Oil settled lower Tuesday, pressured ahead of a U.S. government report that is expected to show a weekly rise in crude supplies, but support from talk among major producers to extend their production-cut deal kept losses at a minimum.
May West Texas Intermediate crude shed 30 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $65.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract has been confined to small changes since it settled at $65.88 Friday< the highest finish for a front-month contract since Jan. 26, according to FactSet data. It rose roughly 5.6% for last week.May Brent crude fell a penny to finish at $70.11 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. The front month contract has traded mostly above $70 a barrel since clearing that level on Friday for the first time since late January.
Weekly U.S. inventory data were due out Wednesday from the Energy Information Administration. Trade group the American Petroleum Institute was set to release its own figures late Tuesday. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts expect the EIA to report a rise of 1 million barrels in domestic crude supplies for the week ended March 23. They also forecast supply declines of 2 million for gasoline and 1.9 million for distillates. The EIA has already reported crude stock gains in three of the last four weeks. Oil prices had found earlier support following media interviews of key Saudi officials, with WTI crude briefly topping $66 intraday.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Reuters in an interview that Saudi Arabia and Russia were considering a long-term extension of their deal to curb production. “We are working to shift from a year-to-year agreement to a 10-20 year agreement,” the crown prince told Reuters, according to a news report published Tuesday.
Strong compliance with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ agreement to hold back crude output by 1.8 million barrels a day has supported prices. OPEC and 10 producers outside the cartel, including Russia, have been curbing production since the start of last year in an effort to rein in a supply glut.
Meanwhile, several countries will be running out of oil supply, according to Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan, in a separate interview on Fox Business Tuesday. “This raises the question of the backlash from underinvestment over the last few years,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. “We have seen a lack of investment in many countries, so new supply coming on line will take money and time. Venezuela’s has plenty of reserves but no new supply.”
The Islamic Republic also was in focus amid concerns about U.S. policy toward Iran, which some strategists believe “clearly raises the likelihood of oil trade disruptions and with it upside risks to oil prices in the near term,” said Ehsan Khoman, head of research for the Middle East at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, in a note Tuesday. A withdrawal by the U.S. from a 2015 international agreement to curb Tehran’s nuclear program would result in the reimposition of economic sanctions on Iran. In such a scenario, “at minimum, we view that 250,000 to 350,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude is at risk of being disrupted,” Khoman said.
