Fueling Strategy: For Diesel Users – Please fuel as needed tonight, Saturday prices will remain flat then Sunday look for prices to go UP 3 cents  ~ Be Safe Today

Fueling Strategy: For Gasoline Users  – Please fuel as needed tonight, gasoline prices Saturday will drop 2 cents ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 73.77 UP $.0010

NYMEX ULSD    $3.0045 UP $.0322

NYMEX Gas      $2.2446 DN $.0225

NEWS

Oil prices were little changed on Friday as the market balanced a weaker U.S. dollar and mixed U.S. jobs reports, but both crude benchmarks ended the first week of the year lower due to global recession concerns. Brent futures fell 12 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $78.57 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 10 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $73.77.

For the week, both Brent and WTI were down over 8%, their biggest weekly drives to start the year since 2016. Both benchmarks had gained about 13% during the prior three weeks. “The oil market might be regaining some composure following the bloodbath earlier this week, but the upside potential remains limited, at least in the near term. The economic outlook is clouded,” PVM analyst Stephen Brennock said.

U.S. services industry activity in November contracted for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years, according to a report from the Institude for supply management(ISM). But another report showed the U.S economy added jobs at a solid clip in December, pushing the unemployment rate back to a pre-pandemic low of 3.5% as the labor market remains tight.

That U.S. jobs report caused the U.S. dollar to rally as investors bet that inflation is easing and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) need not be as aggressive as some feared. A weaker dollar can boost demand for oil, as dollar-denominated commodities become cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) President Raphael Bostic said the latest U.S. jobs figures are another sign that the economy is gradually slowing and should that continue the Fed can step down to a quarter percentage point interest rate hike at its next policy meeting.

The world’s top crude exporter, Saudi Arabia, lowered prices for the Arab light crude it sells to Asia to its lowest since November 2021 amid the global pressures hitting oil.

Stock markets in China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, logged a five-day winning streak on Friday on investors’ expectations that the Chinese economy would soon emerge from its COVID woes and stage a robust recovery in 2023. But, more countries around the world are demanding visitors from China take COVID test, days before China drops border controls and ushers in an eagerly awaited return to travel for a population that has been largely stuck at home for three years.

Euro zone inflation tumbled last month but underlying price pressures are still rising and economic growth indicators are surprisingly benign, suggesting that the European Central Bank will keep raising interest rates for months to come.

India’s government expects economic growth to slow in the financial year ending March, as pandemic-related distortions ease and pent-up demand for goods levels out going into 2023.

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: For Diesel Users – Please partial fill ONLY tonight or better yet wait to fuel until Friday AM when prices will continue to fall another 11.46 cents  ~ Be Safe Today

Fueling Strategy: For Gasoline Users  – Please fuel as needed tonight, gasoline prices Friday will remain flat to up less than a penny ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 73.67 UP $.8300

NYMEX ULSD    $2.9723 UP $.0004

NYMEX Gas      $2.2671 UP $.0079

NEWS

Oil prices rose around 1% on Thursday after posting the biggest two-day loss for the start of a year in three decades with U.S. data showing lower fuel inventories providing support and economic concerns capping gains.

Big declines in the previous two days were driven by worries about a global recession, especially following weak short-term economic signs in the world’s two biggest oil consumers, the United States and China.

U.S. distillate inventories fell more than expected as a winter storm gripped the United States at the end of December, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed on Thursday.

U.S. gasoline stocks fell 346,000 barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 486,000-barrel drop.​

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell 1.4 million barrels in the week, versus expectations for a 396,000-barrel drop, the EIA data showed.

 Supporting prices earlier in the session was a statement from top U.S. pipeline operator Colonial Pipeline, which said its Line 3 had been shut for unscheduled maintenance with a restart expected for the products line on Jan. 7. Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM said the price rebound early in the session was due to the pipeline shutdown and added: “There is no doubt that the prevailing trend is down; it is a bear market.”

