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NYMEX Crude $ 35.70 DN $1.0900
NY Harbor ULSD $1.0889 DN $0.0428
NYMEX Gasoline $1.3770 DN $0.0246
NEWS
Oil futures ended lower in a choppy trading session Monday, dragged down by skepticism that a global agreement to freeze output levels would be reached later this month.
Major global oil producers, including both members and nonmembers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, are scheduled to meet in Doha on April 17 to discuss a potential freezing of oil output. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery fell for a second day, dropping $1.09, or 3%, to settle at $35.70 a barrel—its lowest level since March 3. On Friday, the U.S. benchmark fell 4%.
June Brent crude the global benchmark, dropped 98 cents, or 2.5%, to end at $37.69 a barrel. “All the hope connected to the April 17 meeting is now lost, and we are probably starting on the process down to $35 a barrel,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, a commodities analyst at SEB markets. But others said it was too early to give up hope for some sort of deal. Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago, described the Saudi comments as a negotiating tactic. “The Saudis want to show that if the players at this meeting do not come to an agreement then oil prices will falter,” Flynn said, in a note. “Of course while the Saudis talk tough the truth is they need a deal to freeze production as badly as anyone.” Saudi Arabia said Friday it would only freeze production if Iran, a fellow member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, agreed to freeze as well. Iran’s oil minister on Sunday said the country’s oil exports jumped again in March, potentially undermining a global deal to limit crude output and raise prices.
Output from major non-OPEC producer Russia hit a record high in March, eroding market confidence that the global supply glut is tapering off. Russia’s oil production hit post-Soviet highs of 10.912 million barrels a day, according to the Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit. The figures reflect a 2.1% rise from March 2015. But although current fundamentals are unlikely to support crude prices above $45 a barrel this year according to analysts, there could be some substantial deviation between the $30 and $40 marks depending on several factors which could impact the market. In a note released Monday, Barclays warned of several factors that could seriously affect the fragile oil markets.
The bank added that it still expects the global crude surplus to narrow, but the idea that the market surplus will seamlessly fall to 800,000 barrels a day from 1.7 million barrels a day is false.