Market Close: Sep 25 UP

NEWS

Crude-oil prices settled sharply higher Monday, lifting Brent crude to a more than two-year high and West Texas Intermediate crude into a bull market and its highest finish in about five months

Prices found support, with WTI climbing by more than 20% from lows in June to meet the definition of a bull market, as data showed major producers’ strong commitment to their agreement to cut output and as talk of a likely extension of the deal grows. October West Texas Intermediate crude  tacked on $1.56, or 3.1%, to settle at $52.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices saw their highest settlement since mid-April and stand at about 22% above the lows seen in June. November Brent the global benchmark, climbed $2.16, or 3.8%, at $59.02 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. That was the highest front-month contract finish since early July 2015, according to FactSet data. Both contracts logged a fourth-straight session climb.

“Oil prices have been going higher in recent weeks due, first and foremost, to evidence that OPEC and Russia’s efforts to reduce the global supply glut was showing positive results, and that the group was somewhat surprisingly sticking to their agreement,” said Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at Forex.com. “Talks that the production cuts could be extended has been providing further confidence to oil investors that the rally could be sustained,” he said.

OPEC and 10 producers outside the cartel, including Russia, first agreed late in 2016 to cap their production at around 1.8 million barrels a day lower than peak October 2016 levels, with the aim of alleviating global oversupply and boosting prices. The deal was extended in May through March 2018. Over the past few weeks, a number of signatories to the deal have indicated a willingness to hold back production potentially through 2018. An OPEC-led committee that met Friday boasted record compliance of 116% in August for the OPEC and non-OPEC countries that are part of the agreement. But Adrienne Murphy, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, told MarketWatch that “optimism in the oil market looks to be overstated.” “While there are signs that the oil market is rebalanced, obstacles persist,” she said. “We need to see OPEC and its allies deepen or at least extend cuts beyond the March 2018 deadline. Without a clear mandate, the oil rally will be capped.”

Meanwhile, Thomas Pugh, commodities economist at Capital Economics, said Brent oil was also being supported by upward revisions to demand expectations, including by the International Energy Agency earlier in September. But he noted demand for U.S. crude appeared to be lower, partly as a result of the aftereffects of Hurricane Harvey.

The spread between Brent and WTI, which widened to $6.20 by the close of last session, hasn’t been as wide since the U.S. lifted its ban on oil exports nearly two years ago, according to analysts at JBC Energy. In a note on Monday, they said they strongly expected the wide spread to result in record crude exports out of the U.S. Gulf Coast. That should narrow the difference between the two crude benchmarks, the analysts added.

Petroleum-product supplies have “become very tight” all of a sudden, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group—”distillates, in particular, because supply is tight ahead of the strongest demand time,” the winter heating season. “Gasoil supply in Europe is also tight. and is one reasons that Brent Crude is at such a premium over WTI.”