U.S. oil futures settled slightly higher on Wednesday as traders weighed risks to global crude supplies amid sanctions on Russia and the potential for a full invasion of Ukraine.
Price action
- West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery rose 19 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $92.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
- April Brent crude the global benchmark, ended flat at $96.84 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, holding ground at the highest finish since 2014.
- March natural-gas futures rose 2.8% to $4.623 per million British thermal units.
- March gasoline 2.725 a gallon and March heating oil tacked on 0.4% to $2.829 a gallon.
Market drivers
Crude rose on Tuesday as investors reacted to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to deploy troops to separatist regions of Ukraine, fanning fears of a full-scale invasion and prompting the announcement of sanctions by the U.S. and its allies against Moscow.
The conflict in Ukraine “significantly increases the risk of disruptions to Russian supply and sanctions,” said Pat Thaker, editorial director, Middle East & Africa at Economist Intelligence Unit. “While the Ukraine crisis remains fluid, [the] extremely tight energy market is facing significant risk premium.” If a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal is reached, that would “ease some of the pressure, but not enough to stop oil prices inching towards triple digits,” said Thaker.
Still, some analysts said the announced measures against Russia, and remarks by Biden administration officials, have lowered concerns about sanctions affecting the flow of crude oil. “Sanctions announced up until now should not have much impact on Russian oil exports,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, in a note. “Local banks which are heavily involved within the commodities industry have been left untouched.”
President Joe Biden on Tuesday said the U.S. was sanctioning two Russian banks as well as the country’s sovereign debt, as he blamed Moscow for what he called the beginning of an invasion of Ukraine. Germany halted the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the U.S. sanctioned the construction company behind the pipeline, which was slated to boost flows of natural gas from Russia to Western Europe.
Weekly U.S. petroleum supply data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Thursday, a day later than usual due to Monday’s Presidents Day holiday. On average, analysts expect the report to show inventory declines of 300,000 barrels for crude and 1.1 million barrels each for gasoline and distillates, according to an S&P Global Platts survey.
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