Crude oil plunged by more than 7% on Thursday, the worst single-day loss since April 2020, and is set to close out the week down by the most since October. The decline is the result of a combination of bearish factors – profit-taking by overly long speculators, a stronger dollar, and diminished hopes surrounding vaccinations in Europe. “There have been some bearish headlines over the last two weeks,” Helge Andre Martinsen, senior oil analyst at DNB Bank ASA, told Bloomberg. “But it’s surprising that it happened in just one day.”
Vaccine hiccups could prevent 1 mb/d of oil demand. According to Rystad Energy, a lengthier vaccine campaign in Europe – due to delays and increased hesitancy – could delay the recovery of 1 mb/d of oil demand this year.
China buys more Iranian and Venezuelan oil. China is expected to import 918,000 bpd of oil from Iran in March, the highest since U.S. sanctions went into place two years ago. The purchases have reduced the incentive for Iran to negotiate analysts say. Imports from Venezuela are also on the rise.
U.S. coal generation falls below nuclear. U.S. coal plants generated 774 million MWh in 2020, less than natural gas (1.6 billion MWh) and even nuclear (790 million MWh). Coal slipped into third place last year for the first time since at least 1949.
U.S. refining capacity still not fully restored. U.S. refining capacity is sitting at about 80% of levels seen before the Texas grid crisis in February. An estimated 1.2 mb/d of refining capacity remains offline, according to IHS Markit, due to spring maintenance and ongoing repairs.
IEA: Gasoline demand peaked, but not crude oil. Despite speculation that oil demand peaked in 2019, before the global pandemic hit the industry hard, a new IEA report suggests this assumption may have been overstated as demand is set to continue increasing until 2026.
