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Fueling Strategy: Please keep your tanks topped today/tonight, Wednesday prices will jump UP 4.5 cents then Thursday look for an 8 cent drop~Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 77.07 DN $1.6900

NYMEX ULSD    $2.4511 DN $0.0799

NYMEX Gas      $2.5886 DN $0.0432

NEWS

June WTI crude oil this morning closed down -1.69 (-2.20%), and June RBOB gasoline closed down -4.32 (-1.99%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices this morning were sharply lower, with crude falling to a 3-week low.  Dollar strength today is pressuring energy prices.  Also, concerns that a slowdown in the global economy will curb energy demand are weighing on crude prices.  Crude prices extended their losses after U.S. Apr consumer confidence fell more than expected to a 9-month low.

Today’s U.S. economic news was mixed for crude prices.  On the bearish side, the Conference Board U.S. Apr consumer confidence index fell -2.7 to a 9-month low of 101.3, weaker than expectations of 104.0.  Also, the Apr Richmond Fed manufacturing survey fell -5 to -10, weaker than expectations of -8.  Conversely, Mar new home sales unexpectedly rose +9.6% m/m to a 1-year high of 683,000, stronger than expectations of a decline to 632,000.

Signs of stronger Chinese fuel demand are positive for crude prices.  China’s CCTV reported that about 9 million passenger trips would be made during the week-long Golden Week holidays in China that starts April 29, up +30% from 6.9 million trips in 2019 before the pandemic.

In a bullish factor, Vortexa reported Monday that the amount of crude stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -4% w/w to 98.69 million bbl in the week ended April 21.

The ongoing halt of Iraqi crude exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan is tightening global oil supplies and is bullish for crude prices.  The Turkish government said it wants to negotiate a $1.5 billion settlement that it has been ordered to pay before allowing Iraqi crude exports to resume through its pipeline.  Oil exports of 400,000 bpd from the Turkish port of Ceyhan have been halted since March 25 after Iraq won an arbitration case from the International Chamber of Commerce that said Turkey violated a 1973 pipeline transit agreement by allowing crude from the Kurdish region to be exported without Iraqi government consent.

Crude prices surged on April 3 after OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of more than 1 million bpd starting May 1.  Saudi Arabia said the cuts were a “precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.”  OPEC Mar crude production fell by -80,000 bpd to 29.16 million bpd.

Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of April 14 were +1.6% above the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -6.3% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -11.6% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ended April 14 was unchanged w/w at 12.3 million bpd, only 0.8 million bpd (-6.1%) below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended April 21 rose by +3 rigs to 591 rigs, moderately below the 2-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted on December 2.  U.S. active oil rigs have more than tripled from the 17-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

 

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

MAY 04 & 05, 2023

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 18, 2023

JULY  22 TO JULY 30, 2023

 

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

 

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Market Close: April 24 Up

Fueling Strategy: Please fuel as needed today/tonight ~Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 78.76 UP $.8900

NYMEX ULSD    $2.5310 UP $.0424

NYMEX Gas      $2.6318 UP $.0302

NEWS

June WTI crude oil on Monday closed up +0.89 (+1.14%), and June RBOB gasoline closed up +3.47 (+1.35%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices Monday recovered from early losses and closed moderately higher.  A fall in the dollar index to a 1-week low Monday was bullish for energy prices.  Also, signs of stronger Chinese fuel demand are positive for crude prices.  Crude oil Monday initially moved lower on concern a slowdown in the U.S. economy will curb energy demand after the Apr Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index unexpectedly fell to a 9-month low.

Signs of stronger Chinese fuel demand are positive for crude prices.  China’s CCTV reported that about 9 million passenger trips would be made during the week-long Golden Week holidays in China that starts April 29, up +30% from 6.9 million trips in 2019 before the pandemic.

Monday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. economic news signals a slowdown in the economy that is bearish for fuel demand.  The U.S. Apr Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index unexpectedly fell -7.7 to a 9-month low of -23.4, weaker than expectations of an increase to -12.0.

In a bullish factor, Vortexa reported Monday that the amount of crude stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -4% w/w to 98.69 million bbl in the week ended April 21.

