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Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED” today/tonight, Wednesday prices will JUMP UP 6.5 cents ~Be Safe

 

NMEX Crude      $ 88.84 UP $1.5500

NYMEX ULSD     $3.3283 DN $0.0339

NYMEX Gas       $2.7279 UP $0.0092

NEWS

NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) – Oil prices jumped about 2% to a near 10-month high on Tuesday on a tighter supply outlook and OPEC optimism over the resilience of energy demand in major economies. Brent futures rose $1.42 or 1.6%, to settle at $92.06 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.55, or 1.8%, to settle at $88.84. Both benchmarks remained technically overbought for an eighth straight day, and closed at their highest levels since November 2022.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stuck to its forecasts for robust growth in global oil demand in 2023 and 2024, citing signs that major economies are stronger than expected. OPEC’s monthly report forecast world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024. “Crude prices are rallying after the OPEC monthly report showed the oil market is going to be a lot tighter than initially thought,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at data and analytics firm OANDA, said in a note.

Keeping supplies tight, Saudi Arabia and Russia last week extended voluntary supply cuts of a combined 1.3 million bpd to year end. OPEC, Russia and allied producers are known as OPEC+. OPEC member Libya shut four of its eastern oil export terminals due to a deadly storm, while OPEC+ member Kazakhstan reduced daily oil output for maintenance. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected global oil output would rise from 99.9 million bpd in 2022 to 101.2 million bpd in 2023 and 102.9 million bpd in 2024, while world demand will rise from 99.2 million bpd in 2022 to 101.0 million bpd in 2023 and 102.3 million bpd in 2024.

That compares with a record 100.5 million bpd of global oil production in 2018 and a record 100.8 million bpd of world liquids consumption in 2019, according to the EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook. EIA said it expects global oil inventories to decline by almost a half million bpd in the second half of 2023, causing oil prices to rise with Brent averaging $93 per barrel in the fourth quarter. In the U.S., EIA projected crude output would rise from 11.9 million bpd in 2022 to 12.8 million bpd in 2023 and 13.2 million bpd in 2024, while liquids consumption would rise from 20.0 million bpd in 2022 to 20.1 million bpd in 2023 and 20.3 million bpd in 2024. That compares with a record 12.3 million bpd of U.S. crude production in 2019 and a record 20.8 million bpd of liquids consumption in 2005.

Looking ahead, oil traders are waiting for supply-demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday, and U.S. oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, on Tuesday and from EIA on Wednesday. Analysts polled by Reuters forecast a draw of about 1.9 million barrels of crude from U.S. stockpiles during the week ended Sept. 8. That would be the fifth straight weekly draw, the longest such streak since January 2022.

INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION

U.S. consumer price index data for August on Wednesday should hint at the outlook for interest rates. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged at a policy meeting next week, though views are split over whether it will raise rates in November. The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday. Interest rate hikes can slow economic growth and reduce oil demand.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

 

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

SEP 14th  & 15th All Day

SEP 22 AFTER 14:00

 

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

 

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

 

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED” today/tonight, Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 87.29 DN $.2200

NYMEX ULSD     $3.3622 UP $.0631

NYMEX Gas       $2.7187 UP $.0650

NEWS

October WTI crude oil on Monday closed down -0.22 (-0.25%), and Oct RBOB gasoline closed up +6.50 (+2.45%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices Monday settled mixed, with gasoline posting a 2-week high.  Crude fell back from a 9-3/4 month high Monday on global energy demand concerns after the European Commission cut its 2023 Eurozone GDP forecast to +0.8% from +1.1%.

On the bullish side, a weaker dollar Monday supported energy prices.  Also, crude has carryover support from last Tuesday when Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they would extend their respective crude production cuts until the end of the year.

A supportive factor for crude was news of more robust credit demand in China, the world’s second-largest crude consumer, which may lead to stronger economic growth and energy demand.  China’s new yuan loans in August were 1.36 trillion yuan, above expectations of +1.25 trillion yuan.  Also, August aggregate financing, the broadest measure of credit growth, rose +3.12 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of +2.69 trillion yuan.

