Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED” today/tonight~Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 73.99 DN $.2300

NYMEX ULSD     $2.6968 DN $.0117

NYMEX Gas       $2.1585 DN $.0422

NEWS

February WTI crude oil on Thursday closed down -0.23 (-0.44%), and Feb RBOB gasoline closed down -4.22 (-1.83%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed moderately lower.  Crude prices were weighed down by negative carryover from Wednesday when the EIA reported an unexpected increase in weekly U.S. oil supplies and record U.S. crude production.  Crude oil prices also fell on concerns about a rift among OPEC members after Angola announced its exit from the group.  In addition, Thursday’s weak U.S. economic reports signalled reduced energy demand and were bearish for oil prices.  Losses in crude were contained by a weaker dollar.

Crude prices came under pressure Thursday after Angola announced that it is leaving OPEC amid a dispute over oil production quotas.  Angola is Africa’s second-largest crude producer, and the rift between Angola and other OPEC+ members is a bearish factor that signals more infighting among members.  Other OPEC members may balk at Saudi Arabia’s attempt to force all members into a production cut.

Thursday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. economic news signalled weak energy demand that was bearish for crude prices.  U.S. Q3 GDP was revised downward by -0.3 to 4.9% (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of no change at 5.2%.  Also, the Dec Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey unexpectedly fell -4.6 to -10.5, weaker than expectations of an increase to -3.0.  In addition, Nov leading indicators fell -0.5% m/m, the twentieth consecutive month leading indicators have declined.

Geopolitical risks are bullish for crude prices after BP joined Equinor and Euronav in halting crude oil shipments on tankers through the Red Sea because of increasingly frequent attacks on ships in the region.  The attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East are forcing shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting crude oil supplies.  At least twenty merchant ships have been attacked or approached around Yemen by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in the Red Sea since Israel’s war with Hamas broke out in October.  

A supportive factor for crude was last Monday’s projection from the American Automobile Association (AAA) that a record 7.5 million people are expected to fly from Dec 23 to Jan 2, the most since the AAA began tracking the data in 2000.  

An increase in Russian crude oil exports is bearish for crude oil prices.  Tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg shows refined fuel shipments from Russia climbed to 3.2 million bpd in the four weeks to Dec 10, up +114,000 bpd from the prior week and the highest five months. 

On Nov 30, OPEC+ agreed to cut crude production by -1.0 million bpd through June 2024.  However, crude prices sold off on the news since no details were provided on how the cuts would be distributed among members nor how Russia’s -300,000 bpd export cut would factor into the new totals.  Delegates said the final details of the new accord, including national production levels, would be announced individually by each country rather than in the customary OPEC+ communique.  The market was disappointed that the extra cuts in OPEC crude output will be announced by each individual country, which suggests the reductions may only be voluntary. Saudi Arabia said on Nov 30 that it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through Q1-2024.  The move would maintain Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Russia also said it will deepen its voluntary oil export cuts by 200,000 bpd to 500,000 bpd in Q1 of 2024.  OPEC Nov crude production fell -140,000 bpd to 28.050 million bpd.

Weak demand for crude in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, is bearish for prices.  China’s crude imports were 42.45 MMT, down -13% m/m from Oct and a 7-month low.

A decline in crude in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -13% w/w to 73.32 million bbl as of Dec 15.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Dec 15 were -0.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -1.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -10.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ending Dec 15 rose +1.5% w/w to a record 13.3 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported Thursday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Dec 22 fell by -3 rigs to 498 rigs, just above the 1-3/4 year low of 494 rigs from Nov 10.  The number of U.S. oil rigs has fallen this year after moving sharply higher during 2021-22 from the 18-year pandemic low of 172 rigs posted in Aug 2020 to a 3-1/2 year high of 627 rigs in December 2022.

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE  

DEC 21 Out Late Afternoon

DEC 22 Out All Day

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 31-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED” today/tonight,Thursday prices will go UP another 5 Cents ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 74.22 UP $.2800

NYMEX ULSD     $2.7085 DN $.0083

NYMEX Gas       $2.2007 DN $.0001

NEWS

February WTI crude oil on Wednesday closed up +0.28 (+0.38%), and Feb RBOB gasoline closed up +0.06 (+0.03%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday posted modest gains, with crude climbing to a 2-1/2 week high.  Concerns about disruptions to Middle East crude supplies are boosting oil prices as more oil shippers avoid the Red Sea and ship crude around the southern tip of Africa due to the attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Houthi militants.  Crude prices fell back from their best levels on a bearish EIA report that showed an unexpected increase in weekly U.S. oil supplies and record U.S. crude production.

Geopolitical risks are bullish for crude prices after BP joined Equinor and Euronav in halting crude oil shipments on tankers through the Red Sea because of increasingly frequent attacks on ships in the region.  The attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East are forcing shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting crude oil supplies.  At least twenty merchant ships have been attacked or approached around Yemen by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in the Red Sea since Israel’s war with Hamas broke out in October. 

Wednesday’s better-than-expected global economic news supports energy demand and crude prices.  U.S. Nov existing home sales unexpectedly rose +0.8% m/m to 3.82 million, stronger than expectations of a decline to 3.78 million.  Also, the Conference Board U.S. Dec consumer confidence index rose +9.7 to a 5-month high of 110.7, stronger than expectations of 104.5.  In addition, the Eurozone Dec consumer confidence index rose +1.8 to a 5-month high of -15.1, stronger than expectations of -16.3.

A supportive factor for crude was last Monday’s projection from the American Automobile Association (AAA) that a record 7.5 million people are expected to fly from Dec 23 to Jan 2, the most since the AAA began tracking the data in 2000.  

An increase in Russian crude oil exports is bearish for crude oil prices.  Tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg shows refined fuel shipments from Russia climbed to 3.2 million bpd in the four weeks to Dec 10, up +114,000 bpd from the prior week and the highest five months. On Nov 30, OPEC+ agreed to cut crude production by -1.0 million bpd through June 2024.  However, crude prices sold off on the news since no details were provided on how the cuts would be distributed among members nor how Russia’s -300,000 bpd export cut would factor into the new totals.  Delegates said the final details of the new accord, including national production levels, would be announced individually by each country rather than in the customary OPEC+ communique.  The market was disappointed that the extra cuts in OPEC crude output will be announced by each individual country, which suggests the reductions may only be voluntary. Saudi Arabia said on Nov 30 that it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through Q1-2024.  The move would maintain Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Russia also said it will deepen its voluntary oil export cuts by 200,000 bpd to 500,000 bpd in Q1 of 2024.  OPEC Nov crude production fell -140,000 bpd to 28.050 million bpd. The rift between Angola and other OPEC+ members remains and is a bearish factor that signals more infighting among members.  Angola OPEC governor Pedro said on Nov 30 that his country rejects OPEC’s quota and “Angola will produce above the quota determined by OPEC.”  Angola is Africa’s second-largest crude producer, and OPEC governor Pedro said his country will pump 1.18 million bpd in January, above the 1.11 million quota set out by OPEC.

Weak demand for crude in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, is bearish for prices.  China’s crude imports were 42.45 MMT, down -13% m/m from Oct and a 7-month low.

A decline in crude in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -13% w/w to 73.32 million bbl as of Dec 15.

Wednesday’s weekly EIA crude report was bearish for crude prices.  EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose by +2.91 million bbl versus expectations of a -2.3 million bbl draw.  Also, EIA gasoline stockpiles rose +2.91 million bbl, more than expectations of +1.35 million bbl.  In addition, EIA distillate supplies rose +1.49 million bbl, above expectations of +691,000 bbl.  Finally, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, rose +1.686 million bbl to a 4-month high.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Dec 15 were -0.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -1.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -10.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ending Dec 15 rose +1.5% w/w to a record 13.3 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Dec 15 fell by -2 rigs to 501 rigs, modestly above the 1-3/4 year low of 494 rigs from Nov 10.  The number of U.S. oil rigs has fallen this year after moving sharply higher during 2021-22 from the 18-year pandemic low of 172 rigs posted in Aug 2020 to a 3-1/2 year high of 627 rigs in December 2022.

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE  

DEC 21 Out Late Afternoon

DEC 22 Out All Day

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 31-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED” today/tonight, Wednesday prices will go UP 5 Cents then Thursday look for another 4 to 5 Cent jump in prices~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 73.44 UP $.9700

NYMEX ULSD     $2.7168 UP $.0440

NYMEX Gas       $2.2008 UP $.0418

NEWS

January WTI crude oil on Tuesday closed up +0.97 (+1.34%), and Jan RBOB gasoline closed up +4.18 (+1.94%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday settled moderately higher but remained below Monday’s 2-week highs.  A weaker dollar on Tuesday was bullish for energy prices.  Also, geopolitical risks supported higher crude prices after several major oil shippers stopped shipping crude oil through the Red Sea because of attacks on ships in the region.  In addition, Tuesday’s rally in the S&P 500 to a 23-month high shows confidence in the economic outlook that supports energy demand and crude prices.  Finally, fund short covering lifted crude prices as Tuesday is the last trading day for the Jan WTI crude oil contract.

Geopolitical risks are bullish for crude prices after BP joined Equinor and Euronav in halting crude oil shipments on tankers through the Red Sea because of increasingly frequent attacks on ships in the region.  The attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East are forcing shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting crude oil supplies.  At least fourteen merchant ships have been attacked or approached around Yemen by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in the Red Sea since Israel’s war with Hamas broke out in October.  A supportive factor for crude was last Monday’s projection from the American Automobile Association (AAA) that a record 7.5 million people are expected to fly from Dec 23 to Jan 2, the most since the AAA began tracking the data in 2000.

Crude prices last Tuesday plunged to a 5-3/4 month low as an increase in Russian crude exports undercut oil prices.  Tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg shows refined fuel shipments climbed to 3.2 million bpd in the four weeks to Dec 10, up +114,000 bpd from the prior week and the highest five months.

On Nov 30, OPEC+ agreed to cut crude production by -1.0 million bpd through June 2024.  However, crude prices sold off on the news since no details were provided on how the cuts would be distributed among members nor how Russia’s -300,000 bpd export cut would factor into the new totals.  Delegates said the final details of the new accord, including national production levels, would be announced individually by each country rather than in the customary OPEC+ communique.  The market was disappointed that the extra cuts in OPEC crude output will be announced by each individual country, which suggests the reductions may only be voluntary. Saudi Arabia said on Nov 30 that it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through Q1-2024.  The move would maintain Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Russia also said it will deepen its voluntary oil export cuts by 200,000 bpd to 500,000 bpd in Q1 of 2024.  OPEC Nov crude production fell -140,000 bpd to 28.050 million bpd. The rift between Angola and other OPEC+ members remains and is a bearish factor that signals more infighting among members.  Angola OPEC governor Pedro said on Nov 30 that his country rejects OPEC’s quota and “Angola will produce above the quota determined by OPEC.”  Angola is Africa’s second-largest crude producer, and OPEC governor Pedro said his country will pump 1.18 million bpd in January, above the 1.11 million quota set out by OPEC.

Weak demand for crude in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, is bearish for prices.  China’s crude imports were 42.45 MMT, down -13% m/m from Oct and a 7-month low.  A decline in crude in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -13% w/w to 73.32 million bbl as of Dec 15. The consensus is that Wednesday’s weekly EIA crude inventories will fall by -2.3 million bbl.

Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Dec 8 were -2.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -12.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ending Dec 8 was unchanged w/w to 13.1 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.2 million bpd the week ending Nov 24.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Dec 15 fell by -2 rigs to 501 rigs, modestly above the 1-3/4 year low of 494 rigs from Nov 10.  The number of U.S. oil rigs has fallen this year after moving sharply higher during 2021-22 from the 18-year pandemic low of 172 rigs posted in Aug 2020 to a 3-1/2 year high of 627 rigs in December 2022.

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE  

DEC 21 Out Late Afternoon

DEC 22 Out All Day

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 31-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED” today/tonight~Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 72.47 UP $1.0400

NYMEX ULSD     $2.6728 UP $0.0520

NYMEX Gas       $2.1590 UP $0.0220

NEWS

January WTI crude oil on Monday closed up +1.04 (+1.46%), and Jan RBOB gasoline closed up +2.20 (+1.03%). Crude oil and gasoline prices Monday climbed to 2-week highs and closed moderately higher.  The main bullish factor for crude oil Monday is geopolitical risks after several major oil shippers stopped shipping crude oil through the Red Sea because of attacks on ships in the region.  Also, Monday’s rally in the S&P 500 to a 23-month high shows confidence in the economic outlook that supports energy demand and crude prices.

Geopolitical risks are bullish for crude prices after BP joined Equinor and Euronav in halting crude oil shipments on tankers through the Red Sea because of increasingly frequent attacks on ships in the region.  The attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East are forcing shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting crude oil supplies.  At least fourteen merchant ships have been attacked or approached around Yemen by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in the Red Sea since Israel’s war with Hamas broke out in October.

Strength in the crude crack spread is supportive of crude prices.  The crack spread on Monday climbed to a 2-1/2 month high, encouraging refiners to boost their crude purchases and refine the crude into gasoline and distillates. A supportive factor for crude was last Monday’s projection from the American Automobile Association (AAA) that a record 7.5 million people are expected to fly from Dec 23 to Jan 2, the most since the AAA began tracking the data in 2000. Crude prices last Tuesday plunged to a 5-3/4 month low as an increase in Russian crude exports undercut oil prices.  Tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg shows refined fuel shipments climbed to 3.2 million bpd in the four weeks to Dec 10, up +114,000 bpd from the prior week and the highest five months.

On Nov 30, OPEC+ agreed to cut crude production by -1.0 million bpd through June 2024.  However, crude prices sold off on the news since no details were provided on how the cuts would be distributed among members nor how Russia’s -300,000 bpd export cut would factor into the new totals.  Delegates said the final details of the new accord, including national production levels, would be announced individually by each country rather than in the customary OPEC+ communique.  The market was disappointed that the extra cuts in OPEC crude output will be announced by each individual country, which suggests the reductions may only be voluntary. Saudi Arabia said on Nov 30 that it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through Q1-2024.  The move would maintain Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Russia also said it will deepen its voluntary oil export cuts by 200,000 bpd to 500,000 bpd in Q1 of 2024.  OPEC Nov crude production fell -140,000 bpd to 28.050 million bpd. The rift between Angola and other OPEC+ members remains and is a bearish factor that signals more infighting among members.  Angola OPEC governor Pedro said on Nov 30 that his country rejects OPEC’s quota and “Angola will produce above the quota determined by OPEC.”  Angola is Africa’s second-largest crude producer, and OPEC governor Pedro said his country will pump 1.18 million bpd in January, above the 1.11 million quota set out by OPEC.

Weak demand for crude in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, is bearish for prices.  China’s crude imports were 42.45 MMT, down -13% m/m from Oct and a 7-month low.  

A decline in crude in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -13% w/w to 73.32 million bbl as of Dec 15.

Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Dec 8 were -2.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -12.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ending Dec 8 was unchanged w/w to 13.1 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.2 million bpd the week ending Nov 24.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Dec 15 fell by -2 rigs to 501 rigs, modestly above the 1-3/4 year low of 494 rigs from Nov 10.  The number of U.S. oil rigs has fallen this year after moving sharply higher during 2021-22 from the 18-year pandemic low of 172 rigs posted in Aug 2020 to a 3-1/2 year high of 627 rigs in December 2022.

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE  

DEC 21 Out Late Afternoon

DEC 22 Out All Day

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 31-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS FULL OF FUEL” today/tonight, Prices will go UP 4.5 Cents Saturday then Sunday look for a 3 cent jump UP~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 71.43 DN $.1500

NYMEX ULSD     $2.6208 UP $.0295

NYMEX Gas       $2.1370 UP $.0182

NEWS

January WTI crude oil on Friday closed down -0.15 (-0.21%), and Jan RBOB gasoline closed up +1.82 (+0.86%). Crude oil and gasoline prices Friday settled mixed, with gasoline posting a 1-week high.  A stronger dollar on Friday undercut commodity prices, including crude.  Also, weaker-than-expected global manufacturing news signaled slack energy demand that was negative for crude oil prices.  In addition, hawkish comments Friday from New York Fed President Williams dampened speculation about Fed rate cuts and weighed on asset markets when he said it’s too early to think about cutting interest rates.

Friday’s weaker-than-expected global manufacturing news was bearish for energy demand and crude oil prices.  The U.S. Dec S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -1.2 to 48.2, weaker than expectations of an increase to 49.5 and the steepest pace of contraction in 4 months.  Also, the Eurozone Dec S&P manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 44.2, weaker than expectations of an increase to 44.6.  In addition, the Japan Dec Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI fell -0.6 to 47.7, the weakest level in 10 months

.

Strength in the crude crack spread is supportive of crude prices.  The crack spread Friday rose to a 2-1/2 month high, encouraging refiners to boost their crude purchases and refine the crude into gasoline and distillates. A supportive factor for crude was Monday’s projection from the American Automobile Association (AAA) that a record 7.5 million people are expected to fly from Dec 23 to Jan 2, the most since the AAA began tracking the data in 2000.  A positive factor for crude was the U.S. Energy Department’s offer last Friday to buy as much as 3 million bbl of sour crude for delivery in March to refill the strategic petroleum reserve.  That comes on top of a previous tender to buy the same amount for February.  The Energy Department said it will hold monthly tenders to buy oil to refill the reserve through at least May 2024.

Crude prices Tuesday plunged to a 5-1/2 month low as an increase in Russian crude exports undercut oil prices.  Tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg shows refined fuel shipments climbed to 3.2 million bpd in the four weeks to Dec 10, up +114,000 bpd from the prior week and the highest five months. On Nov 30, OPEC+ agreed to cut crude production by -1.0 million bpd through June 2024.  However, crude prices sold off on the news since no details were provided on how the cuts would be distributed among members nor how Russia’s -300,000 bpd export cut would factor into the new totals.  Delegates said the final details of the new accord, including national production levels, would be announced individually by each country rather than in the customary OPEC+ communique.  The market was disappointed that the extra cuts in OPEC crude output will be announced by each individual country, which suggests the reductions may only be voluntary. Saudi Arabia said on Nov 30 that it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through Q1-2024.  