The ongoing halt of Iraqi crude exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan is tightening global oil supplies and is bullish for crude prices.  The Turkish government said it wants to negotiate a $1.5 billion settlement that it has been ordered to pay before allowing Iraqi crude exports to resume through its pipeline.  Oil exports of 400,000 bpd from the Turkish port of Ceyhan have been halted since March 25 after Iraq won an arbitration case from the International Chamber of Commerce that said Turkey violated a 1973 pipeline transit agreement by allowing crude from the Kurdish region to be exported without Iraqi government consent.

Crude prices surged on April 3 after OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of more than 1 million bpd starting May 1.  Saudi Arabia said the cuts were a “precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.”  OPEC Mar crude production fell by -80,000 bpd to 29.16 million bpd.

Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that U.S. crude oil inventories as of April 14 were +1.6% above the seasonal 5-year average, gasoline inventories were -6.3% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -11.6% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ended April 14 was unchanged w/w at 12.3 million bpd, only 0.8 million bpd (-6.1%) below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended April 21 rose by +3 rigs to 591 rigs, moderately below the 2-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted on December 2.  U.S. active oil rigs have more than tripled from the 17-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

 

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

MAY 04 & 05, 2023

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 18, 2023

JULY  22 TO JULY 30, 2023

 

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

 

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please fill as needed today/tonight, Saturday prices will drop 6 cents~Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 77.87 UP $.5000

NYMEX ULSD    $2.4886 DN $.0063

NYMEX Gas      $2.6016 UP $.0152

NEWS

June WTI crude oil on Friday closed up +0.50, and June gasoline closed up +1.53.

Crude oil and gasoline prices Friday closed moderately higher.  Crude prices found support from Friday’s news that U.S. Apr manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded by the most in 6 months, a positive factor for energy demand.  Gains were limited after a gauge of Eurozone manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted by the most in nearly three years.

Friday’s global reports on manufacturing activity were mixed for crude prices.  On the bullish side, the U.S. Apr S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +1.2 to 50.4, stronger than expectations of a decline to 49.0 and its strongest pace of expansion in 6 months.  Also, the Japan Apr Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI rose +0.3 to a 6-month high of 49.5.  On the bearish side, the Eurozone Apr S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -1.8 to 45.5, weaker than expectations of an increase to 48.0 and the weakest report in nearly three years.

Weakness in the crude crack spread is bearish for oil prices.  Friday’s crack spread fell to a 2-month low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude to refine into gasoline and distillates.

Signs of weakness in global diesel demand signal an economic slowdown that is bearish for crude prices.  According to data tracked by China’s Ministry of Transport, the number of trucks running on Chinese highways fell -8% w/w in the week ended April 9.  Also, U.S. diesel demand is on track to contract -2% this year, according to S&P Global, which would be the biggest drop in U.S. diesel demand in 7 years, not counting the 2020 pandemic year.

In a bullish factor, Vortexa reported Monday that the amount of crude stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -17% w/w to 95.6 million bbl in the week ended April 14.

Strength in Chinese crude demand is bullish for prices.  China’s General Administration of Customs reported last Thursday that China’s Mar crude imports rose +16% m/m to 52.31 MMT (12.37 million bpd), the highest level since June 2020.  China’s crude imports year-to-date are up +6.7% y/y at 136.369 MMT.

The ongoing halt of Iraqi crude exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan is tightening global oil supplies and is bullish for crude prices.  The Turkish government said it wants to negotiate a $1.5 billion settlement that it has been ordered to pay before allowing Iraqi crude exports to resume through its pipeline.  Oil exports of 400,000 bpd from the Turkish port of Ceyhan have been halted since March 25 after Iraq won an arbitration case from the International Chamber of Commerce that said Turkey violated a 1973 pipeline transit agreement by allowing crude from the Kurdish region to be exported without Iraqi government consent.

Crude prices surged on April 3 after OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of more than 1 million bpd starting May 1.  Saudi Arabia said the cuts were a “precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.”  OPEC Mar crude production fell by -80,000 bpd to 29.16 million bpd.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of April 14 were +1.6% above the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -6.3% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -11.6% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ended April 14 was unchanged w/w at 12.3 million bpd, only 0.8 million bpd (-6.1%) below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended April 21 rose by +3 rigs to 591 rigs, moderately below the 2-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted on December 2.  U.S. active oil rigs have more than tripled from the 17-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity.

