U.S. oil prices settled lower Friday, but gained more than 9% for the month of June, as traders awaited the outcome of Sino-U.S. trade talks in Japan Saturday and meetings early next week between key oil producers. Traders are eager to hear of any progress in Sino-U.S. trade discussions at the Group of 20 meetings, which could help to support expectations for oil consumption by the two largest economies in the world.

Also in focus was next week’s gathering of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which should include a production update and potential commentary on tensions between the U.S. and Iran, friction that is seen posing a risk to oil production and shipping. “The duration of the U.S. and China trade war is the single most important factor” in the decision making process by OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, related to the production cut agreement, said Rob Thummel, portfolio manager at investment firm Tortoise. “Talks, signals, and even better— an agreement—between the U.S. and China at the G20 this weekend will dictate the OPEC+ decision.”

Meanwhile, OPEC and its allies will hold meetings on Monday and Tuesday, after the original date was moved from June 25-26. The meetings come as tensions between the U.S. and Iran have grown after Iran shot down a U.S. surveillance drone over the Strait of Hormuz earlier this month. OPEC, meanwhile, is poised to extend its oil production-cut agreement into the second half of this year, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing the cartel and Saudi officials. Some OPEC members are expected to argue for bigger output curbs, but the Saudis are unlikely to back those proposals, the report said. The agreement, which began at the start of this year and expires June 30, called on the OPEC+ alliance to cut production by a collective 1.2 million barrels a day. OPEC must consider the “increasing role of the U.S. as a global supplies of crude oil,” said Thummel, as U.S. oil production has been increasing despite an 11% year-to-date decline in the oil rig count.