The Fuel Update

Market Close: May 15 Up, Diesel UP $.0725, Gas UP $.0418

May 15th, 2023 by loren

Fueling Strategy: Please fuel as needed today/tonight ~Be Safe

NMEX Crude $ 71.11 UP $1.0700

NYMEX ULSD $2.3780 UP $0.0725

NYMEX Gas $2.4720 UP $0.0418

NEWS

June WTI crude oil on Monday closed up +1.07 (+1.53%), and June RBOB gasoline closed up +4.18 (+1.72%). Crude oil and gasoline prices Monday shook off early losses and closed moderately higher. A weaker dollar Monday gave energy prices a boost along with expectations for U.S. fuel demand to increase this Memorial Day holiday. However, gains in crude were limited as the ongoing U.S. debt-ceiling negotiations inject a risk-off sentiment in asset markets.

The outlook for stronger U.S. fuel demand is bullish for crude prices. AAA is forecasting that as many as 42.3 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home this Memorial Day weekend, up +7% y/y and the third-busiest Memorial Day on record.

Crude has support on reduced Canadian crude output after wildfires in Alberta halted about 145,000 bpd of crude production from several Canadian crude producers. Extreme heat in western Canada sparked additional wildfires over the weekend, with 90 active wildfires in Alberta as of Monday morning, with 23 still considered out of control.

A bullish factor for crude was U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm’s comment last Thursday that the U.S. aims to start buying crude to refill the SPR after the conclusion of a 26 million bbl sale of SPR crude is scheduled to finish in late June.

In a bearish factor, Vortexa reported Monday that the amount of crude stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +9% w/w to 86.69 million bbl in the week ended May 12.

Signs of stronger Chinese fuel demand are supportive for crude prices after China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported on May 4 that the number of domestic trips made over the five-day Golden Week holidays reached 274 million, up +19% from the pre-pandemic level in 2019 and almost +71% higher than last year.

The ongoing halt of Iraqi crude exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan is tightening global oil supplies and is bullish for crude prices. The Turkish government said it wants to negotiate a $1.5 billion settlement that it has been ordered to pay before allowing Iraqi crude exports to resume through its pipeline. Oil exports of 500,000 bpd from the Turkish port of Ceyhan have been halted since March 25 after Iraq won an arbitration case from the International Chamber of Commerce that said Turkey violated a 1973 pipeline transit agreement by allowing crude from the Kurdish region to be exported without Iraqi government consent.

Crude oil prices are being undercut by signs that Russia has not delivered on its threat to cut crude output. Tanker-tracking data from Bloomberg shows Russia’s crude exports jumped above 4 million bpd in the week of April 28. Russia has halted the publication of crude and condensate production data in an attempt to disguise if it has actually cut crude output.

Crude prices surged on April 3 after OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of more than 1 million bpd starting May 1. Saudi Arabia said the cuts were a “precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.” OPEC Mar crude production fell by -80,000 bpd to 29.16 million bpd.

Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of May 5 were -1.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -6.8% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -16.1% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil production in the week ended May 5 was unchanged w/w to 12.3 million bpd, only 0.8 million bpd (-6.1%) below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended May 12 fell by -2 to an 11-month low of 586 rigs, falling further below the 2-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted on December 2. U.S. active oil rigs have more than tripled from the 17-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 18, 2023

JULY 22 TO JULY 30, 2023

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

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Market Close: May 12 Down, Diesel DN $.0440, Gas DN $.0323

May 12th, 2023 by loren

Fueling Strategy: Please partial fill only tonight or wait to fuel, Saturday prices will go down 4.5 cents BUT please partial fill or wait until Sunday if possible due to prices will continue downward another 4.5 cents~Be Safe

NMEX Crude $ 70.04 DN $.8300

NYMEX ULSD $2.3055 DN $.0440

NYMEX Gas $2.4254 DN $.0323

NEWS

June WTI crude oil on Friday closed down -0.83 (-1.17%), and June RBOB gasoline closed down -3.228 (-1.38%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices Friday gave up an early advance and closed moderately lower. Friday’s rally in the dollar index to a 1-month high weighed on crude prices, as did a decline in U.S. consumer sentiment to a 6-month low.

Crude prices Friday initially moved higher on concerns about tight global supplies as Iraqi crude exports of around 500,000 bpd remain halted from the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Also, the U.S. Energy Department said it would soon start buying oil to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

A bearish factor for crude is the deterioration of U.S. consumer sentiment after Friday’s University of Michigan U.S. May consumer sentiment index fell -5.8 to a 6-month low of 57.7, weaker than expectations of 63.0.