Reflecting near-term bearishness, the nearby contracts of the two benchmarks traded at a discount to the next month, a structure known as contango. On Wednesday, figures showing U.S. manufacturing contracted further in December pressured prices, as did concerns about economic disruption as COVID-19 works its way through China, which has abruptly dropped strict curbs on travel and activity.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: For Diesel Users –  Please fuel as needed tonight, Wednesday please partial fill ONLY due to Thursday prices will drop 20.85 cents ~ Be Safe 

Fueling Strategy: For Gasoline  – Please partial fill or don’t full tonight, gasoline prices Wednesday will fall 12 cents ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 76.93 DN $3.3300

NYMEX ULSD    $3.0865 DN $0.2085

NYMEX Gas      $2.3612 DN $0.1171

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: For Diesel Users –  Please partial fill only tonight, Saturday prices will drop 6.5 cents, then Sunday prices will jump back up 5 cents ~ Be Safe 

Fueling Strategy: For Gasoline  – Please top your tanks if can before quitting time tonight, Saturday prices will jump UP 9 cents ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 80.26 UP $.5600

NYMEX ULSD    $3.3622 UP $.0492

NYMEX Gas      $2.4595 UP $.0888

Have a Great and Safe Happy New Years,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: For Diesel Users –  Please tonight before 23:00 CST have tanks completely full of fuel, Friday prices will go UP 2.5 cents ~ Be Safe 

Fueling Strategy: For Gasoline  – Please fuel as needed tonight, prices Friday will mostly go unchanged ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 78.40 DN $.5600

NYMEX ULSD    $3.3130 DN $.0648

NYMEX Gas      $2.3707 UP $.0078

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Diesel Users, Please, tonight before 23:00 CST have tanks completely full of fuel, Thursday prices will jump UP 8 cents then Friday look for prices to go up another 2.5 cents  ~ Be Safe

Gasoline Users, Please have tanks full of fuel is possible, Thursday prices will remain unchanged – Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 78.96 DN $.5700

NYMEX ULSD    $3.3778 UP $.0241

NYMEX Gas      $2.3629 UP $.0027

Market Conditions 2022 Overview 

Oil prices have increased significantly from their pandemic lows and are substantially higher than 2019 levels. They don’t match the pre-fracking era of $100 oil, but they may get up there. The outlook for oil prices is driven largely by global economic growth, but it’s a complicated relationship. Gasoline prices to consumers, of course, will respond with oil prices.

Oil prices fluctuate more than most consumer prices. Big gains are often followed by large declines, and vice versa, so the recent uptick or downticks cannot be projected into the distant future.

The most crucial fact about oil is that new supply cannot be brought to market quickly. In many parts of the economy, a rise in leads prices many businesses to increase production. When cotton prices rise, for example, it takes about one growing season for them to drop again.

Oil companies can usually get a little more production from their current wells. They can be a more aggressive in pumping, though that sometimes sacrifices long-term production for short-term gains. Oil companies can also accelerate new development and keep open wells that might have been shut down at lower prices. Oil can also be sold out of inventory. These are all minor changes, though.

Large increases in oil supply take about a decade, though the timeline varies greatly from project to project. Geological surveys are reviewed to identify good prospects. Exploratory wells are drilled, and the results evaluated. Some exploration proves fruitless. On the successful discoveries, production wells are drilled, and local infrastructure is installed to get the oil to market. New refining capacity may be needed, which also takes time.

When demand increases beyond the supply that is quickly available, prices rise while the world waits for new supply to come to market.

When demand slows down, due to global economic recession or deceleration of growth, all that supply capacity is still there. Much of the cost of bringing oil to market is borne up front, with low production costs once all the wells are drilled and infrastructure is in place. And more production may come online from projects that were begun in the high-price days. So, companies keep pumping oil even after prices drop, driving prices lower.

OPEC and other political supply decisions are relatively small compared to these huge forces at work pushing prices up and down.

Current oil prices reflect not only current supply and demand, but also long-term issues. Traders can stock up on oil if they anticipate higher demand—and thus higher prices—in the future. Or they can dump their inventory if they get pessimistic. Thus, the current prices reflect current opinion about the long-term supply-demand balance in the market. The recent run-up, which doubled prices in 12 months, reflects a global economy switching from pandemic-induced recession to long-term growth.

The Covid Effect

If the world continues to make progress on keeping Covid-19 infection and death rates low, the current price of about $80 a barrel is reasonable. Actual growth that matches expectations would not push prices higher.

The greatest upside opportunity for economic growth is in Asia, which continues to limit economic activity to fight Covid. Improvement in either their infections or their policies could boost economic activity enough to justify prices at $100 for a couple of years.

On the downside, another Covid variant with high infectiousness or mortality would set back the global economy and push prices down, though probably not to their pandemic low under $20.

Conclusion

The range of possibilities is quite wide, reflecting both our uncertainty about the global economy as well as the high sensitivity of current prices to expectations for the economy. The current price of about $80 a barrel is a good guess for the next few years, but with wide uncertainty.

