Market Close: Sep 26 Down

Oil futures finished lower Tuesday on expectations U.S. data will show a fourth consecutive weekly rise in domestic crude inventories.

U.S. prices had rallied Monday, with the gains spurred in part by a threat from Turkey’s president to cut off oil exports from a Kurdish region of Iraq.

November West Texas Intermediate crude declined by 34 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $51.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices on Monday surged 3.1%, with the $52.22 settlement the highest since mid-April. That move, which found added support from growing talk of a possible extension of the OPEC-led production-cut deal, carried WTI into a bull market, as prices climbed by more than 20% from lows in June. November Brent on Tuesday fell 58 cents, or 1%, to $58.44 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. The global benchmark climbed 3.8% Monday to the highest front-month contract finish since early July 2015.

Weekly data on U.S. petroleum supplies will be released by the American Petroleum Institute and Energy Information Administration late Tuesday and early Wednesday, respectively. Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts expect the EIA to report a fourth-straight weekly rise—of 1.3 million barrels for crude inventories, while gasoline stockpiles are seen down by 100,000 barrels and distillates down 2.1 million barrels. An increase for crude supplies would follow three-consecutive weekly increases reported by the EIA, as Hurricane Harvey disrupted U.S. refinery operations, reducing demand for crude oil.

On Monday, oil prices rose as Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned his country could “close the valves” on petroleum exports from a region in northern Iraq where Iraqi Kurds held a vote on independence from Baghdad, according to news reports. “Given this fresh risk of supply disruptions, we see the case for oil to remain supported for a few days, especially considering that Erdogan could follow-up his threat and push prices even higher,” said Charalambos Pissouros, senior analyst at IronFX, in an note. More than half Kurdistan’s oil production is exported through a Turkish pipeline. “Looking further ahead, the next major theme in the oil market will probably be the OPEC meeting in late-November. Even though there are still eight weeks left until that gathering, speculation for a potential extension or expansion of the current deal could begin well ahead of that time,” Pissouros said.

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will hold their meeting on Nov. 30. A committee comprised of some OPEC members and nonmembers met last week in Vienna, pegging compliance with the output-cut agreement at a record 116% in August. OPEC has “made a dent in global supplies, while robust demand in Asia and the revival of industrial nation’s demand underpins the recent surge in oil prices,” said Adrienne Murphy, chief market analyst at AvaTrade. “However, we’re starting to see a correction in price as investors start to take profits at the highs,” she said. And “the efforts of OPEC and its allies may be futile, given the robust growth of the U.S. shale industry.” “Supply curbs from the cartel should be not only extended, but deepened to see a persistent rise in oil prices,” said Murphy.