Fueling Strategy: Please keep your tanks topped today, tonight before 23:00 CST have your tanks completely full of fuel due to Friday prices will jump UP 7 cents, Friday will be a Partial Fill ONLY  day due to prices will fall 10 cents~Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 81.22 UP $.6700

NYMEX ULSD    $3.2624 DN $.1011

NYMEX Gas      $2.3420 DN $.0427

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

www.owneroperatoradvisoryservice.com 

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please top your tanks tonight before 23:00 CST Thursday prices will jump UP 8 cents then Friday look for another 7 cent jump UP ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 80.55 UP $2.3500

NYMEX ULSD    $3.3629 UP $0.0670

NYMEX Gas      $2.4185 UP $0.0864

NEWS

Oil futures settled higher on Wednesday, finding support after U.S. government data revealed that domestic crude inventories fell by nearly 13 million barrels, down for a third consecutive week, ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ decision on crude production levels.

U.S. and global benchmark crude prices, however, registered a monthly loss —the fifth monthly loss in six months, as traders looked for any signs of an easing of China’s COVID restrictions.

Price action

• West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery rose $2.35, or 3%, to settle at $80.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since Nov. 22, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Prices based on the front month ended down by 6.9% for the month.
• January Brent crude the global benchmark, was up $2.40, or 2.9%, to end at $85.43 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Prices for the contract, which expired at the end of the trading session, fell 9.9% for the month. February Brent the most actively traded contract, gained 3.2% to $86.97 a barrel.
• Back on Nymex, December gasoline rose 3.7% to $2.4185 a gallon, end the month about 14% lower, while December heating oil was up 2% at $3.3629 a gallon, but lost nearly 20% for the month. The December contracts expired at the end of the session.
• January natural gas settled at $6.93 per million British thermal units, down 4.2% Wednesday, but up around 9% for the month.

Supply data

The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported that US Crude inventories dropped 12.6 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 25. That followed two consecutive weekly losses.

On average, analysts forecasted a decline of 4.4 million barrels, according to a poll conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights. The American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday that U.S. crude inventories fell 7.9 million barrels last week, according to news reports.

In a note Wednesday, Alex Hodes, energy analyst at INTL FCStone, pointed out that exports of crude hit nearly 35 million barrels for the week and crude and refined product exports hit a fresh all-time high of 11.8 million barrels a day.

The EIA also reported weekly inventory increases of 2.8 million barrels for gasoline and 3.5 million barrels for distillates. The S&P Global Commodity Insights survey had called for increases of 600,000 barrels for gasoline and 800,000 barrels for distillates.

Crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., Nymex delivery hub fell by 400,000 barrels for the week, the EIA said, while stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined by 1.4 million barrels.

China and OPEC+

Crude has also found support on expectations China will move to begin relaxing COVID curbs after a wave of rare protests. The restrictions have crimped crude demand from the world’s largest energy consumer.

Chinese demand “remains a top source of downside risk, as COVID containment efforts and related protests have created a challenging climate for near-term product demand,” said Robbie Fraser, manager, global research and analytics at Schneider Electric, in a daily note.

“The state of Chinese product demand stands alongside ongoing interest rate increases as the two most prominent downside risks to crude prices,” he said.

On Tuesday, reports said OPEC+ will hold a virtual meeting Sunday, instead of gathering in person. “Opting for no-drama optics seemingly increases the likelihood of a rollover decision,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy and MENA research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note Tuesday.

Monthly move

For the month, oil prices fell as “uncertainty emerged as the dominant influence on futures prices,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

Oil followed the news tied to China’s zero-COVID policy throughout the month given its influence on energy demand.

Last week, much weaker than expected U.S. economic data “revamped concerns about a potentially deep and painful recession looming ahead,” Richey told MarketWatch. WTI then saw a brief intraday drop on Monday to its lowest price since December, while Brent touched it slowest level since January.

For now, WTI is holding onto its “long-standing range” between $76 and $93 with traders assessing the “fluid fundamental backdrop” as the market begins the final month of the year, he said.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

www.owneroperatoradvisoryservice.com 

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please partial fill ONLY tonight or better yet do NOT fuel until Wednesday when prices will drop drop 2.5 cents ~ Be Safe Today

NMEX Crude     $ 78.20 UP $.9600

NYMEX ULSD    $3.2959 UP $.0805

NYMEX Gas      $2.3321 UP $.0015

NEWS

Oil held onto gains as market uncertainty over OPEC’s upcoming decision on production tugged the price in opposite directions.