Have a Great Day,
Loren R Bailey, President
Office: 479-846-2761
Cell: 479-790-5581
SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE
MAY 04 & 05, 2023
JUNE 15 TO JUNE 18, 2023
JULY  22 TO JULY 30, 2023
Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

 

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

 

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

 

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

 
“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please fill as needed today/tonight, Friday prices will drop 4 cents~Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 77.29 DN $1.8700

NYMEX ULSD    $2.4949 DN $0.0628

NYMEX Gas      $2.5864 DN $0.0591

NEWS

Oil prices slid by about $2 a barrel to their lowest level since late March on Thursday, dragged lower by fears a possible recession could dent fuel demand and after a rise in U.S. gasoline inventories. Brent crude futures settled at $81.10 a barrel, shedding $2.02, or 2.4%. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $77.29 a barrel, losing $1.87, or 2.4%. Both benchmarks fell 2% on Wednesday and are at their lowest since just before a surprise OPEC+ production cut announcement. “At the end of the day, one of the big reasons why we’re sliding is fear of recession,” said Bob Yawger, executive director of energy futures at Mizuho.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week, indicating the labor market was slowing after a year of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and fanning concerns about a slowdown in fuel demand.

Gasoline inventories jumped unexpectedly last week by 1.3 million barrels to 223.5 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its report on Wednesday. Implied gasoline demand also fell 3.9% from year-ago levels to 8.5 million barrels a day. U.S. crude stockpiles, meanwhile, dropped by 4.6 million barrels, but analysts said that decline could be short-lived. “Although yesterday’s EIA crude stock draw of more than 4.5 million barrels looked supportive, all of the reduction was related to a spike in crude export activity that could easily be reversed in next week’s EIA,” said Jim Ritterbusch of consultancy Ritterbusch and Association.

Easing some concern about a rate hike-induced recession in the world’s largest oil consuming nation, economist polled by Reurters expected the Fed to end its tightening with a final 25 basis point rate rise in May. In Britain, persistent double-digit inflation has bolstered expectations of a further Bank of England rate hike.

On the supply side, oil loading from Russia’s western ports in April is likely to rise to the highest since 2019, trading and shipping sources said. Pakistan has placed its first order for discounted Russian crude under a new deal which could cover 100,000 barrels per day, the country’s petroleum minister said. Also weighing on crude prices, equity markets, which often move in tandem with oil prices, were down after disappointing results from Tesla and other companies.

 Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

 

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

MAY 04 & 05, 2023

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 18, 2023

JULY  22 TO JULY 30, 2023

 

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

 

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please fill as needed today/tonight, Thursday prices will drop 1.5 cents~Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 79.16 DN $1.7000

NYMEX ULSD    $2.5577 DN $0.0422

NYMEX Gas      $2.6455 DN $0.1054

NEWS

Oil fell as the latest economic report revealed the slowdown effects of monetary tightening and pushed demand concerns to the market’s forefront.

West Texas Intermediate fell the most in a month to slip below $80 after being pressured by a rising dollar and dampened risk appetite throughout the session. An economic survey from the Federal Reserve late Wednesday showed the US economy stalled in recent weeks with hiring and inflation slowing and access to credit narrowing.

While the report likely reinforces the chances that the Federal Reserve will ease its policy of interest rate hikes, the demand implications are unsettling the crude market. A report showing that the US drew from the nation’s oil reserves failed to quell worries.

“The market is laser-focused on product demand and this report will not ease concerns that demand is fragile,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, referring to Energy Information Administration data. “These numbers were not bad, but they were not good enough to keep traders sleeping well at night.”

Nationwide inventories declined 4.6 million barrels last week. Total demand rose “but not really where it matters,” said Emily Ashford, Executive Director of Energy Research, noting that gasoline demand fell and diesel consumption was effectively flat.

