Oil prices rebounded during Tuesday’s trading to tally a gain of more than 9% over the past three trading sessions. Analysts attributed the turnaround to a weaker U.S. dollar, violence in Ukraine and the Middle East and volatility tied to crude options expiration.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for delivery in March settled at $53.53 a barrel, up 75 cents, or 1.4%, from Friday’s settlement. U.S. markets were closed on Monday for Presidents Day and there was no settlement for Nymex WTI crude. Prices on Tuesday had fallen to lows under $51. The expiration of options on Nymex March crude futures contracts at Tuesday’s close fed volatility for the session. March crude futures contracts expire at the close on Friday. Brent crude for April delivery settled $1.13, or 1.8%, higher at $62.53 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange.
As the Federal Open Market Committee pushes the agenda on a “fed funds hike, then U.S. Treasury prices go down and demand for the U.S. dollar goes down,” said Richard Hastings, macro strategist at Global Hunter Securities. “This weakens the U.S. dollar and supports oil prices.” Geopolitical risks, meanwhile, are “increasing steadily,” said Hastings. Violence in Ukraine continued and Egypt entered the broadening conflict with Islamic State.
Back in the U.S., a train carrying crude oil derailed and burst into flames in rural West Virginia, “The market probably cannot yet quantify what this means for national oil prices,” said Hastings. The U.S. oil market has been keenly focused on supply risks posed by the weekly supply reports. The report is due Thursday from the U.S. Energy Information Administration — a day late due to Monday’s holiday. The American Petroleum Institute’s weekly report on inventories is slated for Wednesday.