Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT”, Make sure you’re completely full of fuel by 23:00 CST tonight! – Wednesday prices will JUMPUp 8 Cents ~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 69.16 UP $2.1400
NYMEX ULSD $2.2514 UP $0.0805
NYMEX Gas $2.0183 UP $0.0690
NEWS
The January WTI trading session settled at 69.16 (+2.14) [+3.36%], had a high of 69.37, a low of 66.53. Cash price is at 67.03 (-1.65), while open interest for CLF25 is at 348,664. CLF25 settled above its 5 day (68.18), below its 20 day (69.37), below its 50 day (69.57), below its 100 day (71.78), below its 200 day (73.63) and below its year-to-date (73.37) moving averages. The COT report (Futures and Options Summary) as of 11/12 showed commercials with a net short position of -235,418 (a increase in long positions by +4,726 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +211,700 (a decrease in short positions by -12,226 from the previous week).
Markets are responding to President Biden’s shift in policy regarding Ukraine’s use of American missiles to strike targets within Russia. This decision comes with only two months remaining in his presidency and directly opposes President-elect Trump’s commitment to negotiate a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine upon taking office. Previously, President Putin warned that any Ukrainian use of American-made missiles on Russian soil would be viewed as an act of war by the United States.
China’s oil demand continues to show more signs of weakness, as Reuters reported a significant reduction in the country’s crude oil surplus in October. The surplus dropped to 550,000 barrels per day for October, down from 930,000 barrels per day in September. However domestic crude production rose 2.5% year-over-year to 4.04 million bpd, while imports reached 10.53 million bpd. China’s Shanghai CSI 300 Index closed 0.46% lower today and is 4.43% lower over the last 5 sessions.
Western Europe’s largest crude oil refinery, the Johan Sverdrup operated in Norway and owned by Equinor, suffered a power outage this morning. Equinor said work to bring the oilfield back online was underway, though no set time figure was given as to when it would be.
Saudi Arabia posted their largest export figure in three months, the Joint Organizations Data Initiative reported this morning. Exports for the Kingdom increased by 80,000 barrels per day, bringing it to a total of 5.75 mb/d. Starting in January OPEC+ plans to add 180,000 barrels per day, gradually restoring 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of next year. OPEC+ is currently withholding 5.86 million barrels per day (roughly 5.7% of global crude demand). Last week OPEC+ cut their global oil demand forecast for this year and for 2025 for the fourth consecutive month. The institution sees oil consumption increasing by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024, averaging 104 million barrels per day globally, this is 107,000 barrels per day less than the previous forecast. For 2025 OPEC+ predicts that daily global demand will increase by 1.5 million barrels, 103,000 barrels less than the previous forecast. OPEC+ cited the lessening demand out of China, India and Africa as reasons for lowering the forecast. OPEC+ is scheduled to have their next meeting on December 1st.
Last week The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised their global demand growth forecast for 2024 from 862,000 barrels per day to 921,000 barrels per day, this figure is less than half that was recorded in 2023. The IEA lowered their demand growth forecast for 2025 to 990,000 barrels per day, citing supply glut concerns. The IEA is predicting a surplus of over 1 million barrels a day for 2025. Last week’s EIA Petroleum Status Report showed U.S. Commercial crude oil inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels, higher than the 300,000 barrel increase that was forecasted. Seasonally U.S. crude inventories are about 4.6% below their 5 year average. The inventory for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve grew slightly from 387.3 million barrels to 387.8 million barrels. Crude imports increased by 269,000 barrels per day, averaging 6.5 million barrels per day. Domestic crude oil production was lowered by 100,000 million barrels per day. American crude oil refineries operated at 91.4% capacity. The American Petroleum Institute reported that commercial inventories decreased by 770,000 barrels at the Cushing Hub, against a forecast for a million barrel build. Elsewhere Morgan Stanley cut its demand forecast for this year to 800,000 barrels per day and lowered their barrel price forecast for the first quarter of 2025 to $72.
Hurricane Sara is no more and has been downgraded to a Tropical Rainstorm, tracking across the Gulf Coast, it is expected to bring heavy flooding in the region according to AccuWeather.
Tonight Fueling Strategy: Please “FILL AS NEEDED TONIGHT”~ Be Safe Today!
Tuesday Fueling Strategy: Keep Your Tanks Topped Today, Tonight Before 23:00 CST have tanks completely Full of Fuel – Wednesday look for diesel to go UP $
Fueling Strategy: Please “keep Your Tanks Topped Today, Tonight Before 23:00 CST have completely Full of Fuel” Prices are DOWN today 4 Cents and will go UP 1.5 Cents Thursday ~ Be Safe Today!
