NEWS
Crude-oil futures settled sharply lower Thursday, erasing a surge higher that followed the Swiss National Bank’s decision to scrap a cap on its currency, as the U.S. dollar regained its footing and investors focused on OPEC’s downgraded forecast of demand for its crude.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil for February delivery fell $2.23, or 4.6%, to settle at $46.25 a barrel after trading as high as $51.27. Oil saw its biggest one-day jump since 2012 on Wednesday, in a move tied in part to options expiration activity, but it gave back most of that gain Thursday and remains near six-year lows. ICE February Brent North Sea crude oil lost $1.02, or 2.1%, to settle at $47.67 a barrel.
OPEC, in its monthly report, said it expects demand for oil from the cartel will average 28.8 million barrels a day in 2015, around 100,000 barrels a day less than the organization’s previous forecast and down 300,000 barrels from the level seen in 2014. Overall, global oil demand is expected to rise slightly in the wake of a plunge in oil prices.
In a surprise announcement Thursday morning, Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan said the Swiss bank would eliminate its minimum exchange rate of 1.20 francs to the euro. The cap was introduced four years ago to shield Switzerland from the European debt crisis and to prevent the Swiss franc from becoming too strong.
A weakening dollar tends to push the price of oil higher. Some strategists have argued that oil’s weakness has largely been a function of the surging dollar, which in 2014 saw its biggest annual rise in nine years. The dollar was down around 14% versus the Swiss franc in recent trade, while the turmoil emanating from the move helped boost the safe-haven Japanese yen. But the dollar surged versus the euro while the ICE dollar index which measures the buck against a basket of six major rivals, regained its footing to trade higher.
The Reserve Bank of India also made a dramatic shift to its monetary policy by lowering its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points to 7.75%, its first rate cut in nearly two years. The moves are a sign that central banks are willing to do whatever it takes to stimulate economic growth, which would increase demand for oil, said Phil Flynn, senior energy analyst at Futures Price Group. The central banks’ decisions mean that officials could be “ready to make dramatic moves to stimulate economic growth. The hope is that by lowering interest rates and making these moves, it will stimulate economic growth and demand for oil,” Flynn said. Flynn said the central banks’ decisions would increase pressure on the European Central Bank to expand its regimen of asset purchases to include government bonds, a program known as quantitative easing.