Crude prices found support after Saudi Arabia last Tuesday said it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through December.  The move will hold Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Also, last Tuesday, Russia announced it would maintain its 300,000 bpd cut in crude production through December.

Strength in the crude crack spread is bullish for oil prices as the crack spread Monday climbed to a nearly 2-week high.  The higher crack spread encourages refiners to boost their crude purchases and refine the crude into gasoline and distillates.

An increase in Iranian crude exports is boosting global supplies and is bearish for oil prices.  According to TankerTrackers.com, Iranian crude exports rose to a 5-year high of 2.2 million bpd during the first 20 days of August, with most of the crude going to China.

A negative factor for crude prices is the progress made in Iran-U.S. relations that could lead to higher crude exports from Iran after Iran said the recent deal with the U.S. on the release of prisoners and frozen Iranian funds could lead to diplomacy in other areas, including its nuclear program.  An agreement on Iran’s nuclear program could eventually prompt the U.S. and its allies to remove sanctions on Iranian crude exports, boosting global crude supplies.

A decline in crude demand in India, the world’s third-biggest crude consumer, is bearish for oil prices.  India’s July crude oil imports fell -6.3% y/y to 19.3 MMT, the lowest in 8 months.

OPEC crude production in August was little changed, rising +40,000 bpd to 27.82 million bpd, recovering slightly from July’s  1-3/4 year low of 27.78 million bpd.

A bullish factor for crude oil is a decline in Russian crude shipments.  Vessel-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed Russian crude oil shipments in August dropped to 2.28 million bpd, down -9% m/m and the lowest daily average in eleven months.

A decline in crude in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -5.8% w/w to 81.02 million bbl as of Sep 8, the lowest in 9 months.

Last Thursday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Sep 1 were -4.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -5.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -14.4% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ended Sep 1 was unchanged w/w at 12.8 million bpd, the most in over three years.  U.S. crude oil production is modestly below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Sep 8 rose +1 to 513 rigs, just above the previous week’s 17-month low of 512 rigs.  That is well below the 3-1/4 year high of 627 rigs posted on Dec 2, 2022.  Still, U.S. active oil rigs are more than triple the 18-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity from pandemic lows.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

 

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

SEP 14th  & 15th All Day

SEP 22 AFTER 14:00

 

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

 

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

 

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED” tonight, Saturday prices will JUMP UP 2 cents ~Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 87.51 UP $.6400

NYMEX ULSD     $3.2991 UP $.0868

NYMEX Gas       $2.6537 UP $.0307

NEWS

A decline in crude in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -0.9% w/w to 84.97 million bbl as of Sep 1, the lowest in 7 months.

Thursday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Sep 1 were -4.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -5.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -14.4% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ended Sep 1 was unchanged w/w at 12.8 million bpd, the most in over three years.  U.S. crude oil production is modestly below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Sep 8 rose +1 to 513 rigs, just above the previous week’s 17-month low of 512 rigs.  That is well below the 3-1/4 year high of 627 rigs posted on Dec 2, 2022.  Still, U.S. active oil rigs are more than triple the 18-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity from pandemic lows.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

 

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

SEP 08 AFTER 15:00

SEP 14 AFTER 14:00

SEP 22 AFTER 14:00

 

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

 

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

 

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY” tonight, Friday prices will drop 3 cents the Saturday prices will go back UP 2 cents ~Be Safe

 

NMEX Crude      $ 86.87 DN $.6700

NYMEX ULSD     $3.2123 UP $.0196

NYMEX Gas       $2.6230 UP $.0216

NEWS

October WTI crude oil on Thursday closed down -0.67 (-0.77%), and Oct RBOB gasoline  closed up +2.16 (+0.83%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices Thursday settled mixed, with gasoline posting a 1-1/2 week high.  Crude prices gave up an early advance and moved lower on dollar strength and energy demand concerns.  The dollar index Thursday rallied to a 5-3/4 month high, and global economic news was mostly weaker than expected, signaling reduced energy demand.

Crude oil prices had carryover support from Tuesday when Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they will extend their respective crude production cuts until the end of the year.  Crude prices also have support from Thursday’s bullish EIA report that showed U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected to a 9-month low.

