Price action

• March West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.59, or 1.7%, to settle at $93.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
• April Brent crude, the global benchmark, added $1.53, or 1.6%, at $94.81 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Both WTI and Brent closed Monday at their highest since September 2014.
• March natural gas rose 9.5% to $4.717 per million British thermal units.
• March gasoline rose 0.3% to $2.677 a gallon, while March heating oil fell nearly 0.1% to $2.858 a gallon.

Market drivers

Oil prices fell back Tuesday after Russia said it was returning some troops to base after completing military exercises. On Wednesday, Moscow said more units were being pulled back.

But NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday said there were no signs of any de-escalation on the ground. “On the contrary, it appears that Russia continues the military buildup,” he told reporters ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels.

U.S. President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that a Russian pullback had not been confirmed and that an invasion remained “distinctly possible.”

The driver of oil prices going forward will continue to be the situation in Ukraine, Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, told MarketWatch.

If there is an invasion, there may be a “substantial price spike, especially since supplies are tight and we are about to start talking about the higher demand driving season,” he said. However, if there is “evidence of Russia pulling back troops from the border, we could see prices head south of the $90 level.”

Meanwhile, natural-gas futures rallied, buoyed by colder-than-expected U.S. weather forecasts, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group. There’s also “spillover support” from Russia-Ukraine tensions, which supports the possibility of stronger U.S. natural-gas exports, he said.

Supply data

The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.1 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 11.

On average, analysts had forecast a decline of 200,000 barrels, according to a poll conducted by S&P Global Platts. The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday  reported a 1.1 million-barrel decrease.

The EIA data also showed crude stocks in storage edged down by 1.9 million barrels at the Cushing, Okla., Nymex delivery hub and fell by 2.7 million barrels in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

There were also weekly inventory declines of 1.3 million barrels for gasoline and 1.6 million barrels for distillates, the EIA said. The S&P Global Platts survey expected supply declines of 900,000 barrels for gasoline and 1 million barrels for distillates.