Oil prices slowed their upward trek this week, but not before WTI crude futures prices strode through one of the longest streaks of daily gains in recent memory. WTI futures rose every day upon opening from February 2 until February 10, adding $6.46 a barrel in just seven sessions. Prices eased on Thursday and Friday, yet markets were sanguine about the downturn, already amazed at the gains.
Oil prices this morning are heading back up despite predictions that stock markets will pull back with profit taking today. WTI prices remain above $58 a barrel currently, the highest prices since January 2020. WTI crude futures prices opened Monday at $57.06 a barrel, and prices strengthened midweek on unexpected inventory declines, hitting $58.91 a barrel on Wednesday. WTI prices opened at $57.94 a barrel today and have regained the territory above $58 a barrel. Gasoline prices stagnated this week, though diesel prices showed weekly gains, supported by severe winter storms. These storms also reportedly cut into gasoline demand. Futures prices for both products are rising currently, raising curiosity as to whether the flattening of the price trend was only temporary, and whether oil prices will outperform stock markets today.
The past year has been tumultuous. The weekly average futures prices from January 2020 through the current week of February 2021, WTI prices started January 2020 at $57 a barrel, and the coronavirus already had been detected in China. On March 11, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic. California was the first state in the U.S. to issue a stay-at-home order, and 41 other states followed in March and April. The price of WTI crude futures fell to a weekly average low of $27.66 a barrel in April. (Note: Charts would show more volatility if daily or hourly highs and lows were used, but weekly averages show the longer-term trend more clearly.) There was some price recovery in the summer, but prices languished as the pandemic worsened again in the autumn. This recent price rally, however, has brought WTI futures prices above their pre-pandemic levels. Gasoline futures prices fell more sharply than diesel futures prices, but they also have surpassed their pre-pandemic levels this week. Diesel prices stagnated throughout spring and summer, but they began to trend up strongly in the autumn. Diesel futures prices remain below their pre-pandemic levels.
Prices have been strengthened by progress on the fight against the virus, the prospect of additional federal stimulus, continued support from the Fed, a drop in inventories, OPEC+ restraint, and recent upward revisions in forecasts of demand from international experts at OPEC and the IEA. Yesterday, President Biden announced that the U.S. has secured the purchase of 200 million additional doses of coronavirus vaccine, and that the White House continues to make progress on another round of stimulus spending and a longer-term economic recovery plan.