Fueling Strategy: Please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY OR BETTER YET WAIT TO FUEL UNTIL WEDNESDAY AM”, Wednesday prices will DROP 4 Cents ~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 68.04 DN $2.3400
NYMEX ULSD $2.1976 DN $0.0413
NYMEX Gas $1.9570 DN $0.0555
NEWS
The December WTI trading session settled at 68.04 -2.34, had a high of 70.56, a low of 67.92. Cash price is at 70.39 (-2.00), while open interest for CLZ24 is at 279,129. CLZ settled above its 5 day (70.92), above its 20 day (70.06), above its 50 day (69.92), below its 100 day (72.74) and below its 200 day (74.24) moving-averages. The COT report (Futures and Options Summary) as of 10/29 showed commercials with a net short position of -211,631 (a decrease in short positions by 18,244 compared to the prior report) to non-commercials who are net long +182,643 (a decrease in long positions by 21,347 compared to the prior report).
The Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress held policy meetings last week. China did end up passing the issuance of 1.4 trillion yuan in local debt, which was expected, but did not announce any other major stimulus packages, which in my view was not enough to shrug off bearish economic China sentiment for traders. Weekend data out of China showed China’s Consumer-Price Index decreased from the previous month, coming in at 0.3% for October, which was below economists forecast of 0.4%, while China’s Producer-Price Index declined for the 25th straight month and had a 2.9% fall from the previous month. This was the worst consumer price growth for China in four months. Saudi Arabia also lowered their crude delivery forecast for China to 36.5 million barrels for December, the second consecutive month of lower shipments and roughly ~10 million less barrels than were shipped in October. Reuters reported this morning that U.S. crude exports rebounded in China in the month of October to 130,000 barrels per day, citing tracking data from Kpler, exports in August were previously near 4 year lows. On Friday China will put out fresh industrial output numbers for October. The Shanghai CSI 300 Index closed higher by +0.66%.
Fueling Strategy: Please “PARTIAL FILL ONLY OR BETTER YET WAIT TO FUEL UNTIL SUNDAY AM”, Sunday prices will DROP5 Cents ~ Be Safe Today!
NYEX Crude $ 70.38 DN $1.9800
NYMEX ULSD $2.2389 DN $0.0475
NYMEX Gas $2.0125 DN $0.0411
NEWS
December WTI crude oil Friday closed down -1.98, and December RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0411. Crude oil and gasoline prices Friday were under pressure after Chinese stimulus measures were seen as underwhelming, which may keep Chinese economic growth and energy demand subdued. Also, Friday’s dollar strength weighed on energy prices. In addition, crude oil prices are being undercut by speculation that President-elect Trump’s policies will increase US crude production and that new tariffs may slow China’s economy.
Friday’s Chinese stimulus announcement fell short of hopes for more measures to stimulate consumer demand in China and revive its slumping housing market. The Chinese government announced a 10-trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) multi-year program to refinance local debt, disappointing analysts looking for more steps to contend with China’s slowing economy. Friday’s stronger-than-expected global economic news supported energy demand and crude prices. The University of Michigan US Nov consumer sentiment index rose +2.5 to a 7-month high of 73.0, stronger than expectations of 71.0. Also, the Japan Sep leading index CI rose +2.5 to a 4-month high of 109.4, stronger than expectations of 109.0. Crude demand in China has weakened and is a bearish factor for oil prices. According to Chinese customs data, China Oct crude imports fell -2% m/m and -9% y/y to 44.7 MMT, and crude imports year-to-date are down -3.4% y/y at 457.074 MMT. China is the world’s second-largest crude consumer.
Crude has support from Sunday’s news that OPEC+ will delay its 180,000 bpd crude production increase by a month, the second straight month that the supply increase has been postponed. OPEC’s Oct crude production rose +370,000 bpd to 26.9 million bpd.Bellicose comments from Iran on Monday were bullish for crude when Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned of a “crushing response” to Israel’s recent air strikes on Iran. Also, a report by the Wall Street Journal Sunday said that Iran is planning a counterattack on Israel involving more powerful warheads and other weapons. An escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel could widen the conflict in the Middle East and disrupt the region’s crude supplies. A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -8.2% w/w to 51.44 million bbl in the week ended November 1.
A decline in Russian crude exports is bullish for crude. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports fell by -530,000 bpd to 3.02 million bpd in the week to November 3, a 6-week low. Separately, Russia’s Energy Ministry reported on October 23 that Russia’s Sep crude production was 8.97 million bpd, down -13,000 bpd from Aug and just below the 8.98 million bpd output target it agreed to with OPEC+.
Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of November 1 were -4.6% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.4% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -5.9% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending November 1 was unchanged w/w at a record 13.5 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending November 8 were unchanged at 479 rigs, just above the 2-1/2 year low of 477 rigs posted in the week ending July 19. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT”, Make sure you’re completely full of fuel by 23:00 CST tonight! – Today (FRIDAY) prices are down 3.5 Cents but will goUp 2 Cents Saturday AM Partial fill only 35 gallons or less, then Look for prices to drop from 3 to 5 Cents Sunday~ Be Safe Today!
Fueling Strategy: Please “KEEP YOUR TANKS TOPPED TODAY/TONIGHT”, Make sure you’re completely full of fuel by 23:00 CST tonight! – Today prices are down 3.5 Cents but will goUp 2 Cents Saturday AM~ Be Safe Today!