West Texas Intermediate rose 1.2% to settle above $78 Tuesday, after trading in a $3 range. Volatility was expected to rise in the days leading up to the meeting this weekend as traders search for any clue on how OPEC and its allies will respond to deteriorating market conditions for producers. The shape of the futures curve has flipped in recent weeks, signaling an oversupplied market.

OPEC+ does “not like contango and that is what has raised market expectations of deeper cuts,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “I’m not ruling out deeper cuts — that’s of course on the table — but I would say that’s not our base case.”

Earlier in the session, prices rallied above $79 a barrel after Beijing said it would bolster vaccination among seniors, a move regarded by health experts as crucial for reopening the economy of the world’s biggest crude importer. Prices briefly flirted with losses after Reuters reported that the production cartel would stick with its current oil-output policy, citing unidentified people.

On Monday, Bloomberg reported that OPEC+ may consider supply cuts to counter market weakness; a move that could potentially deepen curbs agreed to last time members convened in October.

Oil has lost about 9% this month as a deteriorating physical market revealed slackening demand. OPEC+ gathering precedes a deadline for European Union curbs on Russian flows as the bloc struggles to agree on a price cap. Concerns that tighter monetary policy will slow consumption as well as doubts about demand in China prompted OPEC+ to announce a major output cut last month.

The weakening at the front of the oil future curve has been precipitous. On Monday, Brent’s nearest timespread closed at its weakest level since 2020, a sign of oversupply. Until this month it had been in the opposite structure, known as backwardation, all year. 

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

www.owneroperatoradvisoryservice.com 

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please fuel as needed today/tonight ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 77.24 UP $.9600

NYMEX ULSD    $3.2154 DN $.0237

NYMEX Gas      $2.3306 UP $.0024

NEWS

Oil rose as OPEC+ delegates said deeper production cuts could be an option when they meet this weekend.

West Texas Intermediate rose 1.3% to settle above $77 a barrel. Earlier in the session, oil prices slumped below $74 to the lowest since December as protests over harsh anti-Covid measures erupted across China triggered a broad selloff in commodities and equity markets. With the oil market’s structure looking increasingly weak, delegates from the group say additional reductions could be an option.

The nearest portion of the Brent and WTI futures curves flipped into contango — a bearish structure indicating oversupply — with physical markets also under pressure. Speculators markedly reduced bullish bets, posting the sixth-largest reduction in net-long positions on record for Brent last week. Underscoring the market’s shaky fundamentals, JPMorgan Chase & Co. reduced its Brent crude forecast by $8 to $90 as it expects Russian production to hit prewar levels by mid-2023. 

OPEC+ will meet Sunday to decide on its next output level, while European Union nations debate whether to set a price cap as low as $62 a barrel on exports of Russian crude oil. Several countries demanded a level that could put more pressure on Moscow, but the talks remain stuck, diplomats said.

Over the weekend, the US moved to grant super major Chevron Corp. a license to resume oil production in Venezuela after sanctions halted all drilling activities almost three years ago. The sanctions relief comes after Norwegian mediators announced the restart of political talks between President Nicolas Maduro and the opposition. Yet Chevron’s CEO Mike Wirth said it might take years to begin to refurbish those oil fields, meaning additional output won’t be immediate. 

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

www.owneroperatoradvisoryservice.com 

 “To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please partial fill ONLY tonight due to Thursday prices will fall another 2.5 cents then Friday prices will drop 11 cents ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 77.94 DN $3.0100

NYMEX ULSD    $3.3593 DN $0.1120

NYMEX Gas      $2.4744 DN $0.0661

Have a Great Turkey Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

www.owneroperatoradvisoryservice.com 

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please partial fill ONLY today/tonight, Wednesday prices will drop 2 cents then Turkey Day prices will fall another 2.5 cents ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 80.95 UP $.9100

NYMEX ULSD    $3.4713 DN $.0260

NYMEX Gas      $2.5405 UP $.1034

NEWS

Oil edged higher as investors juggled an uncertain supply outlook alongside a European Union proposal to soften Russian crude sanctions.

Prices firmed Tuesday after a bumpy ride in the prior session that saw crude briefly plunge on speculation  OPEC+ was considering an output hike. Group leader Saudi Arabia and fellow Gulf producer Kuwait both rejected the suggestion, prompting a recovery. West Texas Intermediate futures rose to settle near $81 a barrel.

