Oil futures fell for a second straight session Thursday, with the U.S. benchmark settling at its lowest level in a week as traders braced for developments from a key meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The highly anticipated meeting isn’t expected to lead to easing of a glut of global-crude supplies or take into account the prospect of growing output from Iran, but traders will be focused on the assemblage of the oil cartel to garner clues on oil futures’s next move after losing nearly half its value since its peak in 2014.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate July crude shed $1.64, or 2.75%, to $58 a barrel. Brent crude for July delivery lost $1.77, or 2.8%, to $62.03 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange. Oil saw “follow-through weakness” after a bearish U.S. Energy Information Administration report released Wednesday, and the thought that OPEC will continue to pump near a record, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. The EIA report showed a fifth straight weekly decline in crude supplies, but stockpiles remain near their highest level in at least 80 years and production levels failed to decline in the latest week.
The International Monetary Fund, however, said the Federal Reserve should not raise rates till 2016—this should help provide some support for oil prices, said Flynn. Commodities have been under pressure due to recent rate-hike expectations, as higher interest rates can boost the dollar, putting pressure on dollar-denominated commodities.
Traders, meanwhile, kept a close watch for comments from oil producers gathering for the OPEC meeting Friday in Vienna. The cartel is expected to leave its production target of 30 million barrels a day in tact despite the fact that it is actual output has been reported at levels higher than that. The market has been concerned that OPEC will stand pat despite the possibility that Iran will soon boost production if a nuclear agreement with six world powers is reached at the end of the month and sanctions on Iran are lifted.
On Thursday, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi said that crude supply, which has caused a global glut of oil last year, is declining. Kuwait oil minister Ali al-Omair said demand for crude will continue to increase as the economy expands.