Despite the pullback, crude is still up from a 15-month low reached in mid-March following turmoil in the banking sector. A surprise announcement by OPEC+ on production cuts and curbed Iraqi flows pushed oil back into the $80-range. The producers’ group is looking to force consumers to take oil out of storage and shore up prices amid tentative demand growth.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

 

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

MAY 04 & 05, 2023

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 18, 2023

JULY  22 TO JULY 30, 2023

 

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

 

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please partial fill only today/tonight, Wednesday prices will drop 2.5 cents~Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 80.86 UP $.0300

NYMEX ULSD    $2.5999 DN $.0148

NYMEX Gas      $2.7509 DN $.0231

NEWS

The final wave of the Permian Basin oil boom is expected to add the equivalent of Iran’s total output to global production. That growth, however, will look more like a trickle than a gusher — taking years to ramp up and underscoring OPEC+’s grip on the market for now.

America’s largest oil basin, covering swaths of West Texas and southeast New Mexico, will expand output by 40% until hitting its peak of 7.86 million barrels a day in 2030, according to a Bloomberg survey of four major forecasters. While that would be bigger than all OPEC nations except for Saudi Arabia, the outlook comes with a lot of caveats.

First, there’s the slow pace of expansion: There’s no huge increase expected this year or next, so the Permian won’t do much to ease the world’s current problems with energy-driven inflation. Second, producers, who enjoyed record profits last year, have little incentive to quickly pump their remaining acreage because investors have consistently rewarded discipline. And third, shortages of everything from labor to steel pipes and drilling equipment will also restrain growth if and when companies decide to boost supplies. Lastly, while President Joe Biden has recently implored the industry to keep pushing output, his agenda also includes the fight against climate change, which means the political picture could easily swing against shale.

Public companies are making the conscious choice to limit capital spending for new wells in favor of boosting returns to shareholders, said Raoul LeBlanc, vice president for North American upstream oil and gas at S&P Global. Accelerating output despite a shortage of labor and equipment would be difficult and erode profitability, he said. “The go-go days of shale growth turned a 4 million barrel-a-day system into a 12 million barrel a day system, but it lost a lot of money,” he said. “Now, they’re looking for payoff.”

Slow growth in the Permian is likely to create problems for consumers. A surprise oil-production cut from OPEC+ earlier this month jolted global economies and effectively set a floor for crude prices. It also leaves the century-old field, famous for its pancaked layers of oil-soaked rock, with a new identity after leading the world in crude growth.  “The Permian’s not dead,” said Chet Sharma, a senior associate at Enverus. “It’s kind of entering the next phase of its growth, which is much smaller compared to the shale boom era.”

The surveyed forecasters — S&P Global, Rystad Energy, Wood Mackenzie and Enverus — on average expect the Permian to add 2.4 million barrels of daily output by 2030 from 2022 levels. That’s nearly equivalent to the total amount of production from Iran, the fifth-biggest member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.

Once the Permian is past its 2030 peak, the basin’s decline will be slow. becoming a reliable pillar of global oil markets for decades. In 2035, Rystad and S&P Global see Permian production 1 million barrels a day higher than this year’s output. With this growth, US government forecasts show American production hovering between 12.3 million and 13.3 million barrels a day — higher than Saudi Arabia’s record annual output in 2022 — all the way out to 2050.

Other US oil regions like the Eagle Ford in south Texas and the Gulf of Mexico are stable or declining. So it’s up to the Permian to drive overall US production.

“We have not seen yet peak production from Permian,” Vicki Hollub, CEO for Occidental Petroleum Corp. said April 12 during Columbia University’s Global Energy Summit in New York. “While other basins in the US may be plateauing, the Permian will continue to increase and will be able to overtime offset the declines from the other basins,” she said.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

 

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

MAY 04 & 05, 2023

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 18, 2023

JULY  22 TO JULY 30, 2023

 

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

 

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please fuel as needed today/tonight ~Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 80.83 DN $1.6900

