Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT”, Make sure you’re completely full of fuel by 23:00 CST tonight! – Wednesday prices will JUMPUp 8 Cents ~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 69.16 UP $2.1400
NYMEX ULSD $2.2514 UP $0.0805
NYMEX Gas $2.0183 UP $0.0690
NEWS
The January WTI trading session settled at 69.16 (+2.14) [+3.36%], had a high of 69.37, a low of 66.53. Cash price is at 67.03 (-1.65), while open interest for CLF25 is at 348,664. CLF25 settled above its 5 day (68.18), below its 20 day (69.37), below its 50 day (69.57), below its 100 day (71.78), below its 200 day (73.63) and below its year-to-date (73.37) moving averages. The COT report (Futures and Options Summary) as of 11/12 showed commercials with a net short position of -235,418 (a increase in long positions by +4,726 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +211,700 (a decrease in short positions by -12,226 from the previous week).
Markets are responding to President Biden’s shift in policy regarding Ukraine’s use of American missiles to strike targets within Russia. This decision comes with only two months remaining in his presidency and directly opposes President-elect Trump’s commitment to negotiate a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine upon taking office. Previously, President Putin warned that any Ukrainian use of American-made missiles on Russian soil would be viewed as an act of war by the United States.
China’s oil demand continues to show more signs of weakness, as Reuters reported a significant reduction in the country’s crude oil surplus in October. The surplus dropped to 550,000 barrels per day for October, down from 930,000 barrels per day in September. However domestic crude production rose 2.5% year-over-year to 4.04 million bpd, while imports reached 10.53 million bpd. China’s Shanghai CSI 300 Index closed 0.46% lower today and is 4.43% lower over the last 5 sessions.
Western Europe’s largest crude oil refinery, the Johan Sverdrup operated in Norway and owned by Equinor, suffered a power outage this morning. Equinor said work to bring the oilfield back online was underway, though no set time figure was given as to when it would be.
Saudi Arabia posted their largest export figure in three months, the Joint Organizations Data Initiative reported this morning. Exports for the Kingdom increased by 80,000 barrels per day, bringing it to a total of 5.75 mb/d. Starting in January OPEC+ plans to add 180,000 barrels per day, gradually restoring 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of next year. OPEC+ is currently withholding 5.86 million barrels per day (roughly 5.7% of global crude demand). Last week OPEC+ cut their global oil demand forecast for this year and for 2025 for the fourth consecutive month. The institution sees oil consumption increasing by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024, averaging 104 million barrels per day globally, this is 107,000 barrels per day less than the previous forecast. For 2025 OPEC+ predicts that daily global demand will increase by 1.5 million barrels, 103,000 barrels less than the previous forecast. OPEC+ cited the lessening demand out of China, India and Africa as reasons for lowering the forecast. OPEC+ is scheduled to have their next meeting on December 1st.
Last week The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised their global demand growth forecast for 2024 from 862,000 barrels per day to 921,000 barrels per day, this figure is less than half that was recorded in 2023. The IEA lowered their demand growth forecast for 2025 to 990,000 barrels per day, citing supply glut concerns. The IEA is predicting a surplus of over 1 million barrels a day for 2025. Last week’s EIA Petroleum Status Report showed U.S. Commercial crude oil inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels, higher than the 300,000 barrel increase that was forecasted. Seasonally U.S. crude inventories are about 4.6% below their 5 year average. The inventory for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve grew slightly from 387.3 million barrels to 387.8 million barrels. Crude imports increased by 269,000 barrels per day, averaging 6.5 million barrels per day. Domestic crude oil production was lowered by 100,000 million barrels per day. American crude oil refineries operated at 91.4% capacity. The American Petroleum Institute reported that commercial inventories decreased by 770,000 barrels at the Cushing Hub, against a forecast for a million barrel build. Elsewhere Morgan Stanley cut its demand forecast for this year to 800,000 barrels per day and lowered their barrel price forecast for the first quarter of 2025 to $72.
Hurricane Sara is no more and has been downgraded to a Tropical Rainstorm, tracking across the Gulf Coast, it is expected to bring heavy flooding in the region according to AccuWeather.
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Loren R Bailey, President
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Cell: 479-790-5581
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As always, thank you so much for being a part of the Fuel Manager Services, Inc. family, and we look forward to making this the best year yet!
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