Market Close: July 23 DOWN, Diesel DN $.0249, Gas DN $.0565
Jul 24th, 2024 by loren
July 24th Fueling Strategy: Please, If possible, “PARTIAL FILL ONLY TODAY/TONIGHT” Thursday prices will DROP 2.5 Cents ~ Be Safe
NMEX Crude $ 76.96 DN $1.4400
NYMEX ULSD $2.4099 DN $0.0249
NYMEX Gas $2.4141 DN $0.0565
NEWS
Supply-demand dynamics, inventory fluctuations, and geopolitical tensions characterize the crude oil market landscape. Analysts at Morgan Stanley project the market to reach equilibrium by the fourth quarter of this year, potentially transitioning to a surplus by 2025. As traders await crucial US oil inventory data, the market is also reacting to geopolitical events, such as the Israeli attack on a Yemeni shipping terminal in retaliation for a recent drone attack on Israel. Also, a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s largest Black Sea oil refinery may cause global supply disruption. Despite these tensions, the short-term outlook for oil prices remains bearish, influenced by ample inventories and weak demand.
Traders are focusing on the release of US oil inventory data. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will provide its estimates on Tuesday. The prior week’s report showed US crude oil inventories declining by 4.44 million barrels for the week ending July 12. Today’s API report is expected to show a smaller draw of -2.47 million barrels. On Wednesday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its report, which is expected to show a build of 0.7 million barrels, a first in three weeks.
In recent market performance, crude oil prices fell to their lowest in over a month on July 23. Crude oil September futures traded at $76.40 per barrel after failing to trade through contract highs of $85.06 on June 2022. Traders have primarily ignored escalating Middle Eastern and Russia-Ukranian tensions, focusing instead on weak technical outlooks, soft demand, and possibly a win by Trump in the upcoming November presidential election. Trump has vowed to “Drill Baby, Drill” on the first day in office, leading to significant supply to the global oil markets.
The short-term forecast for oil prices remains bearish, with ample inventories and weak demand signaling continued downward pressure. However, geopolitical tensions and potential supply disruptions could provide some support.
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