Market Close: Nov 20 Up
Nov 20th, 2020 by loren
Nov 20th, 2020 by loren
Nov 19th, 2020 by loren
Oil futures edged lower Thursday, with U.S. prices posting their first loss in four sessions, as a persistent rise in COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and around the world highlighted worries about crude demand, overshadowing positive news on the vaccine front.
Concerns about unity within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also pressured prices, analysts said. Natural-gas futures, meanwhile, suffered the largest losses on Nymex Thursday, after the U.S. government reported a larger-than-expected weekly increase in domestic supplies of the fuel.
The front month December West Texas Intermediate crude which expires at Friday’s settlement, fell 8 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $41.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The U.S. benchmark had posted gains in each of the last three sessions. January WTI crude the most actively traded contract, declined by 11 cents, or 0.3%, at $41.90 a barrel. January Brent crude the global benchmark, lost 14 cents, or 0.3%, at $44.20 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Both benchmarks on Wednesday settled at the highest levels since early September. But analysts said new lockdowns in response to rising COVID-19 cases weighed on markets. New York City on Wednesday announced the closure of all public schools after the city’s positivity rate from virus tests reached a seven-day average of 3% — the threshold set to keep schools open.
The move comes as cases rise across much of the country, including rural and urban areas, putting strains on hospital systems. “The U.S. has seen a significant uptick in new restrictions across various states this week, with virus cases setting records ahead of the traditional holiday travel season,” said Robbie Fraser, manager of global research and analytics at Schneider Electric, in a note. “There is little question that holiday travel will be far below normal levels this year, though exactly how far below remains subject for debate,” he said. A week ahead of Thanksgiving, experts estimate as much as a 45% drop in the number of holiday travelers compared with last year, even with Americans expected to pay the lowest gasoline prices for the season since 2016.
On a more upbeat note, reports on Thursday afternoon indicated that talks in the U.S. about a coronavirus aid package may soon resume, with CNBC quoting Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, the chambers top Democrat, as saying that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., agreed to resume negotiations with Democrats over a potential aid package.
Meanwhile, analysts noted signs of rising tensions within OPEC+, the alliance between the cartel and other major producers. Bloomberg reported that officials from the United Arab Emirates, speaking on the condition of anonymity, questioned the benefits of being in the alliance. Speculation this week has centered on whether OPEC+ would decide at a Nov. 30-Dec. 1 meeting to extend existing output cuts or stick with a schedule that would ease those restrictions in January. “Now it even seems that one of OPEC’s core countries, the UAE, is no longer willing to maintain the production cuts in view of the rise in production elsewhere,” said Eugen Weinberg, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, in a note. With production also picking up in Russia, much will depend on Saudi Arabia, he said. “If production discipline can be restored within the group, this would boost the market’s [confidence] in the alliance. That said, it is also possible that Saudi Arabia will react in much the same way as it did in March, meaning that another price war is possible,” he said, referring to a monthlong battle between Saudi Arabia and Russia that flooded the world with crude as the global economy nearly shut down in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nov 18th, 2020 by loren
Oil futures climbed on Wednesday to mark the highest settlement since early September after another positive step toward a COVID-19 vaccine. Prices held on to their gains even after U.S. government data showed a second-straight weekly rise in domestic crude inventories. Oil prices rose sharply after Pfizer Inc. said a final analysis of clinical trial data showed the vaccine it developed with BioNTech SE was 95% effective, noted Robert Yawger, director of energy at Mizuho Securities, in a note. The announcement came a little more than a week after the companies announced promising results and paves the way for them to ask regulators to formally approve the drug. That sets up WTI to challenge key resistance at $43.06 — a more-than-two-month high set on Nov. 11, Yawger said.
On Wednesday West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery rose 39 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $41.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, though off the day’s high of $42.46. January Brent crude, the global benchmark, added 59 cents, or nearly 1.4%, to $44.34 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Both WTI and Brent crude prices, based on the front-month contracts, registered their highest settlements since early September, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories rose by 800,000 barrels for the week ended Nov. 13. That was bigger than the 100,000-barrel climb forecast by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts, but the American Petroleum Institute reported on Tuesday a much larger 4.2 million-barrel increase. The EIA data also showed crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., storage hub edged up by 1.2 million barrels for the week.
Gasoline supply, meanwhile, rose by 2.6 million barrels, but distillate stockpiles dropped by 5.2 million barrels. The S&P Global Platts survey had shown expectations for a supply climb of 300,000 barrels for gasoline and decline of 1.8 million barrels for distillates. The delay in guidance on production policy wasn’t a surprise” and there will be “more clarity” at the end of the month, Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, told Market Watch.
OPEC+ is scheduled to ease up on curbs beginning Jan. 1, but speculation has grown for a delay on worries the continued rise in COVID-19 cases will allow a surge in supplies barring further restraint. “OPEC is leaving all doors open to see how much demand does get hit in the weeks ahead,” said Zahir. “It is also worth noting Libya oil production continues to increase with no restrictions on them until they hit their previous production levels.
Nov 16th, 2020 by loren
Brent crude futures for January were up $1.02, or 2.4%, to $43.80 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for December settled $1.21, or 3.02%, higher at $41.34 per barrel. “Vaccine euphoria has already been priced in heavily since last week, but a second remedy to COVID-19 shows that a large-scale vaccination programme, with sufficient amounts for the global population, is somewhat closer now,” said Rystad Energy analyst Louise Dickson. The announcement by Moderna comes after Pfizer Inc reported last week that its vaccine was more than 90% effective, raising hopes that pandemic-driven damage to the global economy could be reduced.
Prices were also buoyed by data showing a rebound in China and Japan, with figures showing that Chinese refineries processed record daily levels of crude in October. Both WTI and Brent gained more than 8% last week on hopes of a vaccine and expecttaion that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, would maintain lower output next year to support prices.
The group, known as OPEC+, has been cutting production by about 7.7 million barrels a day (bpd), with compliance seen at 96% in October, and had planned to increase output by 2 million bpd from January. OPEC+ is set to hold a ministerial committee meeting on Tuesday that could recommend changes to production quotas when all the ministers meet on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1. “There is no denying that the oil market is fully in the hands of OPEC+,” said SEB chief commodity analyst Bjarne Schieldrop. “The organisation is the only reason why oil prices today are not $20 a barrel. As such, their upcoming meeting on Nov 30-Dec 1 is no less hugely important.”
Nov 13th, 2020 by loren
Brent crude was down 72 cents, or 1.7%, at $42.78 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled down 99 cents, or 2.4%, to $40.13 a barrel. For the week, both were headed for a rise of more than 8%.
Libyan oil production has risen to 1.215 million barrels per day (bpd), a Libyan oil source told Reuters, up from the 1.04 million bpd reported on Nov. 7 by the country’s National Oil Corp. Also pressuring prices, U.S. government data showed crude inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels last week. Analysts had expected a draw of 913,000 barrels. “In essence, some of the feel-good factor from the Pfizer vaccine has worn off and disappointing EIA figures have created a bit of a downward correction,” Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity research at BNP Paribas, said. “However, OPEC+ is prepared to tweak its production and we’re still waiting for the trial results of other vaccines that may be easier to distribute since they won’t need such cold storage.” New coronavirus infections in the United States and elsewhere are at record levels and tightening restrictions should lead to fuel demand recovering more slowly than many had hoped.
WTI and Brent contracts jumped this week after data showed an experimental COVID-19 vaccine being developed by Pfizer Inc and Germany’s BioNTech was 90% effective. But on Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said global oil demand was unlikely to get a significant boost from vaccines until well into 2021. “It’s no surprise that the market is trimming the price gains today as realities for crude supply and demand are grim, while daily new Covid-19 cases in the U.S. are setting new records for the third-straight day,” Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad, said. “Our crude and liquids balances suggest oil prices need to go lower before they go higher.”
Analysts say tougher restrictions on mobility to deal with sky-rocketing coronavirus cases mean the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, may hesitate to loosen output curbs as planned in January. OPEC+ is due to hold a Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee next week, which will give some indications of what the producers may decide at the next ministerial meeting on Dec. 1. Algeria’s energy minister said this week that OPEC+ could extend the group’s current oil production cuts into 2021 or deepen them further if required.
Nov 13th, 2020 by loren
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Nov 12th, 2020 by loren
Oil futures tracked with U.S. equities, which also fell on pandemic concerns. Europe is grappling with a sharp increase in infections and new social restrictions. In the United States, new cases have surpassed 100,000 per day for several days, and more than a dozen states have doubled their caseloads in the last two weeks.
Brent crude fell 27 cents to settle at $43.53 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 33 cents to settle at $41.12 a barrel. “When stocks gave up gains, oil followed,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “It’s a very nervous market.” U.S. government data added to the bearishness, as crude inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels last week, compared with an expected fall of 913,000 barrels. Both contracts rallied this week after data showed an experimental coronavirus vaccine being developed by Pfizer Inc and BioNTech was 90% effective, raising hopes that the pandemic will be brought under control.
Even with that development, though, oil demand remains shaky. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said global oil demand was unlikely to rise significantly until well into 2021, if the vaccine is successful. “While the vaccine remains the best news received since the virus spread, life won’t return to normal in a matter of days or weeks,” said Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM.
Similarly, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecast for demand on Wednesday, saying consumption will rebound more slowly in 2021 than previously thought because of the virus. Algeria’s energy minister said OPEC+ – grouping OPEC and allies including Russia – could extend production cuts of 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) into 2021, or deepen them further if needed. OPEC+ is expected to hold off on a scheduled increase in supply in January due to the weakening outlook. It was considering a reduction in its supply cuts to 5.7 million bpd. “We feel OPEC has no choice but to delay output increases; most likely by three months,” analysts at ANZ Research wrote.
Nov 11th, 2020 by loren
Nov 11th, 2020 by loren
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Nov 10th, 2020 by loren
Prices were also boosted by comments from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, who said on Monday the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, together known as OPEC+, could tweak their supply cut pact if demand slumps before the vaccine is available. OPEC+ agreed to cut supply by 7.7 million barrels per day from August through December and then ease the cuts by around 2 million bpd in January. But the negative impact that renewed lockdowns in Europe are having on fuel demand, as well as rising Libyan production, kept prices in check.
Traffic in London, Paris and Madrid fell sharply in November after a peak in October, according to data provided to Reuters by location technology company TomTom, that covered mobility until Sunday evening. France, the United Kingdom, Spain and Poland were under the strictest lockdowns in Europe, according to the Oxford stringency index that assesses indicators such as school and workplace closures, and travel bans.
Meanwhile Libyan production has risen above 1 million bpd in recent days from 100,000 bpd in early September.