Crude-oil futures rallied Friday, notching their first weekly gain in eight weeks as the International Energy Agency said collapsing crude prices would cut into supply growth from oil producers outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Light, sweet crude futures for delivery in February advanced $2.44, or 5.3%, to settle at $48.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On the week, oil rose 0.7%, snapping a seven-week losing streak. March Brent crude gained $1.90, or 4%, to $50.17 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange. On the week, however, Brent lost 2.2% to notch an eight-week decline.
The IEA slashed its forecast for the increase in non-OPEC supply this year by 350,000 barrels in a monthly report released Friday. The collapse in oil prices could help boost demand for OPEC’s own output, a sign that the cartel’s tough-love strategy on oil prices is working, the IEA said. “How low the market’s floor will be is anybody’s guess. But the selloff is having an impact. A price recovery — barring any major disruption — may not be imminent, but signs are mounting that the tide will turn,” the IEA said.
On Thursday, OPEC similarly lowered its forecast for oil-supply growth from non-OPEC members, but it also cut its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2015 by 70,000 barrels a day from its last report.
Close to a bottom on oil?
The EIA report fueled hopes oil have reached a bottom, but Friday’s trade likely also included “some degree of short-term profit taking” ahead of a three-day holiday in the U.S., said Tim Evans, a Citi Futures analyst. While we can’t argue that the market will eventually rebalance, timing remains a key issue and a tighter second half – mostly due to stronger seasonal demand – may not be enough to support a sustained price recovery,” he said in a note Friday.