Sep 25th – Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT” Prices will JUMP up 3.5 cents after midnight tonight (Thursday)!! ~ Be Safe Today!

NYEX Crude      $  71.56 UP $1.1900

NYMEX ULSD     $2.1805 UP $0.0354

NYMEX Gas       $2.0297 UP $0.0395

NEWS

The Nov WTI trading session settled at 71.56, had a high of 72.40, a low of 70.44. Cash price is at 70.37(-0.65), while open interest came in at 355,290. CLX settled above its 7 day (70.44) ((broke above the 7 and 20 day)), its 20 day (69.98), but below its 50 day (72.94), and its 200 day (74.93) moving-averages. The COT report (Futures and Options Summary) as of 9/20 showed commercials with a net short position of -199,037 (a decrease in short positions by 7,981 compared to last week) to non-commercials who are net long 175,128 (a increase in long positions by 247 compared to last week).

The movement today I believe was based on the developing Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and the economic stimulus package released by China’s central bank. Reuters reported that oil platforms in the Gulf for Chevron and Exxon have already begun evacuating staff in the region. Accuweather is predicting the storm to make landfall later in the week as a Category 3 Hurricane with potential to reach Category 4 status. China’s central bank announced their largest stimulus package since 2020, a move expected to put some pulse in their economy after a sluggish year. Goldman Sachs commodity analysts have increased their crude oil forecast for the fourth quarter, projecting that Brent prices will reach $77 by year-end. They attribute this outlook to declining global production coupled with a rise in global demand. Concerns over China’s crude demand and the economic state in the U.S. and Europe continue to fuel this bearish positioning in the market as we enter the winter months, in my view. As of today I still see support around $68 and resistance around $72. The API and EIA numbers and this storm in the Gulf of Mexico could see us break that $72 hurdle this week.

Have a Great Day!

Loren R Bailey, President

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