Crude prices found support after Saudi Arabia on Tuesday said it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through December.  The move will hold Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Also, Russia on Tuesday announced it would also maintain its 300,000 bpd cut in crude production through December.

Thursday’s global economic news was mixed for energy demand and crude prices.  On the bearish side, Eurozone Q2 GDP was revised lower to +0.1% q/q and +0.5% y/y from the previously reported +0.3% q/q and +0.6% y/y.  Also, German July industrial production fell -0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.4% y/y.  On the positive side, U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell -13,000 to a 7-month low of 216,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 233,000.

An increase in Iranian crude exports is boosting global supplies and is bearish for oil prices.  According to TankerTrackers.com, Iranian crude exports rose to a 5-year high of 2.2 million bpd during the first 20 days of August, with most of the crude going to China.

A negative factor for crude prices is the progress made in Iran-U.S. relations that could lead to higher crude exports from Iran after Iran said the recent deal with the U.S. on the release of prisoners and frozen Iranian funds could lead to diplomacy in other areas, including its nuclear program.  An agreement on Iran’s nuclear program could eventually prompt the U.S. and its allies to remove sanctions on Iranian crude exports, boosting global crude supplies.

A decline in crude demand in India, the world’s third-biggest crude consumer, is bearish for oil prices.  India’s July crude oil imports fell -6.3% y/y to 19.3 MMT, the lowest in 8 months.

OPEC crude production in August was little changed, rising +40,000 bpd to 27.82 million bpd, recovering slightly from July’s  1-3/4 year low of 27.78 million bpd.

A bullish factor for crude oil is a decline in Russian crude shipments.  Vessel-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed Russian crude oil shipments in the four weeks to Aug 18 dropped to 2.29 million bpd, the lowest daily average in ten months.

A decline in crude in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -0.9% w/w to 84.97 million bbl as of Sep 1, the lowest in 7 months.

Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bullish for crude prices.  EIA crude inventories fell -6.31 million bbl to a 9-month low, a bigger draw than expectations of -2.0 million bbl.  Also, EIA gasoline supplies fell -2.67 million bbl to a 10-month low, a larger draw than expectations of -1.0 million bbl.  In addition, crude stockpiles at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, fell -1.75 million bbl to an 8-month low.

Thursday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Sep 1 were -4.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -5.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -14.4% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ended Sep 1 was unchanged w/w at 12.8 million bpd, the most in over three years.  U.S. crude oil production is modestly below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Sep 1 were unchanged at a 17-month low of 512 rigs.  That is well below the 3-1/4 year high of 627 rigs posted on Dec 2, 2022.  Still, U.S. active oil rigs are more than triple the 18-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity from pandemic lows.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

 

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

SEP 08 AFTER 15:00

SEP 14 AFTER 14:00

SEP 22 AFTER 14:00

 

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

 

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

 

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED” tonight, Thursday prices will JUMP UP 11.5 cents ~Be Safe

 

NMEX Crude      $ 87.54 UP $.8500

NYMEX ULSD     $3.1927 DN $.0269

NYMEX Gas       $2.6014 UP $.0204

NEWS

Oil prices rose a dollar a barrel on Tuesday to their highest since November, after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their voluntary supply cuts to the end of the year, worrying investors about potential shortages during peak winter demand.

Brent crude futures rose by $1.04, or 1.2%, to settle at $90.04 a barrel, closing above the $90 mark for the first time since November 16, 2022. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures gained $.85, or 1.0%, to settle at $87.54 a barrel, also a 10-month high.

Investors had expected Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend voluntary cuts into October, but the three-month extension was unexpected. “This is a clear indication that oil prices trump volume (for Saudi Arabia),” said Jorge Leon, senior vice president at Rystad Energy. “These bullish moves significantly tighten the global oil market and can only result in one thing: higher oil prices worldwide,” Leon added. Both Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would review the supply cuts monthly, and could modify them depending on market conditions. “With the production cut extended, we anticipate a market deficit of more than 1.5 million barrels per day in 4Q23,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo wrote in a note to clients. UBS now expects Brent crude to rise to $95 a barrel by year-end.

