WTI also found support after U.S. energy firms cut oil rigs for a seventh week in a row, bringing the total count down to 325, the lowest since June 2016, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said. he Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers, known as OPEC+, have agreed to cut output by 9.7 million barrels per day from May 1.
Several countries and regions, including China’s central province of Hubei, where the novel coronavirus behind the pandemic was first detected, are relaxing lockdowns put in place to contain the virus. “Global petroleum stock builds likely peaked in April as oil demand contracted by nearly 25 million bpd year-over-year,” according to a BofA Global Research report. “Now, countries are emerging from lockdown, boosting demand just when OPEC+ cuts are kicking in and producers elsewhere are cutting output.” Even so, there are doubts the production reduction, the largest ever agreed, will be enough as demand is unlikely to recover rapidly. “The production cuts are finally kicking in,” said Craig Erlam, analyst at brokerage OANDA. “Prices are still extremely low though and the next two weeks will likely see extreme volatility return.”
A Reuters survey on Thursday showed that in advance of the new output cut, OPEC sharply raised production to the highest since March 2019, adding to the excess supply already in the market. “The demand recovery will be a muted affair,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM. “What’s more, OPEC+ curbs which take effect today will be no panacea for the hefty supply imbalance.” Underlining the difficulties some producers will face in meeting their commitments, industry sources said Iraq would struggle to meet its quota of cutting output by nearly a quarter. Iraq is OPEC’s second-largest producer. Also supporting oil prices, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday crude inventories rose by 9 million barrels last week, less than the 10.6 million-barrel rise analysts had forecast. “This is a second straight week of inventory and product demand figures suggesting a bottoming of the U.S. market,” said Stephen Innes, chief market strategist at AxiCorp.