Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT, Wednesday prices will go UP 8 Cents ~ Be Safe Today
NYEX Crude $ 84.13 UP $.7500
NYMEX ULSD $2.6147 UP $.0816
NYMEX Gas $2.5783 UP $.0768
NEWS
Crude oil and gasoline prices Monday rallied, with crude climbing to a 2-month high. The outlook for declining US crude output is propping up oil prices after last Friday’s weekly report from Baker Hughes showed that active US oil rigs fell to a 2-1/2 year low. Also, heightened tensions in the Middle East are giving crude prices a boost, with Israel close to a full-blown war with Hezbollah in Lebanon and with Houthi rebels in Yemen stepping up their attacks on commercial shipping in the region.
Monday’s global economic news was mostly positive for energy demand and crude prices. On the positive side, the China Jun non-manufacturing PMI fell -0.6 to 50.5, weaker than expectations of 51.0 and the slowest pace of expansion in 6 months. Also, the Eurozone Jun S&P manufacturing PMI was revised upward by 0.2 to 45.8 from the previously reported 45.6. In addition, the Japan Q2 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions rose +2 to 13, stronger than expectations of no change at 11. On the negative side, the Jun ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell 0.2 to a 4-month low of 48.5, weaker than expectations of an increase to 49.1.
Crude oil prices have underlying support from concern about the escalation of the Hamas-Israel conflict. Israel’s military continues to conduct operations in Gaza, and there is also concern that the war might spread to Hezbollah in Lebanon or even to a direct conflict with Iran as hostilities escalate between Israel and Hezbollah. Meanwhile, ongoing attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have forced shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting global crude oil supplies.
A decline in crude oil in floating storage is bullish for prices. Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -24% w/w to 73.29 million bbl as of June 28.
OPEC+ rolled out a plan to restore some crude production in Q4, which sparked worries about a glut in global oil supplies. OPEC+, on June 2, extended the 2 million bpd of voluntary crude production cuts into Q3 but said they would gradually phase out the cuts over the following 12 months, beginning in October. OPEC pledged to extend its crude production cap at about 39 million bpd to the end of 2025. Also, the UAE was given a 300,000 bpd boost to its production target for 2025.
A decrease in OPEC crude output is positive for oil prices. OPEC June crude production fell -80,000 bpd to 26.98 million bpd.