Reflecting concerns about the short-term market supply, front month Brent and WTI contracts were also trading at their steepest premium since November to later-dated prices. This structure, called backwardation, indicates tightening supply for prompt deliveries. Also supporting oil prices on Tuesday, Goldman Sachs said it now sees the probability of a U.S. recession starting in the next 12 months at 15%, down from an earlier forecast of 20%. Along with the Saudi supply cuts, which began in July, prospects of the U.S. economy avoiding a hard recession have helped lift oil demand and prices in recent months.

Both Brent and WTI futures have gained more than 20% since the end of June.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

 

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

SEP 08 AFTER 15:00

SEP 14 AFTER 14:00

SEP 22 AFTER 14:00

 

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

 

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

 

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED” today/tonight, Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 86.69 UP $1.1400

NYMEX ULSD     $3.2196 UP $0.1146

NYMEX Gas       $2.5810 DN $0.0102

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

 

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

SEP 05 AFTER 14:00

SEP 08 AFTER 15:00

SEP 14 AFTER 14:00

SEP 22 AFTER 14:00

 

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

 

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

 

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

October WTI crude oil this morning is up +2.18 (+2.55%), and Oct RBOB gasoline is up +5.96 (+2.33%).

 

Crude oil prices this morning are rallying, with crude climbing to a 9-1/2 month high and gasoline posting a 1-week high.  The main bullish factor today was the action by Saudi Arabia and Russia to announce they will extend their crude production cuts until the end of the year.   A bearish factor for energy prices is today’s rally in the dollar index to a 5-1/2 month high.

Crude prices rallied today after Saudi Arabia said it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through December.  The move will hold Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Crude prices extended their gains today after Russia announced it would also maintain its 300,000 bpd cut in crude production through December.

Global economic news today shows a weakness in growth that is bearish for energy demand and crude prices.  U.S. July factory orders fell -2.1% m/m, the biggest decline in 8 months.   Also, the China Aug Caixin services PMI fell -2.3 to an 8-month low of  51.8, weaker than expectations of 53.5.  In addition, the Eurozone Aug S&P composite PMI was revised downward by -0.3 to 46.7 from the previously reported 47.0, the steepest pace of contraction in 2-3/4 years.

An increase in Iranian crude exports is boosting global supplies and is bearish for oil prices.  According to TankerTrackers.com, Iranian crude exports rose to a 5-year high of 2.2 million bpd during the first 20 days of August, with most of the crude going to China.

A negative factor for crude prices is the progress made in Iran-U.S. relations that could lead to higher crude exports from Iran after Iran said the recent deal with the U.S. on the release of prisoners and frozen Iranian funds could lead to diplomacy in other areas, including its nuclear program.  An agreement on Iran’s nuclear program could eventually prompt the U.S. and its allies to remove sanctions on Iranian crude exports, boosting global crude supplies.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

 

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

SEP 05 AFTER 14:00

SEP 08 AFTER 15:00

SEP 14 AFTER 14:00

SEP 22 AFTER 14:00

 

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

 

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

 

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED” today/tonight, Saturday prices will jump back UP 4 cents~Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 85.55 UP $1.9200

NYMEX ULSD     $3.1050 DN $0.0081

NYMEX Gas       $2.5912 UP $0.0253

Have a Great Day,
Loren R Bailey, President
Office: 479-846-2761
Cell: 479-790-5581
SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE
SEP 05 AFTER 14:00
SEP 08 AFTER 15:00
SEP 14 AFTER 14:00
SEP 22 AFTER 14:00
Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

 

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

 

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

 

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

 
“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams
Tropical Storm Idalia is now making its way off the coast of South Carolina and into the Atlantic. At this time, most of our locations in the impacted areas are open and fueling. Our teams are working to restore service to impacted stores as quickly and safely as possible to help professional drivers and emergency crews mobilize for recovery and relief efforts.

See below for an update on our operations.