NYMEX ULSD    $2.6147 DN $0.0245

NYMEX Gas      $2.7740 DN $0.0619

NEWS
Oil prices turned lower on Monday as the U.S. dollar strengthened and as investors mulled over a possible May interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which could dampen economic recovery hopes. Brent crude futures fell $1.55, or 1.8%, to settle at $84.76 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped $1.69, or 2.1%, at $80.83 a barrel. Both contracts notched their fourth weekly gain in a row last week, the longest such streak since mid-2022.
The U.S. dollar has been strengthening alongside interest rate hikes, making dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. The dollar index gained around 0.6% on Monday. “The dollar is a little bit stronger, and that seems to be putting a little bit of pressure on oil here,” Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said. Traders are betting the Fed will raise its lending rate in May by another quarter of a percentage point and have pushed out to late this year expectations of a rate cut, as typically occurs in a slowdown.
Meanwhile, the release of China’s first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data at 0200 GMT on Tuesday is expected to be positive for commodity prices, with the International energy Agency (IEA) forecasting it will account for most of 2023 demand growth. However, the IEA also warned in its monthly report that output cuts announced by OPEC+ producers risked exacerbating an oil supply deficit expected in the second half of this year and could hurt consumers and a global economic recovery. The Group of Seven coalition will keep a $60 per barrel price cap on seaborne Russian oil, a coalition official said, despite rising global crude prices and calls by some countries for a lower price cap to restrict Moscow’s revenues.
In Iraq, the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have ironed out technical issues essential to resuming northern oil exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan to international markets, four sources told Reuters on Monday. Turkey halted Iraq’s 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of northern exports on March 25 after an arbitration ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), which ordered Turkey to pay Baghdad damages of $1.5 billion for the KRG’s unauthorized exports between 2014 and 2018. In Saudi Arabia, crude oil exports in February fell to 7.455 million bpd from 7.658 million bpd in January, official data showed on Monday.
U.S. shale crude oil production in the seven biggest shale basins is expected to rise in May by 49,000 bpd to 9.33 million bpd, the highest on record, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Monday
Have a Great Day,
Loren R Bailey, President
Office: 479-846-2761
Cell: 479-790-5581
SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE
MAY 04 & 05, 2023
JUNE 15 TO JUNE 18, 2023
JULY  22 TO JULY 30, 2023
Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

 

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

 

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

 

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

 
“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please keep your tanks topped tonight, Saturday prices will drop 3 cents then look for Sunday’s prices to drop 3 to 3.5 cents ~Be Safe

 

NMEX Crude     $ 82.52 UP $.3600

NYMEX ULSD    $2.6392 DN $.0336

NYMEX Gas      $2.8359 UP $.0042

NEWS

Oil rose for the fourth straight week, supported by signs of a tightening global market that have the International Energy Agency warning of higher prices ahead.

West Texas Intermediate settled above $82 a barrel, posting its longest run of weekly advances since June. Crude is hovering near five-month highs after OPEC+ surprised the market with plans to cut more than 1 million barrels of daily output. Declining US stockpiles, weaker flows from Russia and interruptions to pipeline supplies from Iraqi Kurdistan have added to the gains.

Markets are digesting a week of mixed projections for crude supply and demand. The latest OPEC+ cuts threaten to boost oil prices for consumers already facing high inflation, the IEA said in its monthly outlook on Friday. The cartel had forecast a day earlier that markets would be deeply under supplied. In contrast, the US Energy Information Administration projected supplies surpassing demand both in 2023 and 2024.

Demand from the world’s largest crude importer is supporting prices as well. Recent data show that China imported the most oil in three years last month, underpinned by record Russian flows. On Friday, People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang said the nation’s economy is expected to grow about 5% this year.

Key technical measures are signaling a tighter market, too. WTI’s prompt spread — the difference between its two nearest contracts —  was at 9 cents a barrel in backwardation. The bullish pattern is a stark reversal from when it was trading 16 cents in contango a month ago. 

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

 

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

MAY 04 & 05, 2023

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 18, 2023

JULY  22 TO JULY 30, 2023

 

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

 

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please keep your tanks topped today/tonight while prices are down 1.5 cents, Friday prices will jump UP 3.5 cents~Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 82.16 DN $1.1000

NYMEX ULSD    $2.6728 DN $0.0303

NYMEX Gas      $2.8317 DN $0.0410

NEWS

Oil retreated after testing a key technical level, but still held near a five-month high as shrinking US inventories and surging Chinese imports added to signs of a tightening global market.

Fundamentals are supporting crude’s recent rally as inventories declined again last week at the key American storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, while weaker Russian oil exports and interrupted flows from Iraqi Kurdistan are reining in supplies.

The US benchmark approached its 200-day moving average after two days of solid gains, but prices failed to break through the technical level on Thursday. Crossing that mark would be a bullish indicator with the potential to spur additional buying. If the 200-day moving average holds as resistance, prices could retreat to around $76 a barrel, a level last seen before OPEC+ surprise output cuts, TACenergy said in a note.

A slew of reports projecting the market’s supply-and-demand projections released this week are also being closely watched. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ report forecast that markets will be deeply undersupplied this year. In contrast, the US Energy Information Administration projected supplies surpassing demand both in 2023 and 2024. The week’s third major report — from the International Energy Agency — will be published Friday. 

Crude has rebounded more than 20% since hitting a 15-month low in March. In the latest sign that China’s demand is increasing, the largest crude importer shipped in the most oil in almost three years in March. Last week’s surprise production cut announcement from OPEC+ lifted prices the most in a year, punishing speculators that had bet oil prices would fall.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

 

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

MAY 04 & 05, 2023

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 18, 2023

JULY  22 TO JULY 30, 2023

 

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

 

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

 

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Market Close: April 12 Up

Fueling Strategy: Please partial fill only today/tonight, Thursday prices will drop 1.5 cents~Be Safe

NMEX Crude     $ 83.26 UP $1.7300

NYMEX ULSD    $2.7031 UP $0.0349

NYMEX Gas      $2.8727 UP $0.0075

NEWS

May WTI crude oil on Wednesday closed up +1.73 (+2.12%), and May RBOB gasoline (closed up +0.75 (+0.26%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices Wednesday moved higher, with crude climbing to a 4-1/2 month nearest-futures high and gasoline climbing to a 5-1/2 month high.  A weaker dollar  Wednesday was bullish for energy prices.  Also, tightness in global oil supplies is supporting crude prices after OPEC+ announced a surprise cut in oil production last Monday and as 400,000 bpd of Iraqi crude oil exports remain halted.

The ongoing halt of Iraqi crude exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan is tightening global oil supplies and is bullish for crude prices.  The Turkish government said it wants to negotiate a $1.5 billion settlement that it has been ordered to pay before allowing Iraqi crude exports to resume through its pipeline.  Oil exports of 400,000 bpd from the Turkish port of Ceyhan have been halted since March 25 after Iraq won an arbitration case from the International Chamber of Commerce that said Turkey violated a 1973 pipeline transit agreement by allowing crude from the Kurdish region to be exported without Iraqi government consent.

Crude prices surged last Monday after OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of more than 1 million bpd starting May 1.  Saudi Arabia said the cuts were a “precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.”  OPEC Mar crude production fell by -80,000 bpd to 29.16 million bpd.

The outlook for stronger Chinese crude oil demand is bullish for prices.  China National Petroleum Corp, the country’s largest refiner, predicts that oil demand in China may expand this year by +5.1% to 756 MMT as the country emerges from the pandemic.  However, oil demand in China has recently been weak.  China car sales in Jan-Feb fell -9.4% y/y, and international flights from China were at only 22% of pre-pandemic levels as of March 16.

In a bearish factor, Vortexa reported Monday that the amount of crude stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +6.8% w/w to 112.83 million bbl in the week ended April 7.

Rising crude demand in India is bullish for oil prices.  India’s oil ministry reported on March 22 that India Feb crude oil imports rose +8.5% y/y to 19.1 MMT, the most in seven months.

Wednesday’s weekly EIA inventory report was mixed for energy prices.  On the bullish side, EIA distillate stockpiles fell -606,000 bbl, a larger draw than expectations of -200,000.  Also, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, fell -409,000 bbl to a 3-month low.  On the bearish side, EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose +597,000 bbl versus expectations of a -1.05 million bbl draw.  Also, EIA gasoline supplies fell -330,000 bbl, a smaller draw than expectations of -1.9 million bbl.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of April 7 were +2.8% above the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -6.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -11.6% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ended April 7 rose +0.8% w/w to 12.3 million bpd, only 0.8 million bpd (-6.1%) below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Thursday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended April 7 fell by -2 rigs to 590 rigs, moderately below the 2-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted on December 2.  U.S. active oil rigs have more than tripled from the 17-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity.

 

 Have a Great Day,

 Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

 

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

MAY 04 & 05, 2023

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 18, 2023

JULY  22 TO JULY 30, 2023

 

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

 

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

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