Oil futures settled lower Monday, lingering below $60 a barrel, as traders considered the outlook for crude demand after China stepped up efforts to boost its economy. Analysts, meanwhile, remained cautious about the recent strength in oil markets. June crude lost 14 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $59.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell 48 cents, or 0.7%, to $64.91 a barrel. Nymex prices rose 0.4% last week. That was their eighth straight week of gains, based on the most-active contracts. But based on the front-month contracts, it was a second weekly gain in a row. Prices were up 25% in April.
Over the weekend, China, the world’s second-largest consumer of oil, cut interest rates for the third time in six months in an effort to stimulate its economy. “China’s economy is slowing but they are buying oil like it’s going out of style,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. “We have said that oil demand would exceed expectations with global economic stimulus and that is exactly what is happening,” he said in a note. “China cut rates by a quarter point over the weekend for the third time in the last 6 months to combat a slowing economy, yet they also imported a record 7.4 million amount of oil last month—passing the United States as the world’s biggest oil importer.”
The Financial Times, citing Chinese customs data, reported that China’s crude-oil purchases from overseas hit a new high of 7.4 million barrels a day in April, topping U.S. imports of 7.2 million barrels a day. That news follows a Platts survey released in late April that showed apparent demand for oil in China rose 6.5% in March from a year earlier—the highest growth rate since Sept. 2014. “China’s growth has been stagnant for extended periods of time and this stimulus is a timely occasion,” said Daniel Ang, analyst at Phillip Futures. While the China move provided support for oil, some analysts questioned whether the rally is sustainable. Prices are up about 40% since their lows earlier this year. “While we expect a cyclical recovery in Brent over the next few years, we are not bullish near term,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a report.
Sustained low prices and greater investment cuts are required to produce a lasting recovery, the bank said, adding that if prices recover too quickly, investment could return and undermine the recovery.
Meanwhile, a draft of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ latest strategy report shows that the cartel doesn’t see oil prices consistently trading at $100 a barrel again in the next decade.