Store Operations:

The following locations are now open:

  • Pilot #500 – Jasper, FL
  • Flying J #631 – Lake Park, GA
  • Pilot Dealer #1058 – Waldo, FL
  • Pilot #4576 – St. George, SC
  • One9 Dealer #1403 – Waldo, FL

​​​​​​​

The following locations remain temporarily closed:
  • Pilot #575 – St. Mary’s, GA
  • Pilot #4561 – Valdosta, GA

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

All other stores in the region are currently open and will remain open as long as it is safe to operate.
Supply Conditions:

Currently, there are no supply concerns in the impacted regions. Our logistics and transportation teams worked hard to prepare for the storm and build up an adequate supply in the region.

Important Information:

Pilot Flying J:

National:

Florida:

Georgia:

South Carolina:

North Carolina:​​​​​​​

Fueling Strategy: Please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY” today/tonight, Friday prices will drop 11 cents, Saturday diesel will jump back UP 4 cents~Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 83.63 UP $2.0000

NYMEX ULSD     $3.1426 UP $0.0464

NYMEX Gas       $2.7664 DN $0.0428

NEWS

October WTI crude oil on Thursday closed +2.00 (+2.45%), and Oct RBOB gasoline closed down -0.12 (-0.05%).

Crude oil prices rallied on a report that Russia has agreed with OPEC+ on further output restrictions.  Bloomberg News reported that Russia will announce next week that it has agreed with OPEC+ on further cuts in its oil exports into October.  Russia has already announced a cut of 300,000 bpd of output cuts for September.

Crude oil prices have continued support from Wednesday’s news that weekly EIA crude inventories fell more than expected to an 8-month low.

An increase in Iranian crude exports is boosting global supplies and is bearish for oil prices.  According to TankerTrackers.com, Iranian crude exports rose to a 5-year high of 2.2 million bpd during the first 20 days of August, with most of the crude going to China.

A negative factor for crude prices is the progress made in Iran-U.S. relations that could lead to higher crude exports from Iran after Iran said the recent deal with the U.S. on the release of prisoners and frozen Iranian funds could lead to diplomacy in other areas, including its nuclear program.  An agreement on Iran’s nuclear program could eventually prompt the U.S. and its allies to remove sanctions on Iranian crude exports, boosting global crude supplies.

In a bearish factor, China’s July crude imports fell -19% m/m to 10.33 million bpd, the smallest volume in 6 months.  Also, Vortexa said China’s onshore crude inventories have expanded to a record 1.02 billion bbl as of July 27.

A decline in crude demand in India, the world’s third-biggest crude consumer, is bearish for oil prices.  India’s July crude oil imports fell -6.3% y/y to 19.3 MMT, the lowest in 8 months.

Crude prices have carryover support from earlier this month when Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would extend their crude production cuts.  Saudi Arabia said it will extend its 1 million bpd cut in crude production into September and said its crude output may “be extended, or extended and deepened.”  The cut in Saudi production keeps its crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in several years.  Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said Russia “will continue to voluntarily reduce its oil supply in September by 300,000 bpd” to balance the market.  Russia cut its crude output by 500,000 bpd in August.  OPEC crude production in July fell -900,000 bpd to a 1-3/4 year low of 27.79 million bpd.

A bullish factor for crude oil is a decline in Russian crude shipments.  Vessel-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed Russian crude oil shipments in the four weeks to Aug 18 dropped to 2.29 million bpd, the lowest daily average in ten months.

A decline in crude in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -23% w/w to 82.34 million bbl as of Aug 25.

Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was mixed for crude.  On the negative side, EIA gasoline supplies fell -214,000 bbl, a smaller draw than expectations of -1.25 million bbl.  Also, EIA distillate stockpiles unexpectedly rose +1.2 million bbl versus expectations of a -1.0 million bbl draw.  On the positive side, EIA crude inventories fell -10.58 million bbl to an 8-month low, a bigger draw than expectations of -2.19 million bbl.  Also, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, fell -1.5 million bbl to a 7-1/2 month low.

Wednesday’s weekly EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Aug 25 were -3.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -5.0% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -15.2% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ended Aug 25 was unchanged w/w at 12.8 million bpd, the most in over three years.  U.S. crude oil production is modestly below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Aug 25 fell by -8 to a 17-month low of 512 rigs.  That is well below the 3-1/4 year high of 627 rigs posted on Dec 2, 2022.  Still, U.S. active oil rigs are more than triple the 18-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity from pandemic lows.

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