Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED TODAY/TONIGHT”,Prices are DOWN 1.25 Cents Today, Sunday prices will go DOWN another 3 Cents~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 67.20 DN $1.1000
NYMEX ULSD $2.1326 DN $0.0231
NYMEX Gas $1.9062 DN $0.0263
NEWSJ
January WTI crude oil closed down -1.10 and January RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0263.
Crude oil and gasoline prices today are moderately lower, with crude posting a 2-1/2 week low and gasoline posting a 2-month low. A stronger dollar today is bearish for energy prices. Crude prices are also under pressure from a report from Macquarie Group that projects a “heavy surplus” next year of more than 1 million bpd as non-OPEC supply growth makes up for any supply restraints from OPEC+. Limiting losses in crude was better-than-expected US economic reports on Nov payrolls and Dec consumer sentiment, supportive factors for energy demand.
Today’s global economic news was mixed for crude prices. On the negative side, the US Nov unemployment rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to 4.2%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 4.1%. Also, German Oct industrial production unexpectedly fell -1.0% m/m, weaker than expectations of +1.0% m/m. Conversely, US Nov nonfarm payrolls rose +227,000 stronger than expectations of +220,000. Also, the University of Michigan US Dec consumer sentiment index rose +2.2 to an 8-month high of 74.0, stronger than expectations of 73.2.
Fueling Strategy: Please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY TODAY/TONIGHT OR BETTER YET WAIT TO FUEL UNTIL FRIDAY AM”,Prices are UP 4 Cents Today, Friday prices will go DOWN 5 Cents ~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 68.54 DN $1.4000
NYMEX ULSD $2.1674 DN $0.0503
NYMEX Gas $1.9391 DN $0.0233
NEWS
January WTI crude oil Wednesday closed down -1.40, and January RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0233.
Crude oil and gasoline prices Wednesday gave up an early advance and settled moderately lower. Weaker than expected US economic news Wednesday on Nov ADP employment and Nov ISM services is negative for energy demand and weighed on crude prices. Wednesday’s rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high supported crude as it shows confidence in the economic outlook supporting energy demand and crude prices. Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was mixed for crude and products after crude inventories fell more than expected, but gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly rose.
Wednesday’s US economic news was weaker than expected and bearish for crude prices. The Nov ADP employment change rose +146,000, slightly weaker than expectations of +150,000. Also, the Nov ISM services index fell -3.9 to 52.1, weaker than expectations of 55.3.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -2.5% w/w to 68.74 million bbl in the week ended November 29.
Crude has support from expectations that OPEC+ will delay an expected +180,000 bpd of production from January until Q2 of 2025, when the group meets online on December 5. The group had previously agreed to restore 2.2 million bpd of output in monthly installments between January and late 2025. Also, the UAE is being allowed to gradually phase in a further 300,000 bpd in recognition of recent increases in its production capacity. OPEC Nov crude production rose +120,000 bpd to 27.02 million bpd.
Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED TODAY/TONIGHT”, Prices are DOWN 4 Cents TODAY, Thursday look for a small bump of 1/2 cent~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 68.77 DN $.1700
NYMEX ULSD $2.2404 UP $.0051
NYMEX Gas $1.9918 DN $.0087
NEWS
The January WTI trading session settled at 68.77 (-0.17) [-0.25%], a high of 70.30, a low of 68.05. Cash price is at 68.96 (-2.27), while open interest for CLF25 is at 346,924. CLF25 settled below its 5 day (69.54), below its 20 day (69.39), below its 50 day (69.90), below its 100 day (71.21), below its 200 day (73.55) and below its year-to-date (73.26) moving averages. The COT report (Futures and Options Summary) as of 11/19 showed commercials with a net short position of -228,299 (a increase in long positions by +7,119 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +219,154 (a increase in long positions by +7,454 from the previous week).
In a televised address Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recommended that his cabinet approve the American and France backed ceasefire agreement with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and just a few hours later, the cabinet approved the deal. Regarding Hezbollah’s benefactor Iran, Netanyahu did say that “The ceasefire allows us to focus on the Iranian threat”. From the White House President Biden said, “Under the deal reached today, effective at 4:00 a.m. tomorrow, local time, the fighting across the Lebanese Israeli border will end,” adding that “This is designed to be a permanent” ceasefire, and that Lebanon had officially agreed with the deal.