A bullish factor for crude was U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm’s comment late Thursday that the U.S. aims to start buying crude to refill the SPR after the conclusion of a 26 million bbl sale of SPR crude is scheduled to finish in late June.

Strength in fuel demand in India, the world’s third-largest crude consumer, is bullish for prices after India’s Apr diesel consumption jumped +8.6% y/y to a record 7.82 MMT.

Crude has support on reduced Canadian crude output after wildfires in Alberta halted about 145,000 bpd of crude production from several Canadian crude producers. However, firefighters are progressing in battling the fires, and crude output should soon resume. The number of wildfires has fallen to 73, down from more than 80 on Thursday and more than 100 earlier in the week.

In a bullish factor, Vortexa reported Monday that the amount of crude stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -16% w/w to 78.03 million bbl in the week ended May 5 to the lowest in 3 months.

Signs of stronger Chinese fuel demand are supportive for crude prices after China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported last Thursday that the number of domestic trips made over the five-day Golden Week holidays reached 274 million, up +19% from the pre-pandemic level in 2019 and almost +71% higher than last year.

The ongoing halt of Iraqi crude exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan is tightening global oil supplies and is bullish for crude prices. The Turkish government said it wants to negotiate a $1.5 billion settlement that it has been ordered to pay before allowing Iraqi crude exports to resume through its pipeline. Oil exports of 500,000 bpd from the Turkish port of Ceyhan have been halted since March 25 after Iraq won an arbitration case from the International Chamber of Commerce that said Turkey violated a 1973 pipeline transit agreement by allowing crude from the Kurdish region to be exported without Iraqi government consent.

Crude oil prices are being undercut by signs that Russia has not delivered on its threat to cut crude output. Tanker-tracking data from Bloomberg shows Russia’s crude exports jumped above 4 million bpd in the week of April 28. Russia has halted the publication of crude and condensate production data in an attempt to disguise if it has actually cut crude output.

Crude prices surged on April 3 after OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of more than 1 million bpd starting May 1. Saudi Arabia said the cuts were a “precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.” OPEC Mar crude production fell by -80,000 bpd to 29.16 million bpd.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of May 5 were -1.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -6.8% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -16.1% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil production in the week ended May 5 was unchanged w/w to 12.3 million bpd, only 0.8 million bpd (-6.1%) below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended May 12 fell by -2 to an 11-month low of 586 rigs, falling further below the 2-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted on December 2. U.S. active oil rigs have more than tripled from the 17-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 18, 2023

JULY 22 TO JULY 30, 2023

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Posted in Fuel News | Comments Off

Market Close: May 11 Down, Diesel DN $.0439

May 11th, 2023 by loren

Fueling Strategy: Please fuel as needed today, and tonight before 23:00 CST have tanks completely full of fuel, Friday prices will go up 1/2 cents~Be Safe

NMEX Crude $ 70.87 DN $1.6900

NYMEX ULSD $2.3495 DN $0.0439

NYMEX Gas $2.4577 DN $0.0372

NEWS

June WTI crude oil on Thursday closed down -1.69 (-2.33%), and June RBOB gasoline closed down -3.72 (-1.49%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday posted moderate losses. Thursday’s rally in the dollar index to a 1-week high undercut energy prices.

Also, demand concerns weighed on crude prices as Thursday’s weaker-than-expected economic news from China and the U.S., the world’s two biggest crude consumers, sparked fears about a slowdown in the global economy that is bearish for energy demand. U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims rose +22,000 to a 1-1/2 year high of 264,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 245,000. Also, China’s Apr aggregate financing, the broadest measure of credit growth, rose +1.22 trillion yuan, weaker than expectations of +2.0 trillion yuan and the smallest increase in 6 months.

Strength in fuel demand in India, the world’s third-largest crude consumer, is bullish for prices after India’s Apr diesel consumption jumped +8.6% y/y to a record 7.82 MMT.

Crude has support on reduced Canadian crude output after wildfires in Alberta halted about 145,000 bpd of crude production from several Canadian crude producers. However, firefighters are progressing in battling the fires, and crude output should soon resume.

In a bullish factor, Vortexa reported Monday that the amount of crude stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -16% w/w to 78.03 million bbl in the week ended May 5 to the lowest in 3 months.

Signs of stronger Chinese fuel demand are supportive for crude prices after China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported last Thursday that the number of domestic trips made over the five-day Golden Week holidays reached 274 million, up +19% from the pre-pandemic level in 2019 and almost +71% higher than last year.

The ongoing halt of Iraqi crude exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan is tightening global oil supplies and is bullish for crude prices. The Turkish government said it wants to negotiate a $1.5 billion settlement that it has been ordered to pay before allowing Iraqi crude exports to resume through its pipeline. Oil exports of 400,000 bpd from the Turkish port of Ceyhan have been halted since March 25 after Iraq won an arbitration case from the International Chamber of Commerce that said Turkey violated a 1973 pipeline transit agreement by allowing crude from the Kurdish region to be exported without Iraqi government consent.

Crude oil prices are being undercut by signs that Russia has not delivered on its threat to cut crude output. Tanker-tracking data from Bloomberg shows Russia’s crude exports jumped above 4 million bpd in the week of April 28. Russia has halted the publication of crude and condensate production data in an attempt to disguise if it has actually cut crude output.

Crude prices surged on April 3 after OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of more than 1 million bpd starting May 1. Saudi Arabia said the cuts were a “precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.” OPEC Mar crude production fell by -80,000 bpd to 29.16 million bpd.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of May 5 were -1.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -6.8% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -16.1% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil production in the week ended May 5 was unchanged w/w to 12.3 million bpd, only 0.8 million bpd (-6.1%) below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended May 5 fell -3 to 588 rigs, moderately below the 2-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted on December 2. U.S. active oil rigs have more than tripled from the 17-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 18, 2023

JULY 22 TO JULY 30, 2023

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Posted in Fuel News | Comments Off

Market Close: May 10 Mixed

May 10th, 2023 by loren

Fueling Strategy: Please fuel as needed today, and tonight before 23:00 CST have tanks completely full of fuel, Thursday prices will go up 1.25 cents~Be Safe

NMEX Crude $ 72.56 DN $1.1500

NYMEX ULSD $2.3934 UP $0.0032

NYMEX Gas $2.4949 UP $0.0150

NEWS

June WTI crude oil on Wednesday closed down -1.15 (-1.56%), and June RBOB gasoline closed up +1.50 (+0.60%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices Wednesday settled mixed, with gasoline climbing to a 1-week high. A weaker dollar Wednesday was supportive of energy prices. Also, signs of strength in fuel demand in India supported crude prices. However, crude prices moved lower after Wednesday’s weekly EIA inventory report showed that U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose last week.

Strength in fuel demand in India, the world’s third-largest crude consumer, is bullish for prices after India’s Apr diesel consumption jumped +8.6% y/y to a record 7.82 MMT.

Crude has support on a reduction of Canadian crude output after wildfires in Alberta halted about 145,000 bpd of crude production from several Canadian crude producers. However, firefighters are progressing in battling the fires, and crude output should soon resume.

Strength in the crude crack spread is bullish for oil prices as the crack spread Wednesday rose to a 2-1/2 week high, encouraging refiners to boost their crude purchases and refine the crude into gasoline and distillates.

In a bullish factor, Vortexa reported Monday that the amount of crude stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -16% w/w to 78.03 million bbl in the week ended May 5 to the lowest in 3 months.

Signs of stronger Chinese fuel demand are supportive for crude prices after China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported last Thursday that the number of domestic trips made over the five-day Golden Week holidays reached 274 million, up +19% from the pre-pandemic level in 2019 and almost +71% higher than last year.

The ongoing halt of Iraqi crude exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan is tightening global oil supplies and is bullish for crude prices. The Turkish government said it wants to negotiate a $1.5 billion settlement that it has been ordered to pay before allowing Iraqi crude exports to resume through its pipeline. Oil exports of 400,000 bpd from the Turkish port of Ceyhan have been halted since March 25 after Iraq won an arbitration case from the International Chamber of Commerce that said Turkey violated a 1973 pipeline transit agreement by allowing crude from the Kurdish region to be exported without Iraqi government consent.

Crude oil prices are being undercut by signs that Russia has not delivered on its threat to cut crude output. Tanker-tracking data from Bloomberg shows Russia’s crude exports jumped above 4 million bpd in the week of April 28. Russia has halted the publication of crude and condensate production data in an attempt to disguise if it has actually cut crude output.

Crude prices surged on April 3 after OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of more than 1 million bpd starting May 1. Saudi Arabia said the cuts were a “precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.” OPEC Mar crude production fell by -80,000 bpd to 29.16 million bpd.

Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was mixed for crude and products. On the bearish side, EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose +2.95 million bbl versus expectations of a -2.5 million bbl draw. Also, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, rose +397,000 bbl. On the bullish side, EIA gasoline stockpiles fell -3.2 million bbl to a 5-month low, a bigger decline than expectations of -1.5 million bbl. Also, EIA distillate inventories fell -4.2 million bbl to a 7-month low, a larger draw than expectations of -1.0 million bbl.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of May 5 were -1.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -6.8% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -16.1% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil production in the week ended May 5 was unchanged w/w to 12.3 million bpd, only 0.8 million bpd (-6.1%) below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended May 5 fell -3 to 588 rigs, moderately below the 2-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted on December 2. U.S. active oil rigs have more than tripled from the 17-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 18, 2023

JULY 22 TO JULY 30, 2023

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Posted in Fuel News | Comments Off

Market Close: May 09 Up, Diesel UP $.0125

May 9th, 2023 by loren

Fueling Strategy: Please keep your tanks topped today, and tonight before 23:00 CST have tanks completely full of fuel, Wednesday prices will jump UP 6 cents~Be Safe

NMEX Crude $ 73.71 UP $.5500

NYMEX ULSD $2.3902 UP $.0125

NYMEX Gas $2.4799 UP $.0183

NEWS

June WTI crude oil closed up .55 (.006%), and June RBOB gasoline closed up 1.83 (.007%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices this morning are moderately lower. A stronger dollar today is weighing on energy prices along with weakness in stocks, which undercuts confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Also, signs of economic weakness in China are bearish for energy demand and crude prices.

Chinese trade data today showed China’s Apr imports fell -7.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.1% y/y, which bolsters concerns about China’s economic recovery and is bearish for energy demand and crude prices.

Crude has support on a reduction of Canadian crude output after wildfires in Alberta halted about 145,000 bpd of crude production from several Canadian crude producers.

Strength in the crude crack spread is bullish for oil prices as the crack spread rose to a 1-1/2 week high today, encouraging refiners to boost their crude purchases and refine the crude into gasoline and distillates.

In a bullish factor, Vortexa reported Monday that the amount of crude stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -16% w/w to 78.03 million bbl in the week ended May 5 to the lowest in 3 months.

Signs of stronger Chinese fuel demand are supportive for crude prices after China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported last Thursday that the number of domestic trips made over the five-day Golden Week holidays reached 274 million, up +19% from the pre-pandemic level in 2019 and almost +71% higher than last year.

Strength in energy demand in India, the world’s third largest crude consumer, is bullish for prices after India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas reported India’s Mar crude processing rose +3.1% y/y to 23 MMT. Also, India’s Mar crude imports rose +7.9% y/y to 20.5 MMT.

The ongoing halt of Iraqi crude exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan is tightening global oil supplies and is bullish for crude prices. The Turkish government said it wants to negotiate a $1.5 billion settlement that it has been ordered to pay before allowing Iraqi crude exports to resume through its pipeline. Oil exports of 400,000 bpd from the Turkish port of Ceyhan have been halted since March 25 after Iraq won an arbitration case from the International Chamber of Commerce that said Turkey violated a 1973 pipeline transit agreement by allowing crude from the Kurdish region to be exported without Iraqi government consent.

Crude oil prices are being undercut by signs that Russia has not delivered on its threat to cut crude output. Tanker-tracking data from Bloomberg shows Russia’s crude exports jumped above 4 million bpd in the week of April 28. Russia has halted the publication of crude and condensate production data in an attempt to disguise if it has actually cut crude output.

Crude prices surged on April 3 after OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of more than 1 million bpd starting May 1. Saudi Arabia said the cuts were a “precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.” OPEC Mar crude production fell by -80,000 bpd to 29.16 million bpd.

Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of April 28 were -1.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -6.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -12.5% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil production in the week ended April 28 rose +0.8% w/w to 12.3 million bpd, only 0.8 million bpd (-6.1%) below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended May 5 fell -3 to 588 rigs, moderately below the 2-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted on December 2. U.S. active oil rigs have more than tripled from the 17-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 18, 2023

JULY 22 TO JULY 30, 2023

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Posted in Fuel News | Comments Off

Market Close: May 08 UP, Diesel UP $.0630, Gas UP $.0826

May 8th, 2023 by loren

Fueling Strategy: Please fuel as needed today/tonight, Tuesday keep tanks topped and before 23:00 CST have tanks completely full of fuel~Be Safe

NMEX Crude $ 73.16 UP $1.8200

NYMEX ULSD $2.3777 UP $0.0630

NYMEX Gas $2.4616 UP $0.0826

NEWS

June WTI crude oil on Monday closed up +1.82 (+2.55%), and June RBOB gasoline closed up +8.26 (+3.47%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices Monday settled moderately higher. Crude prices rose Monday on carry over support from last Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. Apr payroll report that eased recession fears and raised expectations for stronger U.S. energy demand.

Also, crude rallied Monday on a reduction of Canadian crude output after wildfires in Alberta halted about 145,000 bpd of crude production from several Canadian crude producers.