7/17/24Fueling Strategy: Please, If possible, “PARTIAL FILL ONLY TODAY/TONIGHT” Thursday prices will DROP 4.5 Cents ~ Be Safe
NYEX Crude $ 80.76 DN $1.1500
NYMEX ULSD $2.5136 DN $0.0448
NYMEX Gas $2.4916 DN $0.0141
NEWS
WTI Crude Oil futures struggled to hold footing Monday after Chinese GDP came in at 4.7% y/y Sunday night, lower than the 5.1% forecast and the lowest since Q1 2023.
Although Industrial Production for June did beat at 5.3% versus 4.9%, it slowed from the prior month’s while Retail Sales also missed and Fixed Asset Investment hit a four-month low. The slate of poor economic data played into the “slowing China” narrative and left a difficult path for Crude Oil which has hit the lowest since June 26th this morning.
U.S. Retail Sales data came in better than expected this morning, which reinforces the idea of a strong economy domestically, and one that can support prices at the pump.
Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED TODAY/TONIGHT” Prices will go up less than 1/2 cents Wednesday~ Be Safe
NYEX Crude $ 81.91 DN $.3000
NYMEX ULSD $2.5136 UP $.0040
NYMEX Gas $2.4916 DN $.0237
NEWS
LONDON, July 16 (Reuters) – Oil prices declined more than 1% on Tuesday on worries of a slowing Chinese economy crimping demand and despite a growing consensus the U.S. Federal Reserve could begin cutting its key interest rate as soon as September. Brent futures were down $1.31, or 1.54%, to $83.54 a barrel at 1317 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $1.41, or 1.72%, to $80.50.
The weaker Chinese economic data “cast some doubts on whether market participants are being overly optimistic” regarding China’s oil demand outlook, IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong wrote in an email.
The world’s second-largest economy grew 4.7% in April-June, official data showed, its slowest rate since the first quarter of 2023 and missing a 5.1% forecast in a Reuters poll. It slowed from the previous quarter’s 5.3% expansion, hamstrung by a protracted property downturn and job insecurity.
“Its 2Q GDP and retail sales figures had surprised on the downside by a significant margin, while anticipation for stronger stimulus measures at the Third Plenum may face the risk of disappointment,” Yeap added, referring to a key economic leadership meeting in Beijing this week.
n the U.S., Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday the three U.S. inflation readings over the second quarter of this year “add somewhat to confidence” that the pace of price increases is returning to the central bank’s target in a sustainable fashion, remarks which market participants interpreted as indicating that a turn to interest rate cuts may not be far off.
Lower interest rates decrease the cost of borrowing, which can boost economic activity and oil demand.
Some analysts cautioned about being overly bullish as expected weakness in some macroeconomic data from the U.S. could still indirectly hurt oil demand in the near term.
“Macro factors are not in favour of higher oil prices in the near term (capped below $85/barrel for WTI crude) due to the prospect of weaker U.S. retail sales for June that are due later today,” OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong wrote in an email.
Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED TODAY/TONIGHT, Prices are down less than 1/2 cent today and will drop another 3/4 cent Sunday~ Be Safe Today
NYEX Crude $ 82.21 DN $.4100
NYMEX ULSD $2.5096 DN $.0086
NYMEX Gas $2.5153 DN $.0025
NEWS
NEW YORK, July 12 (Reuters) – Oil futures prices settled slightly lower on Friday as investors weighed weaker U.S. consumer sentiment against mounting hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Brent crude futures settled 37 cents lower to $85.03 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 41 cents, or 0.5%, to close at $82.21 a barrel. For the week, Brent futures fell more than 1.7% after four weeks of gains. WTI futures posted 1.1% weekly decline.
A monthly survey by the University of Michigan showed U.S. consumer sentiment fell to an eight-month low in July, although inflation expectations improved for the next year and beyond. The U.S. Labor Department said the producer price index (PPI) rose 0.2% in June, slightly more than expected, as the cost of services climbed. Still, investors expect the Fed could start cutting rates in September. “The market isn’t afraid of the Fed at this point,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
Lower rates are expected to boost economic growth, which could boost fuel consumption. “Cooling U.S. inflation numbers may support the case for the Fed to kick-start its policy easing process earlier rather than later,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG. “It also adds to the series of downside surprises in U.S. economic data, which points to a clear weakening of the U.S. economy,” he added.
Oil prices have drawn some support from U.S. gasoline demand, which government data showed on Wednesday was at 9.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week ended July 5, the highest since 2019 for the week that includes the Independence Day holiday. Jet fuel demand on a four-week average basis was at its strongest since January 2020. The strong fuel demand encouraged U.S. refiners to ramp up activity and draw from crude oil stockpiles. U.S. Gulf Coast refiners’ net input of crude rose last week to more than 9.4 million bpd for the first time since January 2019, government data showed. Signs of weaker demand from China, the world’s biggest oil importer, could counter the outlook from the United States and weigh on prices. “The recent downside correction is evidently over, although the speed of further ascent might be hindered by falling Chinese crude oil imports, which plummeted 11% in June from the previous year,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.
U.S. active oil rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by one to 478 this week, the lowest since December 2021, energy services firm Baker Hughes (BKR.O), opens new tab reported on Friday.
Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to July 9, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.
Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED TODAY/TONIGHT, Prices are down 1/2 cent today and will drop another 1/2 Saturday ~ Be Safe Today
NYEX Crude $ 82.62 UP $.5200
NYMEX ULSD $2.5182 DN $.0002
NYMEX Gas $2.5178 UP $.0144
NEWS 07/11/2024
Today’s monthly report from the IEA was bearish for crude as the report said global crude consumption in Q2 rose by +710,000 bpd, the smallest increase since late 2022 as Chinese crude demand slipped into a contraction.
A report late Wednesday from JPMorgan Chase shows stronger global oil demand that is bullish for crude prices as the report said global oil demand averaged 103.6 million bpd in the month-to-date through July 6, rising by +1.7 million bpd from a year ago. The report cites a rebound in US and Chinese air travel, as well as weather-related increases in fuel oil and gasoil use in the Middle East.
Reduced crude exports from Russia are limiting global oil supplies and are supporting oil prices. According to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, Russia’s crude exports in the week to July 7 fell by -990,000 bpd to 2.67 million bpd, the lowest in over five months.
Weakness in crude demand in China, the world’s second-largest crude consumer, is bearish for oil prices. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that in the week ending June 28, only 86 global oil tankers indicated China as their next destination in the coming three months, five fewer than the prior week and the lowest weekly tally since August of 2022.
Crude oil prices have underlying support from the Hamas-Israel conflict. Israel’s military continues to conduct operations in Gaza, and there is also concern that the war might spread to Hezbollah in Lebanon or even to a direct conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, ongoing attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have forced shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting global crude oil supplies.
Higher than expected Russian crude output is bearish for oil prices. Russian crude production averaged 9.078 million bpd in June, above its agreed target of 9.049 million bpd.
An increase in crude oil in floating storage is bearish for prices. Monday’s weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +11% w/w to 86.58 million bbl as of July 5.
OPEC+ rolled out a plan to restore some crude production in Q4, which sparked worries about a glut in global oil supplies. OPEC+, on June 2, extended the 2 million bpd of voluntary crude production cuts into Q3 but said they would gradually phase out the cuts over the following 12 months, beginning in October. OPEC pledged to extend its crude production cap at about 39 million bpd to the end of 2025. Also, the UAE was given a 300,000 bpd boost to its production target for 2025.
A decrease in OPEC crude output is positive for oil prices. OPEC’s June crude production fell -80,000 bpd to 26.98 million bpd.
Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 5 were -4.4% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -1.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -8.2% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 5 rose +0.8% w/w and matched a record high of 13.3 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending July 5 were unchanged at a 2-1/2 year low of 479 rigs. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
Fueling Strategy: Please “FUEL AS NEEDED TODAY/TONIGHT” Today’s prices are down 5.5 cents but will drop another 1/2 cents Friday~ Be Safe
NYEX Crude $ 82.10 UP $.6900
NYMEX ULSD $2.5184 DN $.0052
NYMEX Gas $2.5034 DN $.0240
NEWS 07/10/2024
HOUSTON, July 10 (Reuters) – Oil prices settled higher on Wednesday after a jump in U.S. refining activity last week drove a larger-than-expected decline in gasoline and crude inventories, but gains were capped due to minimal supply disruptions from Hurricane Beryl.
Brent futures settled up 42 cents, or 0.5% at $85.08 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled up 69 cents, or 0.85%, at $82.10 a barrel.
WTI rose by as much as $1 during the session, after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels to 445.1 million barrels in the week ended July 5, far exceeding analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.3 million-barrel draw.
Gasoline stocks fell by 2 million barrels to 229.7 million barrels, much bigger than the 600,000-barrel draw analysts expected during U.S. Fourth of July holiday week.
“More than anything the EIA data seems to be the driving force right now for higher prices,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group.
Both crude futures contracts had ended the previous three sessions lower on signs that the Texas energy industry came off relatively unscathed from Hurricane Beryl.
Oil and gas companies restarted some operations on Tuesday. On Wednesday morning, the Port of Houston said it had returned to normal start times for operations at its eight public terminals.
Refineries and offshore production facilities saw limited storm damage and have largely returned to normal operations, easing concerns of a supply disruption.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he was not yet ready to declare inflation beaten, but felt the U.S. remained on a path to stable prices and continued low unemployment.
Investors are betting on interest rate cuts for September, which could boost economic growth and oil demand.
Geopolitical risk did little to move prices, analysts said, with investors somewhat fatigued over discussions about a ceasefire in Gaza and the war in Ukraine, said Tim Snyder, economist at Matador Economics.
“We see news stories out there that are having little impact on the market, which means the market is discounting those,” he added.
In the Middle East, Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said that if Hamas reached a Gaza ceasefire deal with Israel, Hezbollah would stop its operations with no need for separate talks. The group began firing at Israeli targets on the border in support of Palestinians after its ally Hamas launched the Oct. 7 attack on Israel that precipitated the war in Gaza.
Fueling Strategy: Please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY TODAY/TONIGHT” Today’s prices are down 3 cents but will drop another 5 cents Thursday~ Be Safe
NYEX Crude $ 81.41 DN $.9200
NYMEX ULSD $2.5236 DN $.0555
NYMEX Gas $2.5274 DN $.0105
NEWS
Benchmark U.S. crude oil for August delivery fell 92 cents to $81.41 per barrel Tuesday. Brent crude for September delivery fell $1.09 to $84.66 per barrel.
Wholesale gasoline for August delivery fell 1 cent to $2.53 a gallon. August heating oil fell 6 cents to $2.52 a gallon. August natural gas fell 3 cents to $2.34 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Gold for August delivery rose $4.40 to $2,367.90 per ounce. Silver for September delivery rose 15 cents to $31.06 per ounce, and September copper fell 4 cents $4.58 per pound.
The dollar rose to 161.33 yen from 160.81 Japanese yen. The euro fell to $1.0813 from $1.0825.