Yesterday, Donald Trump announced on his Truth Social platform that, upon taking office, one of his first executive orders will be to impose a 25% tariff on all products imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. Not yet set in stone of course, but this could drastically affect Canadian oil and natural gas imports. Per Bloomberg, the U.S. imports roughly 4 million barrels per day from Canada, and accounts for more than half of America’s total yearly imports, while the U.S. accounts for about a third of Canada’s total crude oil exports. If this does come to pass, I think you could expect to see energy prices rise across the board. The U.S. Dollar Index closed higher by +0.08% and the three major stock indexes all closed higher.
Exxon Mobil’s President Liam Mallon commented on Trump’s proposed American energy production increase, saying he does not foresee a major production increase via the administration’s incoming policy changes. Specifically citing that Texas, the largest energy producer in the country, is still a private state.
According to newly released Energy Information Administration (EIA) data the U.S. set a new all-time record for crude oil production in August of this year, averaging 13.4 million barrels per day. This is about 100,000 barrels per day higher than the previous record set in December 2023.
Reuters put out an exclusive story yesterday stating Trump’s transition team is putting together a large and sweeping energy package that Trump’s team plans to implement within days after his induction. According to Reuters the two sources say the plan would approve export permits for LNG and increase oil drilling on federal lands and the U.S. coast, as well as officially approve the Keystone Pipeline. According to federal data, oil production on federal lands and the U.S. coast hit all-time highs in 2023, with drilling on federal lands and waters accounting for about a quarter of U.S. oil production.
Weather forecasts for this week predict winter temperatures across the Upper Midwest and East-Coast here in the states. Travel Group AAA predicts up to 80 million Americans will be traveling for the Thanksgiving holiday this week, the 80 million figure is a 1.3 million increase compared to last year. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) said last week it expects this Thanksgiving to be the busiest Thanksgiving travel period on record, with an estimated 18.3 million people being screened in airports, which is a 6% increase over last year.
Now that Donald Trump has been elected President, we believe he’ll fulfill his promise to “Drill baby, drill”, significantly increasing the output capacity for American energy, passing executive orders as soon as day one in office. Keep in mind that the U.S. currently produces 13.5 million barrels of oil per day, a figure that’s nearly 30% higher than it was just four years ago. Over the past 50 years, U.S. energy production has grown at a faster rate than consumption, and since 2019, America has been a net energy exporter. We shall see where that “million barrels per day” number goes after Trump is sworn in. Drastically increasing American energy output could create an interesting market share conflict with the OPEC+ nations, but that’s another story, potentially down the line.Then there’s China, how much stimulus they choose to add to bolster their economy could determine crude prices significantly in the short and long term, we believe, and we’ll have to wait and see the impact Trump’s tariffs have. And then there’s the Middle East situation, which could simmer or explode, and even if the violence ends I believe we’ll see new economic sanctions on Iran. With the prevailing themes of a stronger dollar, potential trade wars, increasing supply, slowing economies and a lack of global demand front running price sentiment, it leads me to believe in 2025 crude oil prices will not end up averaging in the $85-$95 range, rather I see crude prices trading in the low $60’s to middle $70’s range, for long as there’s no black swan events.
Fueling Strategy: Please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY OR BETTER YET WAIT TO FUEL UNTIL WEDNESDAY AM”, Wednesday prices will DROP 4 Cents ~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 69.94 DN $2.3000
NYMEX ULSD $2.2353 DN $0.0396
NYMEX Gas $2.0005 DN $0.0609
NEWS
The January WTI trading session settled at 68.94 (-2.30), a high of 71.44, a low of 68.74. Cash price is at 71.23 (+1.14), while open interest for CLF25 is at 346,924. CLF25 settled below its 5 day (69.68), below its 20 day (69.30), below its 50 day (69.90), below its 100 day (71.31), below its 200 day (73.58) and below its year-to-date (73.28) moving averages. The COT report (Futures and Options Summary) as of 11/19 showed commercials with a net short position of -228,299 (a increase in long positions by +7,119 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +219,154 (a increase in long positions by +7,454 from the previous week).
