Sep 27th –Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT” IF your running in the Southeast due to supplies could be short.
If you’re out of Helena’s path your Fueling Strategy is to “FILL AS NEEDED TODAY/TONIGHT” Prices ARE down 2 cents today BUT will drop another 2.5 cents after midnight tonight (Saturday AM)!! ~ Be Safe Today!
Sep 26th –Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT” IF your running in the Southeast due to supplies could be short. If you’re out of Helena’s path your fueling strategy is to “PARTIAL FILL ONLY TODAY/TONIGHT” Prices will DROP 2 cents after midnight tonight (Friday AM)!! ~ Be Safe Today!
Love’s teams are monitoring the latest developments as Tropical Storm Helene makes landfall along Florida. We have taken precautions and have increased fuel and food deliveries to stay stocked. Our stores are prepared to safely serve customers as long as possible.
For the most up to date information regarding business interruptions, please refer to Loves.com/weather and the Love’s Connect app.
With safety our number one priority, we are proactively preparing our travel centers and team members for Hurricane Francine. We’ve initiated Pilot’s emergency response team and have daily calls to track the storm and guide our operations.
See below for an update on our operations and a store watch list.
Store Operations:
We have temporarily closed three locations in the storm’s projected path. All other stores in the region are currently open and will remain open as long as it is safe for our team members to serve your drivers, emergency personnel and the community.
Supply Conditions: Pilot’s logistics team has us well-positioned to help prevent any service interruptions. We have ample supply in the impacted areas to keep your drivers and fleet fueled.
Sep 25th –Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT” Prices will JUMP up 3.5 cents after midnight tonight (Thursday)!! ~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 71.56 UP $1.1900
NYMEX ULSD $2.1805 UP $0.0354
NYMEX Gas $2.0297 UP $0.0395
NEWS
The Nov WTI trading session settled at 71.56, had a high of 72.40, a low of 70.44. Cash price is at 70.37(-0.65), while open interest came in at 355,290. CLX settled above its 7 day (70.44) ((broke above the 7 and 20 day)), its 20 day (69.98), but below its 50 day (72.94), and its 200 day (74.93) moving-averages. The COT report (Futures and Options Summary) as of 9/20 showed commercials with a net short position of -199,037 (a decrease in short positions by 7,981 compared to last week) to non-commercials who are net long 175,128 (a increase in long positions by 247 compared to last week).
The movement today I believe was based on the developing Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and the economic stimulus package released by China’s central bank. Reuters reported that oil platforms in the Gulf for Chevron and Exxon have already begun evacuating staff in the region. Accuweather is predicting the storm to make landfall later in the week as a Category 3 Hurricane with potential to reach Category 4 status. China’s central bank announced their largest stimulus package since 2020, a move expected to put some pulse in their economy after a sluggish year. Goldman Sachs commodity analysts have increased their crude oil forecast for the fourth quarter, projecting that Brent prices will reach $77 by year-end. They attribute this outlook to declining global production coupled with a rise in global demand. Concerns over China’s crude demand and the economic state in the U.S. and Europe continue to fuel this bearish positioning in the market as we enter the winter months, in my view. As of today I still see support around $68 and resistance around $72. The API and EIA numbers and this storm in the Gulf of Mexico could see us break that $72 hurdle this week.
Sep 24th –Fueling Strategy: Please “BUY ONLY ENOUGH FUEL TO GET THROUGH TODAY/TONIGHT” Prices will DROP another 2 cents after midnight tonight (Wednesday)!! ~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 70.37 DN $.6300
NYMEX ULSD $2.1451 DN $.0164
NYMEX Gas $1.9902 DN $.0462
NEWS
Nov WTI crude oil today is down -0.54 (-0.76%), and Nov RBOB gasoline is down -3.18 (-1.58%). Crude oil and gasoline prices today gave up early gains and are moderately lower. The strength of the dollar today is negative for energy prices. Also, signs of weakness in US and European manufacturing activity are bearish for fuel demand and oil prices. Crude initially climbed to a 2-1/2 week high today after China boosted stimulus and on concerns that conflict in the Middle East will widen and threaten the region’s oil supplies.
Today’s global economic news was weaker than expected and bearish for energy demand and crude prices. The US Sep S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.9 to 47.0, weaker than expectations of 48.6 and the steepest pace of contraction in 15 months. Also, the Eurozone Sep S&P manufacturing PMI fell -1.0 to 44.8, weaker than expectations of 45.7 and the steepest pace of contraction in 9 months. In addition, the Eurozone Sep S&P composite PMI fell -2.1 to 48.9, weaker than expectations of 50.5 and the steepest pace of contraction in 8 months.
