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NYMEX Crude $ 37.90 UP $1.9800
NY Harbor ULSD $1.2225 UP $0.0612
NYMEX Gasoline $1.3927 UP $0.0606
NEWS
Oil futures rallied on Monday, posting their highest settlements of the year, on hopes that major producers will curtail supply and as stronger economic data fueled hopes of improving demand. April WTI crude climbed by $1.98, or 5.5%, to settle at $37.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Based on the most-active contracts, prices settled at their highest since Christmas Eve and year-to-date, prices are now about 2.3% higher, according to FactSet data.May Brent crude , the global oil benchmark, rose $2.12, or 5.5%, to $40.84 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange, with prices also logging the highest settlement since early December. “The market is getting more bullish as the damage caused by the oil price crash is becoming apparent and is forcing the market to look beyond the current glut to a world with falling production,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, in a note. “The bulls have regained control of this market that is now up 40% from its 2016 lows.”
On Monday, the United Arab Emirates’ energy minister said that current prices are forcing all suppliers to freeze their production. “It doesn’t make any sense for anyone to increase the production with the current prices,” Suhail al-Mazrouei told reporters on the sidelines of an aerospace conference in Abu Dhabi. “This is all good news for balancing the market. We just need to be patient.”
Oil futures have climbed steadily in recent weeks after Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Qatar agreed last month to freeze their output at January levels in an effort to support prices. Brent is up more than 7% so far this year. The agreement, however, was contingent on other Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC members joining the plan and Iran quickly dismissed the notion. “The big risk is that the meeting proves a disappointment and prices fall back sharply on any lack of further progress,” said Barclays analyst Kevin Norrish. Still, oil has received support from other signs of falling supply.
On Monday, a monthly report from Energy Information Administration forecast that U.S. shale oil output will fall 106,000 barrels a day in April from March to total 4.871 million barrels a day. Industry group Baker Hughes on Friday reported that the number of rigs drilling for crude oil in the U.S. dropped by eight to 392, the lowest level since 2009. Rig counts are seen as a rough proxy for activity in the industry.
The market will be taking further cues from China’s February trade data report and the EIA’s short-term energy outlook, both set for release Tuesday, the weekly U.S. report on crude inventories and production to be issued Wednesday, and the International Energy Agency’s oil report due Friday.