Crude-oil futures settled sharply lower Tuesday as investors weighed a batch of downbeat views on global economic growth, including news that China’s economy expanded at its slowest pace in decades. As well, natural gas prices came under pressure. Crude futures for delivery in February fell $2.30, or 4.7%, to end at $46.39 a barrel. Oil resumed its losing ways after finishing Friday with a weekly gain,snapping a seven-week streak of declines. March Brent crude also succumbed to sellers, falling 85 cents, or 1.7%, to settle at $47.99 a barrel.
U.S. markets were closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, but in electronic trading U.S. crude prices fell 2.4% after Iraq said it’s producing a record amount of crude. Iran’s oil minister, meanwhile, said that his country could withstand $25-a-barrel oil.
Also Monday, the IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2015 by 0.3 percentage point to 3.5%. The fund expects the world economy to expand 3.7% in 2016. While lower oil prices will help boost growth, this benefit will be more than offset by negative factors such as weak investment, as economies adjust to lower growth expectations, the International Monetary Fund said in its latest report.
For many oil importers outside the U.S., the boost from lower oil prices is muted by local-currency depreciation against the U.S. dollar as dollar-denominated commodities like oil become more expensive. Growth prospects also depend on how governments that benefit from lower oil bills adjust spending, the IMF said. Oil consumption is highly dependent on economic growth, with industrial output and transportation accounting for a large chunk of demand for fuels like diesel and gasoline.
On Tuesday, China reported economic growth in 2014 slowed to 7.4%, its weakest rate in a quarter century, barely meeting the government’s rough target of about 7.5%. But that also was above the 7.2% that many analysts expected. Low energy prices failed to boost China’s quarterly economic growth, which expanded at 7.3% in the fourth quarter, said Brian Jackson, China Economist at IHS Global Insight. “Importantly, the challenges facing China’s economy remain as large or even larger compared with a year prior,” he said. Some expect that oil prices will recover, but the timing of that rebound is uncertain, Nomura’s head of oil research Gordon Kwan said in an email. “A few are still worried over oil prices sliding further this spring as seasonal demand weakens and the first U.S. rate hike approaches,” Kwan said.
In addition, February WTI crude oil futures were set to expire Tuesday, “so there may be some volatility associated with thinning trade and late book squaring there,” said Tim Evans, a Citi energy futures specialist, in emailed comments.