After crude oil prices saw a roughly +6% gain last week on the heels of the Russia-Ukraine war, oil prices have headed lower today after sources told Axios a emerging ceasefire deal between Hezbollah and Israel was in the works, that supposedly has Prime Minister Netanyahu’s approval. Netanyahu’s spokesperson told CNN that the Israeli cabinet will vote on the proposed ceasefire deal tomorrow. The deal aims to first implement a 60-day ceasefire, where the Israeli military would withdraw from southern Lebanon and Hezbollah would move weapons north while UN peacekeepers would secure the border with the Lebanese army. This news comes after a weekend where Hezbollah fired 340 rockets and drones at Israel (with 250 of those being launched on Sunday), according to Israel’s military, who also said the IDF had carried out strikes on 12 Hezbollah command centers in southern Beirut on Sunday. We shall see what happens, but personally I am skeptical that a ceasefire will be agreed upon this week with the pot shots we saw this weekend fired by both sides and Iran’s involvement in the fiasco.
Reuters put out an exclusive story this morning stating Trump’s transition team is putting together a large and sweeping energy package that Trump’s team plans to implement within days after his induction. According to Reuters the two sources say the plan would approve export permits for LNG and increase oil drilling on federal lands and the U.S. coast, as well as officially approve the Keystone Pipeline. According to federal data, oil production on federal lands and the U.S. coast hit all-time highs in 2023, with drilling on federal lands and waters accounting for about a quarter of U.S. oil production. The response to Trump’s nomination for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, has seemed to be overwhelmingly positive from what I have read and seen from the market reaction today and over the weekend. Described as a fiscal hawk and moderate when it comes to global trade, he is expected to take a “softer approach” when it comes to Trump’s proposed tariffs and regulation cut backs. The U.S. Dollar Index closed lower by -0.60% and the major stock indexes closed higher.
China has issued an additional crude oil import quota of at least 116,800 barrels per day to independent refiners for cargoes arriving in December 2024 and early 2025, Reuters reported Sunday night. China’s current crude oil import quota for non state-owned firms crude oil in 2024 is 243 million tons, in 2025 it will be raised to 257 million tons. Last month China imported 10.53 million barrels per day of crude oil, which was 9% lower than October 2023 and 2% lower than the 11.07 million barrels per day imported in September of this year, according to China’s General Administration of Customs. China’s Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the CSI 300 closed -0.46% lower today.
There are whispers going around the trade desks that OPEC+ will again delay their planned output increase by another month at the group’s upcoming meeting this Sunday. The latest story on the topic comes from Reuters, with Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Shabazov this morning giving credence to the rumor and after Reuters late last week put out a similar story citing two sources who declined to be named.
Weather forecasts for this week predict winter temperatures across the Upper Midwest and East-Coast here in the states. Travel Group AAA predicts up to 80 million Americans will be traveling for the Thanksgiving holiday this week, the 80 million figure is a 1.3 million increase compared to last year.
Price Thoughts – Historically the Thanksgiving holiday is a low volume, high volatility week for the energy markets. Personally I would be looking to buy any price breaks under $66 at the moment. Settling below $67 this week could see a further price break towards the next support line around $65 flat, which has been a major support line over the last few years, and today’s Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire deal could push us there if a deal is signed. To the upside ~$70.25 is still the short term resistance with mid ~$72 (which were tested last week and this morning) after that. In the short term I would expect higher volatility with the current geopolitical tensions, but there’s still a weight on prices via the demand situation.
Now that Donald Trump has been elected President, people believe he’ll fulfill his promise to “Drill baby, drill”, significantly increasing the output capacity for American energy, passing executive orders as soon as day one in office. Keep in mind that the U.S. currently produces 13.5 million barrels of oil per day, a figure that’s nearly 30% higher than it was just four years ago. Over the past 50 years, U.S. energy production has grown at a faster rate than consumption, and since 2019, America has been a net energy exporter. We shall see where that “million barrels per day” number goes after Trump is sworn in. Drastically increasing American energy output could create an interesting market share conflict with the OPEC+ nations, but that’s another story, potentially down the line. Then there’s China, how much stimulus they choose to add to bolster their economy could determine crude prices significantly in the short and long term, I believe, and we’ll have to wait and see the impact Trump’s tariffs have. And then there’s the Middle East situation, which could simmer or explode, and even if the violence ends I believe we’ll see new economic sanctions on Iran. With the prevailing themes of a stronger dollar, potential trade wars, increasing supply, slowing economies and a lack of global demand front running price sentiment, it leads me to believe in 2025 crude oil prices will not end up averaging in the $85-$95 range, rather I see crude prices trading in the $65 to middle $70’s range, for long as there’s no black swan events.
Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT”, Make sure you’re completely full of fuel by 23:00 CST tonight! – Wednesday prices will JUMPUp 8 Cents ~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 69.16 UP $2.1400
NYMEX ULSD $2.2514 UP $0.0805
NYMEX Gas $2.0183 UP $0.0690
NEWS
The January WTI trading session settled at 69.16 (+2.14) [+3.36%], had a high of 69.37, a low of 66.53. Cash price is at 67.03 (-1.65), while open interest for CLF25 is at 348,664. CLF25 settled above its 5 day (68.18), below its 20 day (69.37), below its 50 day (69.57), below its 100 day (71.78), below its 200 day (73.63) and below its year-to-date (73.37) moving averages. The COT report (Futures and Options Summary) as of 11/12 showed commercials with a net short position of -235,418 (a increase in long positions by +4,726 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +211,700 (a decrease in short positions by -12,226 from the previous week).
Markets are responding to President Biden’s shift in policy regarding Ukraine’s use of American missiles to strike targets within Russia. This decision comes with only two months remaining in his presidency and directly opposes President-elect Trump’s commitment to negotiate a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine upon taking office. Previously, President Putin warned that any Ukrainian use of American-made missiles on Russian soil would be viewed as an act of war by the United States.
China’s oil demand continues to show more signs of weakness, as Reuters reported a significant reduction in the country’s crude oil surplus in October. The surplus dropped to 550,000 barrels per day for October, down from 930,000 barrels per day in September. However domestic crude production rose 2.5% year-over-year to 4.04 million bpd, while imports reached 10.53 million bpd. China’s Shanghai CSI 300 Index closed 0.46% lower today and is 4.43% lower over the last 5 sessions.
Western Europe’s largest crude oil refinery, the Johan Sverdrup operated in Norway and owned by Equinor, suffered a power outage this morning. Equinor said work to bring the oilfield back online was underway, though no set time figure was given as to when it would be.
Saudi Arabia posted their largest export figure in three months, the Joint Organizations Data Initiative reported this morning. Exports for the Kingdom increased by 80,000 barrels per day, bringing it to a total of 5.75 mb/d. Starting in January OPEC+ plans to add 180,000 barrels per day, gradually restoring 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of next year. OPEC+ is currently withholding 5.86 million barrels per day (roughly 5.7% of global crude demand). Last week OPEC+ cut their global oil demand forecast for this year and for 2025 for the fourth consecutive month. The institution sees oil consumption increasing by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024, averaging 104 million barrels per day globally, this is 107,000 barrels per day less than the previous forecast. For 2025 OPEC+ predicts that daily global demand will increase by 1.5 million barrels, 103,000 barrels less than the previous forecast. OPEC+ cited the lessening demand out of China, India and Africa as reasons for lowering the forecast. OPEC+ is scheduled to have their next meeting on December 1st.
Last week The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised their global demand growth forecast for 2024 from 862,000 barrels per day to 921,000 barrels per day, this figure is less than half that was recorded in 2023. The IEA lowered their demand growth forecast for 2025 to 990,000 barrels per day, citing supply glut concerns. The IEA is predicting a surplus of over 1 million barrels a day for 2025. Last week’s EIA Petroleum Status Report showed U.S. Commercial crude oil inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels, higher than the 300,000 barrel increase that was forecasted. Seasonally U.S. crude inventories are about 4.6% below their 5 year average. The inventory for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve grew slightly from 387.3 million barrels to 387.8 million barrels. Crude imports increased by 269,000 barrels per day, averaging 6.5 million barrels per day. Domestic crude oil production was lowered by 100,000 million barrels per day. American crude oil refineries operated at 91.4% capacity. The American Petroleum Institute reported that commercial inventories decreased by 770,000 barrels at the Cushing Hub, against a forecast for a million barrel build. Elsewhere Morgan Stanley cut its demand forecast for this year to 800,000 barrels per day and lowered their barrel price forecast for the first quarter of 2025 to $72.
Hurricane Sara is no more and has been downgraded to a Tropical Rainstorm, tracking across the Gulf Coast, it is expected to bring heavy flooding in the region according to AccuWeather.
