Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED” today/tonight, Today prices are down 4.5 Cents then Thursday prices will continue to drop another 4 Cents, Friday prices will JUMP UP 9 cents ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 93.68 UP $3.2900

NYMEX ULSD     $3.3147 UP $0.0909

NYMEX Gas       $2.5986 UP $0.0364

NEWS

HOUSTON, Sept 27 (Reuters) – Oil prices surged 3% on Wednesday to the highest settlement in 2023, after a steep drop in U.S. crude stocks compounded worries of tight global supplies. Brent crude futures closed up $2.59, or 2.8%, at $96.55. It breached $97 a barrel during the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) climbed $3.29, or 3.6%, to $93.68. The session high was over $94.

U.S. crude stocks fell 2.2 million barrels last week to 416.3 million barrels, government data showed, far exceeding the 320,000-barrel drop analysts expected in a Reuters poll. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub, delivery point for U.S. crude futures, fell by 943,000 barrels in the week to just under 22 million barrels, the lowest since July 2022, data showed. “The market is being led up by storage numbers as we are getting to the minimum operational inventories at Cushing,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. Stockpiles at Cushing have been falling closer to historic low levels due to strong refining and export demand, prompting concerns about quality of the remaining oil at the hub and whether it will fall below minimum operating levels.

Prices fell last week but were rallying again as markets worried about tight supplies heading into winter, following production cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day to the end of the year by Saudi Arabia and Russia of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies known as OPEC+. “Until a decision to raise production is made, the global energy market will remain tight,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said.

The tight supply was reflected in time spreads with front month Brent futures trading at a 42.28 premium over the second month, its highest since October, while on WTI futures, the front month traded at a $2.43 premium to the second month, the highest since July 2022. WTI’s discount to Brent also hit its narrowest since late April. “The market is overbought and a correction is definitely needed,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.

Potentially adding to supply tightness, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his government to ensure retail fuel prices stabilize after a jump caused by an increase in exports. In response, his deputy prime minister cited proposals to restrict exports of oil products purchased for domestic use.

The Reserve Bank of Dallas released a survey showing oil and gas activity in three key energy producing U.S. states has been rising with the latest jump in energy prices.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

OCT 13 Out After 14:00

NOV 02 All Day

NOV 03 In Office @ 14:00

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY” today/tonight due to Wednesday prices will fall almost 4.5 Cents ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 90.39 UP $.7100

NYMEX ULSD     $3.2238 DN $.0384

NYMEX Gas       $2.5622 UP $.0183

NEWS

November WTI crude oil on Tuesday closed up +0.71 (+0.79%), and Nov RBOB gasoline closed up +1.32 (+0.53%). Nov WTI crude oil and gasoline prices Tuesday posted moderate gains on concern that global oil supplies will remain tight for the foreseeable future.  Crude prices also moved higher Tuesday on expectations for Wednesday’s weekly EIA crude inventory report to fall by -900,000 bbl.

Gains in crude were limited by Tuesday’s rally in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 9-3/4 month high.  Also, a slump in the S&P 500 Tuesday to a 3-1/2 month low undercut confidence in the economic outlook and was negative for energy demand and crude prices.

Tuesday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. economic reports fueled concern the U.S. economy is losing momentum, which is negative for energy demand and crude prices.  Aug new home sales fell -8.7% m/m to a 5-month low of 675,000, weaker than expectations of 698,000.  Also, the Conference Board’s Sep U.S. consumer confidence index fell -5.7 to a 4-month low of 103.0, weaker than expectations of 105.5.

Crude oil prices were also undercut by concern about China’s worsening property crisis.  China Evergrande Group said its subsidiary Hengda Real Estate Group defaulted on a 4 billion yuan ($547 million) debt payment due Monday, and Chinese authorities detained former company executives.

Weakness in the crude crack spread is bearish for oil prices.  Tuesday’s crack spread fell to a 1-1/2 year low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil to refine it into gasoline and distillates.

Crude prices have carryover support from last Thursday when Russia said it would ban gasoline and diesel exports in an attempt to stabilize domestic fuel prices.   The ban will take out about 1 million bpd of fuel supplies, or about 3.4% of total global demand according to Vortexa data, and will squeeze supplies further in an already tight global energy market.

