. Meanwhile, increased Russian crude production is negative for oil prices after Russia’s Energy Ministry reported on August 23 that Russia’s July crude production was 9.045 million bpd, about 67,000 bpd above the output target it agreed to with OPEC+.
The consensus is for Wednesday’s weekly EIA crude inventories to climb +1.05 million bbl and gasoline supplies to remain unchanged. Last Thursday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of August 30 were -4.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -9.5% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending August 30 was unchanged w/w at 13.3 million bpd, falling back from the record high of 13.4 million bpd from the week of August 16.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending September 6 were unchanged at 483 rigs, modestly above the 2-1/2 year low of 477 rigs posted in the week ending July 19. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
