Brent Crude was up 18 cents, or 0.28%, at $65.42 a barrel, still close to its highest levels since January 2020. WTI Crude settled 3 cents lower at $61.67 per barrel. Both contracts rose more than $1 earlier before retreating.
“Vaccine news is helping oil, as the likely removal of mobility restrictions over the coming months on the back of vaccine roll outs should further boost the oil demand and price recovery,” UBS oil analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. But, tempering the upbeat mood, the chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said the U.S. economic recovery remained “uneven and far from complete” and it would be “some time” before the central bank considered changing policies it had adopted to help the country back to full employment.
Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said the recent oil price rise was buoyed by upbeat price forecasts from U.S. brokers. Goldman Sachs expects Brent prices to reach $70 per barrel in the second quarter from the $60 it predicted previously, and $75 in the third quarter from $65 forecast earlier. Morgan Stanley, which expects Brent to reach $70 in the third quarter, said new COVID-19 cases were falling while “mobility statistics are bottoming out and are starting to improve”. Bank of America said Brent prices could temporarily spike to $70 per barrel in the second quarter.
In the United States, traffic at the Houston ship channel was slowly returning to normal after last week’s winter storm, although production was not expected to fully restart soon. Some U.S. shale producers forecast lower oil output in the first quarter. Stockpiles of U.S. crude oil and refined products likely declined last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday, due to the disruption in Texas.