Meanwhile, the EU watered down its latest sanctions proposal for a price cap on Russia’s oil exports. The block proposed adding a 45-day transition to the introduction of the cap, softening key shipping provisions.

Covid concerns have led oil prices lower this month. Looming European sanctions on Russian flows — and a Group of Seven price-cap plan — have boosted uncertainty, with Chinese buyers pausing some Russian purchases. The cloudy outlook across the market has affected liquidity, with open interest for WTI the lowest since 2014.

“Crude is still in the process of reversing the OPEC rumor of production increases from yesterday,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at Bok Financial Securities in an interview. “While China’s Covid issues are a concern, the price break the past two trading sessions was definitely overstated.”

Crude-consumption trends in China remain in the spotlight as repeated Covid-19 outbreaks prompt officials to press on with lockdowns and curbs on movement , hurting the outlook for demand. This comes just weeks after investors had speculated Beijing may be moving away from its zero-tolerance stance. 

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

www.owneroperatoradvisoryservice.com 

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please fuel as needed today/tonight ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 79.73 DN $.3500

NYMEX ULSD    $3.4973 DN $.0208

NYMEX Gas      $2.4371 UP $.0163

NEWS

Oil emerged from a volatile session largely unchanged after Saudi Arabia denied a report that it was discussing an oil-production increase.

Brent and WTI settled little changed after swinging in a $5 range on Monday. The global benchmark’s prompt spread briefly dipped into contango after the Wall Street Journal reported that OPEC+ is considering an output hike of 500,000 barrels a day. Saudi Arabia denied the report, adding the “current cut of 2 million barrels per day by OPEC+ continues until the end of 2023.” The UAE also said it has not discussed changing the bloc’s last agreement.

The whipsaw in prices served as a reminder of how vulnerable the market remains to sharp swings driven by dueling headlines. Volatility jumped the most since late June when the Group of Seven nations started to consider a price cap on Russian crude. Despite recovering from intraday lows not seen since January, prices remained lower as China reported its first deaths from Covid in six months and lockdowns tightened in some cities.

“Trading in a 5% range supports the opinion that the extreme headline risk in the commodity makes it difficult to put real money to work, which has resulted in reduced volumes and open interest through all of 2022,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management.

Crude has erased the gains made at the start of the quarter, when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia,  agreed to reduce production by 2 million barrels a day. A looming European Union ban on Russian seaborne flows and the G7’s price-cap plan are clouding the outlook, with officials possibly set to announce the cap’s level on Wednesday as they step up their response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lowered its fourth-quarter forecast for Brent crude by $10 to $100 a barrel, according to a note, with the reduction driven in part by the possibility of further anti-virus measures in China as cases climb. 

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

www.owneroperatoradvisoryservice.com 

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please fuel as needed today/tonight BUT plan on Saturday’s 9 cents drop in fuel prices then Sunday we’ll see prices drop another 1/2  cent ~Be Safe Today

NMEX Crude     $ 80.08 DN $1.5600

NYMEX ULSD    $3.5181 DN $0.0067

NYMEX Gas      $2.4208 DN $0.0339

NEWS

Oil dropped the most in a week since April as the full weight of languishing Chinese demand and more economic tightening radically shifted the market’s sentiment.

West Texas Intermediate fell 1.9% to settle just over $80 a barrel. US futures fell 10% this week, the most since Biden ordered a historic discharge of crude from the Strategic Reserves in April. Swelling Codid cases in China and aggressive monetary tightening by central banks have combined to erase all the gains earned last month when OPEC and its partners slashed production by 2 million barrels a day.

Pullbacks were evident along most of the oil-trading complex. On Friday, the US prompt-spread flipped into contango, a structure that signals oversupply, for the first time since last year. Meanwhile, a deteriorating market for physical barrels has also weighed on prices as demand for winter-delivery cargoes has weakened.

The collapsing gauges of market health sent bulls running for the exits. Hedge funds slashed bullish bets for Brent crude the most in four months. Money managers’ net-long positions on the international benchmark fell around 30,000 contracts, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission released Friday

Crude is trading below several key moving averages, sparking so-called technical-based selling. A further collapse in the market’s structure on Friday added to the selling.

Coronaviris cases in China have climbed to near their highest level of the pandemic, as authorities signal they’re preparing for even more infections. The increases will likely prove a test for any loosening of the country’s Covid rules. 

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

www.owneroperatoradvisoryservice.com 

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please partial fill ONLY today/tonight, Friday prices will drop 3 cents the Saturday look for a 9 cent drop ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 81.64 DN $3.9500

NYMEX ULSD    $3.5248 DN $0.0888

NYMEX Gas      $2.4547 DN $0.0533

NEWS

Oil tumbled as everything from Wall Street sentiment to sagging demand for physical barrels of crude pointed toward an economy headed toward a slowdown.

Brent futures fell below $90 a barrel for the first time in six weeks and West Texas Intermediate settled at the lowest since September. While Federal Reserve officials reinterated their resolve to continue raising interest rates and warned of pain ahead, lackluster demand among oil traders for crude this winter signaled a slowdown may already be underway in energy markets.

Pullbacks were evident along most of the oil-trading complex. Prices for crude cargoes in trading hubs from Houston to Singapore have fallen, surprising traders who expected prices to rise ahead of the European Union’s approaching ban on Russian oil imports. The oil curve, a reflection of where the market sees future prices, has collapsed, with the US oil market on the cusp of flipping into a structure that signals oversupply for the first time since last year.

Crude bids have collapsed as the reality sets in that Chinese demand most likely gets worse before it gets better, said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. “Front month time spreads — the backbone of tight markets — are the weakest they have been since March 2021 signaling demand concerns are real and investors should be cautious when buying the dip.”

While lower-than-usual inventories and geopolitical risks have lead to occasional spikes, recessionary fears have weighed heavily on crude prices in the second half of this year. JPMorgan Chase & Co. projected the US will enter a “mild” recession next year due to interest-rate hikes. Meanwhile, traders are keeping their eyes peeled on rising Covid cases in China as an indicator for crude consumption.  

A short burst of optimism from China’s decision to ease some quarantine restrictions last week fizzled as it’s become apparent that rising Covid cases there will continue to stymie travel.

Oil traders are also having to grapple with surging rates to charter ships to haul oil across the globe. On Wednesday, benchmark earnings for supertankers that can haul 2 million barrels jumped above $96,000 a day. Ships on the US-to-China route now cost almost $15 million, the most since April 2020. The strength in freight is weighing on the crude market’s structure, the Citigroup analysts said. 

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

 https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

 As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

www.owneroperatoradvisoryservice.com 

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please tonight before 23:00 CST have tanks completely FULL of fuel due to Thursday prices will jump UP 10 cents but Friday look for a small correction down of 2 to 3 cents ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 85.59 DN $1.3300

NYMEX ULSD    $3.6136 DN $0.0277

NYMEX Gas      $2.5080 DN $0.0081

NEWS

(Forbes) Last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that distillate inventories were at their lowest levels since 2008. (The primary distillates are diesel, jet fuel, and heating oil). However, in 2008 distillate levels were low coming out of spring. Currently, they are low going into fall. That’s far worse than the situation in 2008.

Distillate demand generally spikes in spring — when farmers are planting crops — and in fall, when they are harvesting those crops and people start buying fuel oil for winter. Thus, a low distillate inventory in late April 2008 isn’t quite as serious as a low inventory in October 2022. In fact, distillate inventories haven’t been this low in October since the EIA began reporting this data in 1982.

These low distillate inventories are why diesel prices are above $5.00 a gallon nationwide, even though the nationwide average price for gasoline has dropped below $4.00 a gallon.

Why is there a diesel shortage this year?

There are four factors, but two of those factors are in play every year.

As mentioned above, distillate demand spikes at this time of year. But, it does that every year. This is also the time of year that refineries are doing maintenance. They tend to do that in the spring and fall, which is when demand is lower and the weather is decent. So, refinery capacity drops at this time of year. Third, U.S. refinery capacity has fallen in the past few years as several unprofitable refineries were closed. So, that’s a new factor that has appeared in the past couple of years.

But the primary reason is the cutoff of Russian imports. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. was importing nearly 700,000 barrels per day (BPD) of petroleum and petroleum products. Most of those imports were finished products and refinery inputs that boosted distillate supplies in the U.S. The loss of those Russian imports have caused problems for refineries as they struggle to fill holes in their product slates. Refineries do have a small amount of flexibility in shifting gasoline production to diesel production. But it’s a relatively small amount (e.g., ~5% in a refinery I once worked in). That also means that if refiners do shift production, it potentially creates shortages in the gasoline market.

Some relief is on the way, as some diesel imports are on the way from Europe to the East Coast. But, the distillate market won’t likely return to normal before next summer at the earliest.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

www.owneroperatoradvisoryservice.com 

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams