Fueling Strategy: Please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY TODAY/TONIGHT OR BETTER YET WAIT TO FUEL UNTIL THURSDAY AM” Prices will go DOWN 3.5 Cents Thursday Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 70.08 DN $.6300
NYMEX ULSD $2.2279 DN $.0361
NYMEX Gas $1.9439 DN $.0318
NEWS
The February WTI trading session settled at 70.08 (-.63), a high of 70.54, a low of 68.81. Cash price is at 70.58 (-0.51), while open interest for CLG25 is at 321,009. CLG25 settled below its 5 day (70.08), below its 20 day (68.92), above its 50 day (69.37), below its 100 day (69.87), below its 200 day (72.84) and below its year-to-date (72.59) moving averages. The COT report (Futures and Options Summary) as of 12/10 showed commercials with a net short position of -227,239 (a decrease in short positions by +10,313 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +214,911 (a decrease in long positions by -12,938 from the previous week).
Fresh data from the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors showed November U.S. industrial production decreased by 0.1% in November compared to October, and is lower 0.9% than November of 2023. Manufacturing output increased by 0.2% in November compared to October, but was lower by 1% than November of 2023. Utilities were down 1.3% compared to October. According to Census Bureau data, U.S. retail sales beat their forecast, rising by 0.7% in November. October retail sales were revised upward to a 0.5% increase, previously it was 0.4% for October. The Fed met today and will meet again tomorrow where they are expected to cut rates again by 25 basis points. As of this morning the CME’s Fedwatch tool pegs it at a 95.4% chance, all but certain. All three major American stock indexes closed lower, with the Dow having its 9th consecutive negative day, something which hasn’t happened since 1978. The Dollar Index (DYX) closed higher by 0.08%.
Bloomberg reported that tanker-tracking data showed Russia’s seaborne crude exports fell by 11% over the last four weeks. Last month both the UK and EU put sanctions on Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” of crude oil tankers. Last Friday U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen mentioned the Biden Administration is also considering putting on similar sanctions on the said shadow fleet of Russian oil tankers.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics released data showing China’s retail sales growth in November dipping deeper than expected at 3% year-over-year against a forecast of 5% and below October’s 4.8%. However, China’s November industrial production came in higher than its forecast, hitting 5.4% year-over-year against a forecast of 5.3%. Reuters reported that China’s November crude oil imports hit a fourteen-month high, showing a surplus of roughly 1.77 million barrels per day, with an average import of 11.81 million barrels per day. The National Bureau of Statistics said China’s oil refineries processed about 14.24 million barrels per day, up 0.2% year-over-year. China’s crude oil imports grew in November for the first time in seven months, registering a +14% year-over-year increase Reuters reported, citing customs data. In November China was shown to have imported and produced roughly 1.77 million barrels per day more than it consumed. Last week China’s Politburo signaled it is planning to expand fiscal spending and have its first monetary easing since 2010, according to the official state Xinhua News Agency. The group said China will hit their target growth for 2024 of “around 5%”, with 2025 expected to be slightly higher than this year. China signaled they were considering allowing the yuan to weaken next year to offset the impact of the potential trade war with the Trump Administration. Leaders at China’s Central Economic Work Conference also mentioned they could increase their budget deficit to 4% of their GDP and increase debt issuance at the local and central government levels, while also hinting at cutting interest rates. The National People’s Congress standing committee meeting is set to be held in late December. The Shanghai based CSI 300 Index closed higher by 0.26%.
Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT”, Sunday prices will go UP 3 Cents ~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 71.29 UP $1.2700
NYMEX ULSD $2.2664 UP $0.0298
NYMEX Gas $2.0018 UP $0.0133
NEWS
January WTI crude oil Friday closed up +1.27 (+1.81%), and January RBOB gasoline closed up +0.0133 (+0.67%). Crude oil and gasoline prices Friday rallied to 2-1/2 week highs and settled higher. The prospects for additional sanctions on Russian and Iranian crude supplies pushed oil prices higher Friday. Also, Russia ramped up air attacks on Ukraine’s power infrastructure, further escalating hostilities. Friday’s rally in the dollar index to a 2-1/2 week high limited gains in crude prices.
The outlook for new sanctions on Iranian and Russian crude exports could limit global oil supplies and is bullish for prices. Mike Walz, President-elect Trump’s pick for national security adviser, vowed a return to “maximum pressure” on Iran, and the Biden administration said it is considering new, harsher sanctions on Russian crude oil. Crude prices found support Thursday from a Times of Israel report that said Israel’s military sees the fall of Syria’s regime as an opportunity to carry out a strike on Iran, which could widen the conflict in the Middle East and threaten crude supplies from the region.