The tightness in the oil market is expected to continue due to the extension of OPEC+ production cuts.  Saudi Arabia recently said it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through December.  The move will hold Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Russia also recently announced that it would maintain its 300,000 bpd cut in crude production through December.  Russian crude oil shipments in August dropped to 2.28 million bpd, down -9% m/m and the lowest daily average in eleven months.

An increase in crude in floating storage is bearish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +11% w/w to 95.93 million bbl as of Sep 22.

The U.S. and Iran last Monday announced a prisoner exchange and the unlocking of $6 billion of Iranian funds.  Improved U.S.-Iran relations could result in the eventual resumption of nuclear talks, with any deal leading to relaxed Iran sanctions and increased Iranian oil exports.  According to TankerTrackers.com, Iranian crude exports rose to a 5-year high of 2.2 million bpd during the first 20 days of August, with most of the crude going to China.

Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Sep 15 were -2.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -15.2% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ended Sep 15 was unchanged w/w at 12.9 million bpd, the most in 3-1/2 years.  U.S. crude oil production is modestly below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Sep 22 fell -8 to a 19-1/2 month low of 507 rigs.  That is well below the 3-1/4 year high of 627 rigs posted on Dec 2, 2022.  Still, U.S. active oil rigs have roughly tripled from the 18-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity from pandemic lows.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

OCT 13 Out After 14:00

NOV 02 All Day

NOV 03 In Office @ 14:00

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED” tonight, Tuesday please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY” due to Wednesday prices will fall almost 5 Cents ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 89.68 DN $.3500

NYMEX ULSD     $3.2622 DN $.0440

NYMEX Gas       $2.5439 DN $.0179

NEWS

November WTI crude oil this morning is down -0.47 (-0.52%), and Nov RBOB gasoline is down -2.60 (-1.04%). Nov WTI crude oil and gasoline prices this morning are moderately lower, with gasoline falling to a 3-week low.  Today’s rally in the dollar index to a 6-1/2 month high is undercutting energy prices.  Also, there are concerns that a worsening of China’s property debt crisis will derail China’s economy and energy demand is weighing on crude prices.   However, losses in crude are limited by expectations that global oil supplies will remain tight.

Concerns that a worsening of China’s property crisis will derail its economy and demand for energy is bearish for crude prices.  China Evergrande Group on Sunday scrapped a creditor meeting and said it must revisit its restructuring plan.  Also, China Oceanwide Holdings Ltd. disclosed it is facing liquidation after a Bermuda court issued a winding-up order against the company and involved a $175 million loan principal that wasn’t paid.  In addition, concerns are growing that Chian Country Garden Holdings may suffer an imminent default after missing initial deadlines to pay dollar bond interest.

Weakness in the crude crack spread is bearish for oil prices.  Today’s crack spread fell to a 9-1/2 month low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil to refine it into gasoline and distillates.

Crude prices have carryover support from last Thursday when Russia said it would ban gasoline and diesel exports in an attempt to stabilize domestic fuel prices.   The ban will take out about 1 million bpd of fuel supplies, or about 3.4% of total global demand according to Vortexa data, and will squeeze supplies further in an already tight global energy market.

The tightness in the oil market is expected to continue due to the extension of OPEC+ production cuts.  Saudi Arabia recently said it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through December.  The move will hold Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Russia also recently announced that it would maintain its 300,000 bpd cut in crude production through December.  Russian crude oil shipments in August dropped to 2.28 million bpd, down -9% m/m and the lowest daily average in eleven months.

An increase in crude in floating storage is bearish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +11% w/w to 95.93 million bbl as of Sep 22.

The U.S. and Iran last Monday announced a prisoner exchange and the unlocking of $6 billion of Iranian funds.  Improved U.S.-Iran relations could result in the eventual resumption of nuclear talks, with any deal leading to relaxed Iran sanctions and increased Iranian oil exports.  According to TankerTrackers.com, Iranian crude exports rose to a 5-year high of 2.2 million bpd during the first 20 days of August, with most of the crude going to China.

Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Sep 15 were -2.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -15.2% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ended Sep 15 was unchanged w/w at 12.9 million bpd, the most in 3-1/2 years.  U.S. crude oil production is modestly below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Sep 22 fell -8 to a 19-1/2 month low of 507 rigs.  That is well below the 3-1/4 year high of 627 rigs posted on Dec 2, 2022.  Still, U.S. active oil rigs have roughly tripled from the 18-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity from pandemic lows.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE 

OCT 13 Out After 14:00

NOV 02 All Day

NOV 03 In Office @ 14:00

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY” tonight, Friday prices will drop 5 cents then Saturday look for prices to go UP 4 cents ~Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 89.63 DN $.0300

NYMEX ULSD     $3.3680 UP $.0412

NYMEX Gas       $2.6199 UP $.0026

NEWS

November WTI crude oil on Thursday closed down -0.03 (-0.03%), and Nov RBOB gasoline closed down -0.26 (-0.10%).

Nov WTI crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday whipsawed throughout the day and finally settled with modest losses.  An early rally in the dollar index Thursday to a 6-1/2 month high was bearish for energy prices.  Also, concern that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer undercut equities and weighs on confidence in the economic outlook, which is negative for energy demand.  Crude prices Thursday initially moved higher after Russia banned gasoline and diesel exports, further tightening global fuel supplies.

Crude prices found support Thursday after Russia said it would ban gasoline and diesel exports in an attempt to stabilize domestic fuel prices.   The ban will take out about 1 million bpd of fuel supplies, or about 3.4% of total global demand according to Vortexa data, and will squeeze supplies further in an already tight global energy market.

U.S. economic news Thursday was mixed for energy prices.  On the negative side, the  Sep Philadelphia business outlook survey fell -25.5 to -13.5, weaker than expectations of -1.0.  Also, Aug existing home sales unexpectedly fell -0.7% m/m to a 7-month low of 4.04 million, weaker than expectations of a +0.7% m/m increase to 4.10 million.  Conversely, weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -20,000 to a 7-1/2 month low of 201,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 225,000.

Oil prices have support from forecasts last week by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC that the global oil market will be in deficit through year-end.  Last Tuesday, OPEC projected that the global oil market may experience a shortfall of 3.3 million bpd in the fourth quarter, the tightest oil market in more than ten years.  Also, the International Energy Agency (IEA) last Tuesday projected the global oil market faces a deficit of about -1.2 million bpd in the second half of this year as oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia create a “significant supply shortfall.”

The tightness in the oil market is expected to continue due to the extension of OPEC+ production cuts.  Saudi Arabia recently said it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through December.  The move will hold Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Russia also recently announced that it would maintain its 300,000 bpd cut in crude production through December.  Russian crude oil shipments in August dropped to 2.28 million bpd, down -9% m/m and the lowest daily average in eleven months.

Oil prices were undercut Monday when Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud said “the jury is still out” on Chinese oil demand.  Also, Saudi national oil company Aramco on Monday pared its outlook for longer-term 2030 oil demand to 110 million bpd, versus the 125 million bpd it expected in 2010.  The IEA is projecting an even lower 2030 demand of 105 million bpd due to the energy transition.  Shorter-term Aramco is forecasting record consumption of 103-104 million bpd in the second half of 2023.

A decline in crude in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -8.9% w/w to 83.89 million bbl as of Sep 15.

The U.S. and Iran on Monday announced a prisoner exchange and the unlocking of $6 billion of Iranian funds.  Improved U.S.-Iran relations could result in the eventual resumption of nuclear talks, with any deal leading to relaxed Iran sanctions and increased Iranian oil exports.  According to TankerTrackers.com, Iranian crude exports rose to a 5-year high of 2.2 million bpd during the first 20 days of August, with most of the crude going to China.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Sep 15 were -2.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -15.2% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ended Sep 15 was unchanged w/w at 12.9 million bpd, the most in 3-1/2 years.  U.S. crude oil production is modestly below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Sep 15 rose +2 to 515 rigs, just above the 17-month low of 512 rigs from Sep 1.  That is well below the 3-1/4 year high of 627 rigs posted on Dec 2, 2022.  Still, U.S. active oil rigs have roughly tripled from the 18-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity from pandemic lows.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

SEP 22 AFTER 14:00

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED” today/tonight, Thursday will JUMP up 9 Cents ~Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 90.28 DN $.9200

NYMEX ULSD     $3.3268 DN $.0471

NYMEX Gas       $2.6392 DN $.0389

NEWS

October WTI crude oil on Wednesday closed down -0.92 (-1.01%), and Oct RBOB gasoline  closed down -3.89 (-1.46%).