The move would maintain Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Russia also said it will deepen its voluntary oil export cuts by 200,000 bpd to 500,000 bpd in Q1 of 2024.  OPEC Nov crude production fell -140,000 bpd to 28.050 million bpd. The rift between Angola and other OPEC+ members remains and is a bearish factor that signals more infighting among members.  Angola OPEC governor Pedro said on Nov 30 that his country rejects OPEC’s quota and “Angola will produce above the quota determined by OPEC.”  Angola is Africa’s second-largest crude producer, and OPEC governor Pedro said his country will pump 1.18 million bpd in January, above the 1.11 million quota set out by OPEC. Oil prices are supported by concern that attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East may disrupt crude oil supplies.  At least twelve merchant ships have been attacked or approached around Yemen by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in the Red Sea since Israel’s war with Hamas broke out in October.  

An increase in crude in floating storage is bearish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +11% w/w to 79.87 million bbl as of Dec 8.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Dec 8 were -2.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -12.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ending Dec 8 was unchanged w/w to 13.1 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.2 million bpd the week ending Nov 24.

Baker Hughes reported Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Dec 15 fell by -2 rigs to 501 rigs, modestly above the 1-3/4 year low of 494 rigs from Nov 10.  The number of U.S. oil rigs has fallen this year after moving sharply higher during 2021-22 from the 18-year pandemic low of 172 rigs posted in Aug 2020 to a 3-1/2 year high of 627 rigs in December 2022.

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE  

DEC 21 Out Late Afternoon

DEC 22 Out All Day

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 31-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “MAKE SURE YOUR TANKS ARE FULL OF FUEL” before 23:00 CST tonight, Friday prices will go back UP 4 Cents ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 71.58 UP $2.1100

NYMEX ULSD     $2.5913 UP $0.0432

NYMEX Gas       $2.1188 UP $0.0939

NEWS

January WTI crude oil on Thursday closed up +2.11 (+3.04%), and Jan RBOB gasoline closed up +9.39 (+4.64%). Crude oil and gasoline prices Thursday posted 1-week highs and settled sharply higher.  Thursday’s slump in the dollar index to a 4-¼ month low is bullish for energy prices.  Also, a perceived pivot in Fed policy to cutting interest rates has sparked demand for risk assets, including crude oil.  In addition, Thursday’s rally in stocks shows confidence in the economic outlook that supports energy demand and crude prices.

Thursday’s stronger-than-expected global economic news supports energy demand and crude prices.  U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -19,000 to an 8-week low of 202,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of no change at 220,000.  Also, Nov retail sales unexpectedly rose +0.3% m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m.  In addition, Japan Oct core machine orders unexpectedly rose +0.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.4% m/m.  Finally, Japan Oct industrial production was revised upward by +0.3 to +1.3% m/m from the initially reported +1.0% m/m.

A supportive factor for crude was Monday’s projection from the American Automobile Association (AAA) that a record 7.5 million people are expected to fly from Dec 23 to Jan 2, the most since the AAA began tracking the data in 2000.  A positive factor for crude was the U.S. Energy Department’s offer last Friday to buy as much as 3 million bbl of sour crude for delivery in March to refill the strategic petroleum reserve.  That comes on top of a previous tender to buy the same amount for February.  The Energy Department said it will hold monthly tenders to buy oil to refill the reserve through at least May 2024.

Crude price Tuesday plunged to a 5-1/2 month low as an increase in Russian crude exports undercut oil prices.  Tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg shows refined fuel shipments climbed to 3.2 million bpd in the four weeks to Dec 10, up +114,000 bpd from the prior week and the highest five months.

On Nov 30, OPEC+ agreed to cut crude production by -1.0 million bpd through June 2024.  However, crude prices sold off on the news since no details were provided on how the cuts would be distributed among members nor how Russia’s -300,000 bpd export cut would factor into the new totals.  Delegates said the final details of the new accord, including national production levels, would be announced individually by each country rather than in the customary OPEC+ communique.  The market was disappointed that the extra cuts in OPEC crude output will be announced by each individual country, which suggests the reductions may only be voluntary.

Saudi Arabia said on Nov 30 that it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through Q1-2024.  The move would maintain Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Russia also said it will deepen its voluntary oil export cuts by 200,000 bpd to 500,000 bpd in Q1 of 2024.  OPEC Nov crude production fell -140,000 bpd to 28.050 million bpd. The rift between Angola and other OPEC+ members remains and is a bearish factor that signals more infighting among members.  Angola OPEC governor Pedro said on Nov 30 that his country rejects OPEC’s quota and “Angola will produce above the quota determined by OPEC.”  Angola is Africa’s second-largest crude producer, and OPEC governor Pedro said his country will pump 1.18 million bpd in January, above the 1.11 million quota set out by OPEC. Oil prices are supported by concern that attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East may disrupt crude oil supplies.  At least ten merchant ships have been attacked or approached around Yemen by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in the Red Sea since Israel’s war with Hamas broke out in October.  

An increase in crude in floating storage is bearish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +11% w/w to 79.87 million bbl as of Dec 8.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Dec 8 were -2.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -12.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ending Dec 8 was unchanged w/w to 13.1 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.2 million bpd the week ending Nov 24.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Dec 8 fell by -2 rigs to 503 rigs, modestly above the 1-3/4 year low of 494 rigs from Nov 10.  The number of U.S. oil rigs has fallen this year after moving sharply higher during 2021-22 from the 18-year pandemic low of 172 rigs posted in Aug 2020 to a 3-1/2 year high of 627 rigs in December 2022.

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE  

DEC 21 Out Late Afternoon

DEC 22 Out All Day

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 31-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY” today/tonight, Thursday prices will DROP 10 CENTS~Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 69.47 UP $.8600

NYMEX ULSD     $2.5481 UP $.0407

NYMEX Gas       $2.0249 UP $.0452

NEWS

January WTI crude oil on Wednesday closed up +0.86 (+1.25%), and Jan RBOB gasoline closed up +4.52 (+2.78%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday recovered from early losses and closed moderately higher after weekly EIA crude inventories fell more than expected.   A weaker dollar Wednesday also supported gains in crude.  Energy prices Wednesday initially extended Tuesday’s sharp losses, with crude posting a 5-1/2 month low and gasoline posting a 2-year low as signs of stronger Russian crude exports exacerbated oversupply concerns.  An increase in Russian crude exports is bearish for oil prices.  Tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg shows refined fuel shipments climbed to 3.2 million bpd in the four weeks to Dec 10, up +114,000 bpd from the prior week and the highest five months.

A supportive factor for crude was Monday’s projection from the American Automobile Association (AAA) that a record 7.5 million people are expected to fly from Dec 23 to Jan 2, the most since the AAA began tracking the data in 2000.  

A positive factor for crude was the U.S. Energy Department’s offer last Friday to buy as much as 3 million bbl of sour crude for delivery in March to refill the strategic petroleum reserve.  That comes on top of a previous tender to buy the same amount for February.  The Energy Department said it will hold monthly tenders to buy oil to refill the reserve through at least May 2024. On Nov 30, OPEC+ agreed to cut crude production by -1.0 million bpd through June 2024.  However, crude prices sold off on the news since no details were provided on how the cuts would be distributed among members nor how Russia’s -300,000 bpd export cut would factor into the new totals.  Delegates said the final details of the new accord, including national production levels, would be announced individually by each country rather than in the customary OPEC+ communique.  The market was disappointed that the extra cuts in OPEC crude output will be announced by each individual country, which suggests the reductions may only be voluntary.

Saudi Arabia said on Nov 30 that it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through Q1-2024.  The move would maintain Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Russia also said it will deepen its voluntary oil export cuts by 200,000 bpd to 500,000 bpd in Q1 of 2024.  OPEC Nov crude production fell -140,000 bpd to 28.050 million bpd. The rift between Angola and other OPEC+ members remains and is a bearish factor that signals more infighting among members.  Angola OPEC governor Pedro said on Nov 30 that his country rejects OPEC’s quota and “Angola will produce above the quota determined by OPEC.”  Angola is Africa’s second-largest crude producer, and OPEC governor Pedro said his country will pump 1.18 million bpd in January, above the 1.11 million quota set out by OPEC. Oil prices are supported by concern that attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East may disrupt crude oil supplies.  At least ten merchant ships have been attacked or approached around Yemen by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in the Red Sea since Israel’s war with Hamas broke out in October.

An increase in crude in floating storage is bearish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +11% w/w to 79.87 million bbl as of Dec 8.

Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was mixed for crude prices.  On the bullish side, EIA crude inventories fell -4.26 million bbl, a larger draw than expectations of -2.0 million bbl.  Also, EIA gasoline supplies rose +409,000 bbl, a smaller build than expectations of +1.9 million bbl.  On the bearish side, EIA distillate stockpiles unexpectedly rose +1.49 million bbl versus expectations of a -193,000 bbl draw.  Also, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, rose +1.23 million bbl. Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Dec 8 were -2.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -12.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ending Dec 8 was unchanged w/w to 13.1 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.2 million bpd the week ending Nov 24.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Dec 8 fell by -2 rigs to 503 rigs, modestly above the 1-3/4 year low of 494 rigs from Nov 10.  The number of U.S. oil rigs has fallen this year after moving sharply higher during 2021-22 from the 18-year pandemic low of 172 rigs posted in Aug 2020 to a 3-1/2 year high of 627 rigs in December 2022.

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE  

DEC 21 Out Late Afternoon

DEC 22 Out All Day

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 31-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED” today/tonight~Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 71.32 UP $.0900

NYMEX ULSD     $2.6087 UP $.0277

NYMEX Gas       $2.0431 DN $.0067

NEWS

January WTI crude oil on Monday closed up +0.09 (+0.13%), and Jan RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0067 (-0.33%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday settled mixed.  Crude prices Monday recovered from early losses and posted modest gains after the AAA predicted a record number of air travelers during Christmas week, a positive for fuel demand.  A stronger dollar limited gains in crude.  Also, weaker-than-expected price reports from China signaled weakness in the Chinese economy that is negative for energy demand and crude prices.

Crude prices found support Monday after the American Automobile Association (AAA)  projected a record 7.5 million people are expected to fly from Dec 23 to Jan 2, the most since the AAA began tracking the data in 2000. Weaker-than-expected Chinese consumer and producer prices signaled weakness in China’s economy, which was bearish for energy demand and crude oil prices.  China’s Nov CPI fell -0.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.2% y/y and the biggest decline in 3 years.  China’s Nov PPI fell -3.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of -2.8% y/y.

A positive factor for crude was the U.S. Energy Department’s offer last Friday to buy as much as 3 million bbl of sour crude for delivery in March to refill the strategic petroleum reserve.  That comes on top of a previous tender to buy the same amount for February.  The Energy Department said it will hold monthly tenders to buy oil to refill the reserve through at least May 2024. Signs of increasing U.S. crude exports are negative for prices as ship-tracking firms Kpler and Vortexa project that U.S. crude exports will soon reach a record 5.7 million bpd. A bearish factor for crude was last Tuesday’s action by Saudi Arabia to cut the price of its flagship Arab light crude to Asian customers for January delivery by 50 cents to $3.50 a barrel more than the benchmark, the first cut in prices since June but below expectations of a -$1.05 a barrel cut in prices.

On Nov 30, OPEC+ agreed to cut crude production by -1.0 million bpd through June 2024.  However, crude prices sold off on the news since no details were provided on how the cuts would be distributed among members nor how Russia’s -300,000 bpd export cut would factor into the new totals.  Delegates said the final details of the new accord, including national production levels, would be announced individually by each country rather than in the customary OPEC+ communique.  The market was disappointed that the extra cuts in OPEC crude output will be announced by each individual country, which suggests the reductions may only be voluntary.

Saudi Arabia said on Nov 30 that it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through Q1-2024.  The move would maintain Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Russia also said it will deepen its voluntary oil export cuts by 200,000 bpd to 500,000 bpd in Q1 of 2024.  OPEC Nov crude production fell -140,000 bpd to 28.050 million bpd.

The rift between Angola and other OPEC+ members remains and is a bearish factor that signals more infighting among members.  Angola OPEC governor Pedro said on Nov 30 that his country rejects OPEC’s quota and “Angola will produce above the quota determined by OPEC.”  Angola is Africa’s second-largest crude producer, and OPEC governor Pedro said his country will pump 1.18 million bpd in January, above the 1.11 million quota set out by OPEC.

Oil prices are supported by concern that attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East may disrupt crude oil supplies.  The U.S. Central Command said there were four attacks by missiles and drones against three separate commercial vessels on Sunday operating in international waters in the Red Sea.  Iranian-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for the attacks after they issued a threat against ships with ties to Israel last month, calling them “legitimate targets.”

An increase in crude in floating storage is bearish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +11% w/w to 79.87 million bbl as of Dec 8.

An increase in Russian crude exports is bearish for oil prices.  Tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg shows refined fuel shipments climbed to 2.2 million bpd in November, roughly +164,000 bpd higher than in October.

Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Dec 1 were right on the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -0.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -11.6% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ending Dec 1 fell -0.8% m/m to 13.1 million bpd, just below the previous week’s record high of 13.2 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Dec 8 fell by -2 rigs to 503 rigs, modestly above the 1-3/4 year low of 494 rigs from Nov 10.  The number of U.S. oil rigs has fallen this year after moving sharply higher during 2021-22 from the 18-year pandemic low of 172 rigs posted in Aug 2020 to a 3-1/2 year high of 627 rigs in December 2022.

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE  

DEC 01 Out Late Afternoon

DEC 21 Out Late Afternoon

DEC 22 Out All Day

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 31-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams

Fueling Strategy: Please “FULL AS NEEDED” today/tonight, Prices are down today 2 cents BUT Friday prices will DROP another 6.5 Cents ~ Be Safe

NMEX Crude      $ 69.34 DN $.0400

NYMEX ULSD     $2.5492 DN $.0270

NYMEX Gas       $2.0012 DN $.0290

NEWS

January WTI crude oil on Thursday closed down -0.04 (-0.06%), and Jan RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0190 (-1.43%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday extended Wednesday’s sharp losses, with crude oil falling to a 5-1/4 month low and gasoline falling to a 1-year low.   Concern about excess global crude supplies continues to weigh on oil prices.  Also, doubts about whether OPEC+ crude production cuts will be adhered to are bearish for prices.  Losses in crude Thursday were limited by a weak dollar.

Thursday’s global economic news was weaker than expected and was bearish for crude demand and prices.  U.S. Oct wholesale trade sales unexpectedly fell -1.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +1.0% m/m and the biggest decline in 7 months.  Also, German Oct industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m. Signs of increasing U.S. crude exports are negative for prices as ship-tracking firms Kpler and Vortexa project that U.S. crude exports will soon reach a record 5.7 million bpd.

A bearish factor for crude was Tuesday’s action by Saudi Arabia to cut the price of its flagship Arab light crude to Asian customers for January delivery by 50 cents to $3.50 a barrel more than the benchmark, the first cut in prices since June but below expectations of a -$1.05 a barrel cut in prices. Last Thursday, OPEC+ agreed to cut crude production by -1.0 million bpd through June 2024.  However, crude prices sold off on the news since no details were provided on how the cuts would be distributed among members nor how Russia’s -300,000 bpd export cut would factor into the new totals.  Delegates said the final details of the new accord, including national production levels, would be announced individually by each country rather than in the customary OPEC+ communique.  The market was disappointed that the extra cuts in OPEC crude output will be announced by each individual country, which suggests the cuts may only be voluntary. Saudi Arabia said last Thursday it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through Q1-2024.  The move would maintain Saudi Arabia’s crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years.  Russia also said last Thursday that it will deepen its voluntary oil export cuts by 200,000 bpd to 500,000 bpd in Q1 of 2024.  OPEC Nov crude production fell -140,000 bpd to 28.050 million bpd.

The rift between Angola and other OPEC+ members remains and is a bearish factor that signals more infighting among members.  Angola OPEC governor Pedro said last Thursday that his country rejects OPEC’s quota and “Angola will produce above the quota determined by OPEC.”  Angola is Africa’s second-largest crude producer, and OPEC governor Pedro said his country will pump 1.18 million bpd in January, above the 1.11 million quota set out by OPEC.

A supportive factor for crude was Tuesday’s comment from Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak, who said, “In case the current actions are not enough, OPEC+ countries will take additional steps to avoid speculations and volatility.” On Monday, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said Saudi Arabia’s crude production curbs could “absolutely” continue past March of next year.

Oil prices are supported by concern that attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East may disrupt crude oil supplies.  The U.S. Central Command said there were four attacks by missiles and drones against three separate commercial vessels on Sunday operating in international waters in the Red Sea.  Iranian-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for the attacks after they issued a threat against ships with ties to Israel last month, calling them “legitimate targets.”

A decline in crude in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -24% w/w to 68.62 million bbl as of Dec 1. An increase in Russian crude exports is bearish for oil prices.  Tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg shows refined fuel shipments climbed to 2.2 million bpd in November, roughly +164,000 bpd higher than in October.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Dec 1 were right on the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -0.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -11.6% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ending Dec 1 fell -0.8% m/m to 13.1 million bpd, just below the previous week’s record high of 13.2 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Dec 1 rose by +5 rigs to 505 rigs, modestly above the 1-3/4 year low of 494 rigs from Nov 10.  The number of U.S. oil rigs has fallen this year after moving sharply higher during 2021-22 from the 18-year pandemic low of 172 rigs posted in Aug 2020 to a 3-1/2 year high of 627 rigs in December 2022.

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

Office: 479-846-2761

Cell: 479-790-5581

SCHEDULED OUT OF OFFICE  

DEC 01 Out Late Afternoon

DEC 21 Out Late Afternoon

DEC 22 Out All Day

Tell Us How We’re Doing On Google Business

https://g.page/r/CUyL9wDolv04EAI/review

As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!

“Celebrating 31-years of Service Excellence”

www.FuelManagerServices.com

“To give real service you must add something which cannot be bought or measured with money, and that is sincerity and integrity.” ~ Douglas Adams