Oil futures settled near a two-week high on Tuesday, with analysts attributing the bounce to technical price triggers, expectations for a weekly decline in U.S. crude supplies and a U.S. plan to help Europe defend against security threats, which highlighted U.S. tensions with Russia.
August crude tacked on 63 cents, or 1 %, to settle at $61.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after posting losses earlier in the session to tap an intra day low of $59.55. The settlement was the highest settlement for a most-active contract since June 10. August Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange added $1.11, or 1.8%, to $64.45 a barrel — the highest settlement since about June 12.
Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, said oil likely found support from news that the U.S. will contribute weapons, aircraft and forces to help Europe defend against security threats, including Russia, which is among the world’s largest oil producers. Defense Secretary Ash Carter, however, was quoted as saying “we do not seek a cold, let alone a hot war with Russia.”
Oil traders also took positions ahead of upcoming weekly petroleum-supply data. The American Petroleum Institute will issue its report late Tuesday, while Energy Information Administration follows with its own data early Wednesday. Analysts polled by Platts expect to see a decline of 2.3 million barrels in crude supplies for the week ended June 19. Tyler Richey, co-editor of The 7:00’s Report, attributed the turn higher for oil prices to technical moves with some overnight resistance levels for Nymex oil prices being broken early Tuesday so some “low time-frame shorts were forced to cover.” The climb, however, was “unwarranted fundamentally,” especially given the stronger U.S. dollar said Richey. Because oil is priced in dollars, fluctuations in the dollar can influence the price of crude.
Meanwhile, the oil market also digested data from China, the world’s second largest oil consumer. The preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.6 in June, compared with a final reading of 49.2 in May. While the data for June showed a slight monthly improvement, a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.