Oct WTI crude oil and gasoline prices Wednesday gave up early gains and posted moderate losses after the Federal Reserve raised its estimate for interest rates next year, which helped the dollar recover and may keep economic growth and energy demand subdued.  Crude prices Wednesday initially moved higher on a weaker dollar and a bullish weekly EIA inventory report.

Oil prices have support from forecasts last week by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC that the global oil market will be in deficit through year-end.  Last Tuesday, OPEC projected that the global oil market may experience a shortfall of 3.3 million bpd in the fourth quarter, the tightest oil market in more than ten years.  Also, the International Energy Agency (IEA) last Tuesday projected the global oil market faces a deficit of about -1.2 million bpd in the second half of this year as oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia create a “significant supply shortfall.”

The tightness in the oil market is expected to continue due to the extension of OPEC+ production cuts.  Saudi Arabia recently said it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through December.  The move will hold Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Russia also recently announced that it would maintain its 300,000 bpd cut in crude production through December.  Russian crude oil shipments in August dropped to 2.28 million bpd, down -9% m/m and the lowest daily average in eleven months.

Oil prices were undercut Monday when Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud said “the jury is still out” on Chinese oil demand.  Also, Saudi national oil company Aramco on Monday pared its outlook for longer-term 2030 oil demand to 110 million bpd, versus the 125 million bpd it expected in 2010.  The IEA is projecting lower 2030 demand of 105 million bpd due to the energy transition.  Shorter-term Aramco is forecasting record consumption of 103-104 million bpd in the second half of 2023.

A decline in crude in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -8.9% w/w to 83.89 million bbl as of Sep 15.

The U.S. and Iran on Monday announced a prisoner exchange and the unlocking of $6 billion of Iranian funds.  Improved U.S.-Iran relations could result in the eventual resumption of nuclear talks, with any deal leading to relaxed Iran sanctions and increased Iranian oil exports.  According to TankerTrackers.com, Iranian crude exports rose to a 5-year high of 2.2 million bpd during the first 20 days of August, with most of the crude going to China.

Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was bullish for crude oil and products.  EIA crude inventories fell -2.14 million bbl, a larger draw than expectations of -1.7 million bbl.  Also, EIA gasoline supplies unexpectedly fell -831,000 bbl versus expectations of a +1.1 million bbl build.  In addition, EIA distillate stockpiles unexpectedly fell -2.87 million bbl versus expectations of a +1.05 million bbl build.  Finally, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, fell -2.0 million bbl to a 14-month low.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Sep 15 were -2.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -15.2% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ended Sep 15 was unchanged w/w at 12.9 million bpd, the most in 3-1/2 years.  U.S. crude oil production is modestly below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Sep 15 rose +2 to 515 rigs, just above the 17-month low of 512 rigs from Sep 1.  That is well below the 3-1/4 year high of 627 rigs posted on Dec 2, 2022.  Still, U.S. active oil rigs have roughly tripled from the 18-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity from pandemic lows.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

SEP 22 AFTER 14:00

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY” tonight, Wednesday prices will drop 9.5 cents so “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED”,Thursday prices will go back UP 9 cents ~Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 91.20 DN $.2800

NYMEX ULSD     $3.3739 UP $.0856

NYMEX Gas       $2.6581 DN $.0398

NEWS

October WTI crude oil on Tuesday closed -0.28 (-0.31%), and Oct RBOB gasoline closed -3.98 (-1.48%).

Oct WTI crude oil prices on Tuesday climbed to a new 10-1/2 month high on the nearest-futures chart, extending the rally seen in the past three months driven by expectations for a tight supply outlook through year-end.  However, crude oil prices fell back later in the session on long liquidation pressure and some concern about the global economy.  Tuesday’s U.S. housing starts report showed a -11.3% decline, and the OECD cut its global 2024 GDP forecast to +2.7% from +3.0%.

Oil prices have support from forecasts last week by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC that the global oil market will be in deficit through year-end.  OPEC last Tuesday projected the global oil market may experience a shortfall of 3.3 million bpd in the fourth quarter, the tightest oil market in more than ten years.  Also, the International Energy Agency (IEA) last Tuesday projected the global oil market faces a deficit of about -1.2 million bpd in the second half of this year as oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia create a “significant supply shortfall.”

The tightness in the oil market is expected to continue due to the extension of OPEC+ production cuts.  Saudi Arabia recently said it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through December.  The move will hold Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Russia also recently announced that it would maintain its 300,000 bpd cut in crude production through December.  Russian crude oil shipments in August dropped to 2.28 million bpd, down -9% m/m and the lowest daily average in eleven months.