Friday’s action by the Bundesbank to cut its German 2024 GDP estimate to -0.2% from a prior estimate of +0.3% signals weakness in energy demand and is bearish for crude prices. Thursday’s monthly report from the IEA was bearish for crude as the report said global oil markets would be oversupplied by 1.4 million bpd if OPEC+ proceeds with plans to revive crude output starting in April and even if OPEC+ cancels next year’s production hikes entirely, there will still be a supply glut of 950,000 bpd. Oil prices are seeing support from the promise of additional stimulus measures in China. The Chinese Politburo, the ruling Communist Party’s most senior 24 officials led by President Xi Jinping, announced on Monday that it would embrace a “moderately loose” strategy for monetary policy next year and vowed to be “more proactive” on fiscal policy, a sign of further easing ahead.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -12% w/w to 62.74 million bbl in the week ended December 6. Crude found support last Thursday after OPEC+ pushed back a planned hike of its crude production by +180,000 bpd from January to April and said it would unwind its crude output cuts at a slower pace than planned. Also, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said it will delay the planned 300,000 bpd increase in its crude production target from January to April. OPEC+ had previously agreed to restore 2.2 million bpd of output in monthly installments between January and late 2025. However, that is now pushed back until September 2026. OPEC Nov crude production rose +120,000 bpd to 27.02 million bpd.
Escalation of the Ukraine-Russian war is supportive of crude prices. Russia launched a new hypersonic missile into the city of Dnipro late last month, following Ukraine’s expanded use of Western-provided long-range missiles against targets inside Russia. Also, Russian President Putin warned that Russia could strike “decision-making centers” in Kyiv with ballistic missiles. Last week, Putin also approved an updated nuclear doctrine that expands the conditions for Russia to use nuclear weapons, including in response to a conventional attack on its soil.
Crude demand in China has weakened and is a bearish factor for oil prices. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, China’s Oct apparent oil demand fell -5.4% y/y to 14.07 million bpd, and Jan-Oct apparent oil demand was down -4.03% y/y to 14.00 million bpd. China is the world’s second-largest crude consumer. An increase in Russian crude exports is bearish for crude. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports rose by +570,000 bpd to 3.36 million bpd in the week to December 1.
Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of December 6 were -6.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -3.6% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -4.5% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending December 6 rose +0.9% w/w to a record 13.631 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending December 13 were unchanged at 482 rigs, modestly above last month’s 2-3/4 year low of 477 rigs. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past two years from the 4-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT”, Friday prices will go UP4 Cents ~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 70.02 DN $.2700
NYMEX ULSD $2.2380 UP $.0147
NYMEX Gas $1.9885 UP $.0027
NEWS
January WTI crude oil Thursday closed down -0.27, and January RBOB gasoline closed up +0.0027 (+0.14%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices Thursday fell back from 2-1/2 week highs and settled mixed. Thursday’s rally in the dollar index to a 2-week high weighed on energy prices. Also, Thursday’s monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) was bearish for crude as the IEA projects a global oil glut next year.
Crude price retreated Thursday after the IEA said global oil markets would be oversupplied by 1.4 million bpd if OPEC+ proceeds with plans to revive crude output starting in April, and even if OPEC+ cancels next year’s production hikes entirely, there will still be a supply glut of 950,000 bpd.
Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED TODAY/TONIGHT”,Prices are DOWN 1.25 Cents Today, Sunday prices will go DOWN another 3 Cents~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 67.20 DN $1.1000
NYMEX ULSD $2.1326 DN $0.0231
NYMEX Gas $1.9062 DN $0.0263
NEWSJ
January WTI crude oil closed down -1.10 and January RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0263.
Crude oil and gasoline prices today are moderately lower, with crude posting a 2-1/2 week low and gasoline posting a 2-month low. A stronger dollar today is bearish for energy prices. Crude prices are also under pressure from a report from Macquarie Group that projects a “heavy surplus” next year of more than 1 million bpd as non-OPEC supply growth makes up for any supply restraints from OPEC+. Limiting losses in crude was better-than-expected US economic reports on Nov payrolls and Dec consumer sentiment, supportive factors for energy demand.
Today’s global economic news was mixed for crude prices. On the negative side, the US Nov unemployment rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to 4.2%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 4.1%. Also, German Oct industrial production unexpectedly fell -1.0% m/m, weaker than expectations of +1.0% m/m. Conversely, US Nov nonfarm payrolls rose +227,000 stronger than expectations of +220,000. Also, the University of Michigan US Dec consumer sentiment index rose +2.2 to an 8-month high of 74.0, stronger than expectations of 73.2.
