Market Close: May 18 Down
May 18th, 2015 by loren
Oil futures settled lower Monday, with the U.S. benchmark at its lowest level in a week, failing to find much support from clashes in Iraq and Yemen as disappointing U.S. economic data dulled the outlook for energy demand. Oil traders also fretted over the potential for a recovery in U.S. shale-oil production and mulled the outcome of next month’s meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. June crude fell 26 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $59.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange — the lowest settlement since May 11. July Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell 54 cents, or 0.8%, to $66.27 a barrel.
Nymex crude ended 0.5% higher last week. It has been up for three consecutive weeks, based on the front-month contracts, but the string is nine weeks when tracking the most-active contracts. Traders in the oil pit were focused on “economic numbers rather than the renewed tensions in the Middle East,” said Taki Tsaklanos, head of research at Secular Investor. Islamic State seized control of the western city of Ramadi, the capital of Iraq’s largest province, and in Yemen, a Saudi Arabia-led coalition resumed air strikes against Houthi fighters, according to media reports. But last week, U.S. data showed that May consumer sentiment tumbled to a seven-month low, April retail sales were flat and April industrial production dropped.
The oil market will be keeping an eye on this week’s data, said Tsaklanos. They include housing starts Tuesday, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee minutes from the April meeting due Wednesday and the consumer price index Friday. For now, “the oil price remains in a consolidation mode,” said Tsaklanos. “The fundamental picture in the oil market has not changed meantime.” Oil prices failed to find much support on the back of worries U.S. shale production could recover quickly if prices keep on rising. Last week’s Baker Hughes U.S. oil-drilling rig count also lost momentum, falling by 8 rigs to 660 rigs, the smallest fall in 23 weeks.
Morgan Stanley said U.S. oil producers are cautious about the timing of resuming oil-production levels due to the OPEC meeting set for June 5 and the need for some price stability in the market. U.S. oil producers are indicating that “$65 may be the new $85,” as break-even costs of oil production have fallen markedly due to new drilling techniques and cost efficiencies, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Longson said. Longson also said the Middle East appears to be best positioned for raising oil production, reinforcing concerns about OPEC production levels.