Oil prices were undercut Monday when Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud said the “the jury is still out” on Chinese oil demand.  Also, Saudi national oil company Aramco on Monday pared its outlook for longer-term 2030 oil demand to 110 million bpd, versus the 125 million bpd it expected in 2010.  The IEA is projecting lower 2030 demand of 105 million bpd due to the energy transition.  Shorter-term Aramco is forecasting record consumption of 103-104 million bpd in the second half of 2023.

A decline in crude in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -8.9% w/w to 83.89 million bbl as of Sep 15.

The U.S. and Iran on Monday announced a prisoner exchange and the unlocking of $6 billion of Iranian funds.  Improved U.S.-Iran relations could result in the eventual resumption of nuclear talks, with any deal leading to relaxed Iran sanctions and increased Iranian oil exports.  According to TankerTrackers.com, Iranian crude exports rose to a 5-year high of 2.2 million bpd during the first 20 days of August, with most of the crude going to China.

Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Sep 8 were -2.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -12.6% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ended Sep 8 rose +0.8% w/w to 12.9 million bpd, the most in 3-1/2 years.  U.S. crude oil production is modestly below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Sep 15 rose +2 to 515 rigs, just above the 17-month low of 512 rigs from Sep 1.  That is well below the 3-1/4 year high of 627 rigs posted on Dec 2, 2022.  Still, U.S. active oil rigs have roughly tripled from the 18-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity from pandemic lows.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE 

SEP 22 AFTER 14:00

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

 “To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED” today/tonight, Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 91.48 UP $.7100

NYMEX ULSD     $3.2883 DN $.0951

NYMEX Gas       $2.6979 DN $.0102

NEWS

October WTI crude oil Monday closed +0.71 (+0.78%), and Oct RBOB gasoline closed -1.02 (-0.38%). Oct WTI crude oil prices Monday climbed to a new 11-month high, extending the rally seen in the past three months driven by expectations for a tight supply outlook through year-end.

However, oil prices were undercut by comments Monday by Saudi Energy Minister Abdulazia bin Salman Al Saud, who said the “the jury is still out” on Chinese oil demand.  Also, Saudi national oil company Aramco pared its outlook for longer-term 2030 oil demand to 110 million bpd, versus the 125 million bpd it expected in 2010.  The IEA is projecting lower 2030 demand of 105 million bpd due to the energy transition.  Aramco is forecasting record consumption of 103-104 million bpd in the second half of 2023.

Oil prices have support from forecasts last week by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC that the global oil market will be in deficit through year-end.  OPEC last Tuesday projected the global oil market may experience a shortfall of 3.3 million bpd in the fourth quarter, the tightest oil market in more than ten years.  Also, the International Energy Agency (IEA) last Tuesday projected the global oil market faces a deficit of about -1.2 million bpd in the second half of this year as oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia create a “significant supply shortfall.”

The tightness in the oil market is expected to continue due to the extension of OPEC+ production cuts.  Saudi Arabia recently said it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through December.  The move will hold Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Russia also recently announced that it would maintain its 300,000 bpd cut in crude production through December.  Russian crude oil shipments in August dropped to 2.28 million bpd, down -9% m/m and the lowest daily average in eleven months.

A decline in crude in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -8.9% w/w to 83.89 million bbl as of Sep 15.

The U.S. and Iran on Monday announced a prisoner exchange and the unlocking of $6 billion in Iranian funds.  Improved U.S.-Iran relations could result in the eventual resumption of nuclear talks, with any deal leading to relaxed Iran sanctions and increased Iranian oil exports.  According to TankerTrackers.com, Iranian crude exports rose to a 5-year high of 2.2 million bpd during the first 20 days of August, with most of the crude going to China.

Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Sep 8 were -2.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -12.6% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ended Sep 8 rose +0.8% w/w to 12.9 million bpd, the most in 3-1/2 years.  U.S. crude oil production is modestly below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Sep 15 rose +2 to 515 rigs, just above the 17-month low of 512 rigs from Sep 1.  That is well below the 3-1/4 year high of 627 rigs posted on Dec 2, 2022.  Still, U.S. active oil rigs have roughly tripled from the 18-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity from pandemic lows.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE 

SEP 22 AFTER 14:00

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED” today/tonight, Saturday look for another 5 Cents Jump UP but will DROP 10 Cents Sunday~Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 90.77 UP $.6100

NYMEX ULSD     $3.3834 DN $.0981

NYMEX Gas       $2.7081 DN $.0346

NEWS

October WTI crude oil on Friday closed up +0.61 (+0.68%), and Oct RBOB gasoline closed down -3.46 (-1.26%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday settled mixed, with crude climbing to a 10-1/4 month high.  Dollar weakness Friday was supportive of energy prices.   Also, stronger-than-expected economic reports from China, the world’s second-largest crude consumer, support energy demand and prices.  In addition, crude has carryover support from Tuesday when the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC said the global oil market will be in deficit through year-end.  On the bearish side was Friday’s slump in stocks, which undercut confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand.

Friday’s economic news from China was better than expected and supported energy demand and crude prices.  China Aug industrial production rose +4.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.9% y/y and the biggest increase in 4 months.  Also, China Aug retail sales rose +4.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.0% y/y.

U.S. economic news Friday was mixed for energy prices.  On the bullish side, Aug industrial production rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m.  Also, the Sep Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions rose +20.9 to 1.9, stronger than expectations of -10.0.  On the bearish side, the University of Michigan U.S. Sep consumer sentiment fell -1.8 to 67.7, weaker than expectations of 69.0.

Crude found support Tuesday after the monthly report from OPEC projected the global oil market may experience a shortfall of 3.3 million bpd in the fourth quarter, the tightest oil market in more than ten years.  Also, the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday projected the global oil market faces a deficit of about -1.2 million bpd in the second half of this year as oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia create a “significant supply shortfall.”

The global crude market continues to tighten and underpin oil prices after Saudi Arabia last Tuesday said it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through December.  The move will hold Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Also, last Tuesday, Russia announced it would maintain its 300,000 bpd cut in crude production through December. A bullish factor for crude oil is a decline in Russian crude shipments.  Vessel-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed Russian crude oil shipments in August dropped to 2.28 million bpd, down -9% m/m and the lowest daily average in eleven months. A decline in crude in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -5.8% w/w to 81.02 million bbl as of Sep 8, the lowest in 9 months.

An increase in Iranian crude exports is boosting global supplies and is bearish for oil prices.  According to TankerTrackers.com, Iranian crude exports rose to a 5-year high of 2.2 million bpd during the first 20 days of August, with most of the crude going to China. A negative factor for crude prices is the progress made in Iran-U.S. relations that could lead to higher crude exports from Iran after Iran said the recent deal with the U.S. on the release of prisoners and frozen Iranian funds could lead to diplomacy in other areas, including its nuclear program.  An agreement on Iran’s nuclear program could eventually prompt the U.S. and its allies to remove sanctions on Iranian crude exports, boosting global crude supplies. A decline in crude demand in India, the world’s third-biggest crude consumer, is bearish for oil prices.  India’s July crude oil imports fell -6.3% y/y to 19.3 MMT, the lowest in 8 months.

OPEC crude production in August was little changed, rising +40,000 bpd to 27.82 million bpd, recovering slightly from July’s  1-3/4 year low of 27.78 million bpd. Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Sep 8 were -2.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -12.6% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ended Sep 8 rose +0.8% w/w to 12.9 million bpd, the most in 3-1/2 years.  U.S. crude oil production is modestly below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Sep 15 rose +21 to 515 rigs, just above the 17-month low of 512 rigs from Sep 1.  That is well below the 3-1/4 year high of 627 rigs posted on Dec 2, 2022.  Still, U.S. active oil rigs are more than triple the 18-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity from pandemic lows.

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

SEP 22 AFTER 14:00

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED” today/tonight, Friday prices will JUMP UP 11 cents then Saturday look for another 5 Cents Jump UP~Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 90.16 UP $1.6400

NYMEX ULSD     $3.4815 UP $0.0461

NYMEX Gas       $2.7427 UP $0.0043

Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

SEP 22 AFTER 14:00

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY” today/tonight, Thursday prices will drop 3.5 cents ~Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 88.52 DN $.3200

NYMEX ULSD     $3.4354 UP $.1071

NYMEX Gas       $2.7384 UP $.0105

 Have a Great Day,

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE

SEP 22 AFTER 14:00

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 30-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams