After posting declines over the past seven months, crude-oil futures rebounded, with Brent crude scoring its biggest monthly percentage climb in nearly six years. “Bears are way out of breath to punish the oil price further, as it was clearly seen when the crude inventory data was released earlier this week,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, ahead of the latest rig data. Crude for April delivery rose $1.59, or 3.3%, to settle at $49.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices for the month, based on the front-month contracts, climbed 3.2%. For the week, they were down 2.1%.
April Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $2.53, or 4.2%, to end Friday’s session at $62.58 a barrel. On a monthly basis, prices for the European benchmark surged 18.1%, the biggest monthly gain for an active monthly contract since May 2009, when Brent tacked on nearly 29%. For the week, they were up 3.9%. Both Brent and WTI prices had posted declines over the past seven months. The premium of Brent crude to Nymex WTI crude remains wide at more than $12 a barrel, its widest in more than a year. “The widening of the price gap in part reflects the fact that the U.S. oil output has continued to grow relentlessly despite the much weaker prices recently,” said Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at Forex.com. “This has helped to push crude stockpiles to repeated all-time highs, which more or less confirms that the market is still oversupplied.”
Baker Hughes on Friday reported the number of U.S. rigs actively drilling for oil and natural gas as of Feb. 27 fell 43 rigs to 1,267. That’s 502 fewer than at the same time last year. The number of oil rigs fell 33 to 986. Traders have been closely watching the shrinking rig count for signs it will eventually cut into the glut of crude flowing into the market, but analysts disagree on when this might happen.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported an 8.4 million-barrel increase in crude supplies for the week ended Feb. 20. Analysts were looking for a climb of less than half that. “Given where the price is, more rigs are going out of operation which itself is going to have an impact on supply soon,” said Aslam, ahead of the latest rig data. Meanwhile, the U.S. consumer sentiment data were “very bullish, which means that consumers are willing to spend more—which translates in more energy demand,” he said. At the same time, “we are seeing sign of growth in the Eurozone, which will also help to boost the demand for crude.”