Retail gasoline and diesel prices will stabilize around current levels if this oil forecast proves true. The price in any state reflects not only general oil prices but also state and local taxes as well as the location of the gas station.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Diesel users, Please keep your tanks full of fuel, Thursday prices will jump up 8+ cents.

Gas users, Prices will drop 2.5 cents Wednesday.

NMEX Crude     $ 79.53 DN $.0300

NYMEX ULSD    $3.3537 UP $.0876

NYMEX Gas      $2.3602 DN $.0234

NEWS

The U.S. benchmark oil price rose on Monday evening and early on Tuesday to above $80 per barrel after China announced on Monday a major easing of its Covid travel quarantine rules and after Winter Storm Elliott knocked offline around 1.5 million bpd of refinery capacity in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

As of early morning trade in Europe on Tuesday, WTI Crude was up by 0.80% at $80.19. The international benchmark, Brent Crude, was trading up by 0.85% on the day, at $84.63 per barrel.

Oil prices received a major boost late on Monday and early Tuesday after China said that as of January 8 inbound travelers to China would no longer be subject to mandatory travel quarantine. China is seeing a surge in Covid cases after abandoning other parts of its so-called “zero Covid” policy that was in place for more than two and a half years.

Despite the soaring number of infections and disruption to industries and supply chains, oil demand could be set for a major boost in the world’s top crude oil importer after the initial Covid waves, analysts say. Oil prices have reflected some of that optimism in recent days, although trade is very thin due to the holiday period.

On Tuesday, oil was also supported by refinery closures in the United States due to the severe Winter Storm Elliott. The huge storm swept through Canada and the United States just ahead of the Christmas holiday weekend, bringing freezing temperatures, snow, and icy conditions. Power supply was interrupted in some areas, thousands of flights were canceled, and Christmas travel plans were disrupted.

Hard-freeze warnings were issued for all the states along the U.S. Gulf Coast, where most of the U.S. refining capacity is located.

As of Friday, December 23, as much as 1.5 million bpd of the Gulf Coast’s refining capacity was shut down due to the freezing temperatures, per Reuters estimates.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

 https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Diesel users, Please keep your tanks full of fuel today/tonight for safety purposes, Saturday prices will remain flat to slightly up but Christmas day look for diesel prices to jump up 13+ cents.

Gas users, look for a jump of 13.5 cents Saturday – definitely top your tanks before the Christmas break.

Fuel Manager Services wishes every one a safe and great Christmas! We are so thankful to get to work with the management teams and drivers daily. 

NMEX Crude     $ 79.56 UP $2.0700

NYMEX ULSD    $3.2661 UP $0.1347

NYMEX Gas      $2.3836 UP $0.1348

NEWS

A larger-than-expected inventory draw and a major winter storm in the U.S. this week pushed oil prices higher, although fears of further monetary tightening have limited the rally.

A supportive EIA weekly report and concerns about the big freeze forcing production shut-ins pushed oil prices higher this week, although news of better-than-expected Q3 performance in the U.S. has raised the prospect of further interest rate hikes. While fears of an economic slowdown added downward pressure to oil prices, both WTI and Brent rallied on Friday morning as bullish sentiment returned.

Keystone Spill Triggers Permitting Scrutiny. The US pipeline regulator has pledged to review all special permits that waive operating requirements for trunk pipelines, coming on the back of the Keystone oil spill in rural Kansas, the only US pipeline with a special permit to operate at a higher pressure.

Saudi Arabia Slams Politics in Oil. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman lashed out against the politicizing of statistics and forecasts aimed at discrediting OPEC+, criticizing the IEA’s recent market calls as sowing confusion and triggering misguided interpretations of the market.

US Gas Prices Spike Ahead of Freeze. With swathes of the US preparing for a cold spell, natural gas spot prices in the Northeast have soared to a five-year high with the benchmark Algonquin city-gates quote exceeding $30 per mm-Btu, a whopping $22-23/mm-Btu premium to Henry Hub.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Diesel users, Please keep your tanks full tanks tonight for your protection during this blizzard across most of the midwest, Friday prices will jump UP 8 cents  ~ Be Safe

Gasoline users, Prices will remain flat to a slight increase of less than one penny Friday – Be Safe!

NMEX Crude     $ 77.49 DN $.8000

NYMEX ULSD    $3.1314 DN $.0081

NYMEX Gas      $2.2488 DN $.0070

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams