Oil futures finished below $42 a barrel on Monday to mark their lowest settlement in almost six-and-half years, as traders continued to fret over a global crude glut and analysts predicted declines in demand and prices in the coming weeks.
September West Texas Intermediate crude fell 63 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $41.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That’s the lowest settlement price for a front-month contract since March 3, 2009. “Investor focus remains on the global supply glut and production surplus, underscored by headlines that [the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries] may reach a record level of output later this year as Iranian production is ramped up and exports resume,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor of The 7:00’s Report.
“There is still a lot of momentum behind this oil sell off,” he said. “Until we see the downtrend dating back to late June…decidedly broken, and the early signs of a bottom forming on the charts, we will remain bearish on WTI prices for the time being,” he said. Even so, Nymex prices ended above the intraday low of $41.64, according to FactSet data. The Nymex expiration of options on the September crude futures contracts Monday, as well as the expiration of September crude futures contracts on Thursday contributed to market volatility, said Richey. There’s some chatter surrounding the planned bankruptcy of Samson Resources, suggesting it may be the first of many oil and gas companies declaring bankruptcy—a trend that could, at some point, hurt production, said Richey.
On London’s ICE Futures exchange Monday, October Brent crude ended down 45 cents, or 0.9%, at $48.74 a barrel after seesawing between gains and losses. In a weekly report, analysts at Morgan Stanley said they have “concerns about crude fundamentals and prices in [the second half of 2015] and 2016.” The bank warned that oil demand is already near peak seasonal levels and will fall in the coming weeks as summer demand wanes. Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures, pointed out that refinery runs are expected to experience a seasonal decline over the next two months and that may translate into higher inventories at the Nymex crude futures delivery point at Cushing, Okla. Nymex oil futures have fallen for the last seven consecutive weeks, losing roughly 29% of their value. Last week, futures touched a fresh six-year low of $41.35 a barrel in intraday trading.
Bearish data included an increase in the U.S. oil-rig count by two in the latest week to 672, marking the fourth consecutive week of increases. In other oil-related news, U.S. oil companies are expected to get approval to trade oil with Mexico, in a move that market observers are calling a milestone in loosening a four-decade ban on selling U.S. crude overseas and which may help support oil prices.