Sunday’s action by China to boost stimulus may spur economic growth that supports energy demand and is bullish for crude prices after the PBOC cut the 14-day reverse repo rate by -10 bp to 1.85% from 1.95%.
Concerns that conflict in the Middle East may widen and disrupt the region’s crude supplies are bullish for crude. Iranian-backed Hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets, missiles, and drones toward northern Israel on Sunday, and Israeli counterattacks today killed more than 180 people, raising fears about a broader conflict that could involve Iran, a major oil producer.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for prices. Vortexa reported today that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -12% w/w to 56.31 million bbl in the week ended September 20, the lowest amount in 4-1/2 years.
Crude exports from Libya have recently risen, which boosts global supplies and is negative for prices. Tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed Libya’s crude shipments averaged 719,000 bpd between September 13-19, more than double the 314,000 bpd in the previous seven days. Earlier this month, Libya’s eastern government declared force majeure on all oil fields, terminals, and crude export facilities as it called for a halt to all crude production and exports due to political conflict over who controls the country’s central bank and oil revenues.
Crude prices found support after OPEC+ on September 5 agreed to pause its scheduled crude production hike of 180,000 bpd in October and November due to recent weakness in crude prices and signs of fragile global energy demand.
An increase in Russian crude exports is negative for crude. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports rose by +110,000 bpd to 3.25 million bpd in the week to September 15. Meanwhile, a decline in Russian crude production is positive for oil prices after Russia’s Energy Ministry reported last Tuesday that Russia’s Aug crude production was 9.059 million bpd, down -30,000 bpd from July but +81,000 bpd above the output target it agreed to with OPEC+.
Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of September 13 were -4.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -0.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -8.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending September 13 fell -0.8% w/w to 13.2 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.4 million bpd from the week of August 16.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending September 20 were unchanged at 488 rigs, modestly above the 2-1/2 year low of 477 rigs posted in the week ending July 19. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT” ahead of Saturday’s price JUMP UP of 2.5 Cents ~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 71.95 UP $1.0400
NYMEX ULSD $2.1720 UP $0.0245
NYMEX Gas $2.0600 UP $0.0493
NEWS
Oct WTI crude oil Thursday closed up +1.04 (+1.47%), and Oct RBOB gasoline closed up +4.93 (+2.45%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices rallied to 2-week highs on Thursday and settled moderately higher. Crude rose Thursday after the Fed’s aggressive 50 bp interest rate cut on Wednesday sparked risk-on sentiment in asset markets. Crude oil prices are also moving higher in the hope that the Fed’s aggressive rate cut will spur economic growth that boosts energy demand. In addition, Thursday’s rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high shows optimism in the economic outlook that is bullish for energy demand.
Concerns that conflict in the Middle East may widen and disrupt the region’s crude supplies is bullish for crude. Israeli Defense Minister Gallant announced a “new phase” in the war with regional Islamist groups as Israel moved troops toward the Lebanon border, raising fears about a wider conflict that could involve Iran, a major oil producer.
Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT” ahead of Friday’s price JUMP UP of 1 Cents ~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 70.91 DN $.2800
NYMEX ULSD $2.1475 UP $.0108
NYMEX Gas $2.0107 UP $.0088
NEWS
Oct WTI crude oil Wednesday closed down -0.28 (-0.39%), and Oct RBOB gasoline closed up +0.88 (+0.44%). Crude oil and gasoline prices Wednesday settled, with gasoline posting a 2-week high. Crude was under pressure Wednesday on concerns about Chinese energy demand after two Chinese refiners run by Sinochem Group declared bankruptcy due to lackluster demand and poor refining margins. Crude has support on concerns of escalation of hostilities in the Middle East after Lebanon accused Israel of orchestrating an attack that killed several people and wounded nearly 3,000 when their pagers exploded. Crude prices also found support on Wednesday’s bullish weekly EIA report. Wednesday’s fall in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 14-month low limited losses in crude.
Wednesday’s action by the FOMC to cut interest rates by 50 bp was also positive for crude prices as the easier monetary policy may spark economic growth that supports energy demand.Wednesday’s US economic reports showed strength that supports energy demand and prices. Aug housing starts rose +9.6% m/m to a 4-month high of 1.356 million, stronger than expectations of 1.318 million. Also, Aug building permits, a proxy for future construction, rose +4.9% m/m to a 5-month high of 1.475 million, stronger than expectations of 1.410 million.
Concerns that the Israel-Hamas war could escalate into Lebanon and lead to disruption of Middle Eastern crude supplies are bullish for crude prices higher. On Tuesday, Lebanon accused Israel of installing malware or explosives in pagers used by the Lebanese people that caused the devices to explode, which left nearly 1,500 Hezbollah militants injured. Pagers are used by Hezbollah fighters for most of their communications on the belief they can avoid interceptions by Israeli intelligence. Reduced Libyan oil production and exports support oil prices as UN-led talks failed to break an impasse in Libya over control of the country’s central bank, leading to reduced crude exports. Libya’s crude exports fell to 314,000 bpd last week from 468,00 bpd at the beginning of this month. Earlier this month, Libya’s eastern government declared force majeure on all oil fields, terminals, and crude export facilities as it called for a halt to all crude production and exports due to political conflict over who controls the country’s central bank and oil revenues.
Signs of weakness in European fuel demand are bearish for crude prices after Italian refiner Eni SpA and Spain’s Repsol SA, which together account for about 13% of Europe’s oil refining capacity, said they were reducing processing at their plants because of weak margins, a sign of lackluster fuel demand in Europe.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -1.5% w/w to 65.53 million bbl in the week ended September 13.
Crude prices found support after OPEC+ on September 5 agreed to pause its scheduled crude production hike of 180,000 bpd in October and November due to recent weakness in crude prices and signs of fragile global energy demand.
An increase in Russian crude exports is negative for crude. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports rose by +110,000 bpd to 3.25 million bpd in the week to September 15. Meanwhile, a decline in Russian crude production is positive for oil prices after Russia’s Energy Ministry reported last Tuesday that Russia’s Aug crude production was 9.059 million bpd, down -30,000 bpd from July but +81,000 bpd above the output target it agreed to with OPEC+.
Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was bullish for crude. EIA crude inventories fell -1.63 million bbl to an 11-month low, a larger draw than expectations of -100,000 bbl. EIA gasoline supplies rose +69,000 bbl, a smaller build than expectations of +1.0 million bbl. In addition, EIA distillate stockpiles rose +125,000 bbl, a smaller build than expectations of +1.0 million bbl. Finally, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, fell -1.98 million bbl to a 10-1/2 month low.
Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of September 13 were -4.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -0.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -8.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending September 13 fell -0.8% w/w to 13.2 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.4 million bpd from the week of August 16.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending September 13 rose by +5 rigs to 488 rigs, modestly above the 2-1/2 year low of 477 rigs posted in the week ending July 19. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT” ahead of Wednesday’s price JUMP UP of 1.5 Cents ~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 70.09 UP $1.4400
NYMEX ULSD $2.0968 UP $0.0125
NYMEX Gas $1.9682 UP $0.0380
NEWS
Oct WTI crude oil Monday closed up +1.44 (+2.10%), and Oct RBOB gasoline closed up +3.80 (+1.97%). Crude oil and gasoline prices Monday rallied sharply to 1-week highs. Monday’s slide in the dollar index to a 1-week low was bullish for most commodity prices. Also, the disruption of crude exports from Libya has tightened global supplies and supported oil prices. A negative for crude is concern about Chinese fuel demand after Monday’s weaker-than-expected Chinese economic reports.
Reduced Libyan oil production and exports are supporting oil prices as UN-led talks failed to break an impasse in Libya over control of the country’s central bank, which has led to reduced crude exports. Libya’s crude exports fell to 314,000 bpd last week from 468,00 bpd at the beginning of this month. Earlier this month, Libya’s eastern government declared force majeure on all oil fields, terminals, and crude export facilities as it called for a halt to all crude production and exports due to political conflict over who controls the country’s central bank and oil revenues.
Chinese economic news Monday was weaker than expected, which sparked concerns about fuel demand in China, the world’s second-largest crude-consuming country. China Aug industrial production rose +4.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +4.7% y/y. Also, Aug retail sales rose +2.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.5% y/y. In addition, Aug new home prices fell -0.73% m/m, the largest decline in 9-3/4 years.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -1.5% w/w to 65.53 million bbl in the week ended September 13. Crude prices found support after OPEC+ on September 5 agreed to pause its scheduled crude production hike of 180,000 bpd in October and November due to recent weakness in crude prices and signs of fragile global energy demand.
An increase in Russian crude exports is negative for crude. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports rose by +40,000 bpd to 3.14 million bpd in the week to September 8. Meanwhile, a decline in Russian crude production is positive for oil prices after Russia’s Energy Ministry reported Tuesday that Russia’s Aug crude production was 9.059 million bpd, down -30,000 bpd from July but +81,000 bpd above the output target it agreed to with OPEC+.
Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of September 6 were -4.3% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -0.6% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -8.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending September 6 was unchanged w/w at 13.3 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.4 million bpd from the week of August 16.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending September 13 rose by +5 rigs to 488 rigs, modestly above the 2-1/2 year low of 477 rigs posted in the week ending July 19. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
